The War's Human and Financial Costs, with Earlier Wars for Scale, 2026
Every count puts Iranian deaths in the thousands by early April, though counters disagree on how many were civilians, while US deaths are far below Iraq's and official costs reach tens of billions. [1][2][3][9][11][16][23]
Wounded in action
Wounded in action, and deaths split into hostile and non-hostile, in each month since the war began, as recorded by the Defense Department's casualty database. Data extracted 28 October 2026; October is a part month.
Service members wounded in the month, by calendar month of the casualty
Wounded in action, and deaths split into hostile and non-hostile, in each month since the war began, as recorded by the Defense Department's casualty database. Data extracted 28 October 2026; October is a part month. Read as wounded in action: Service members wounded in the month. Dashed segments cross 1 definitional break in the source, explained in Method Changes below this graph. 4 dated events are numbered on a strip under the graph and listed below it. Use the Table switch to see every value.
- Wounded in action
Events marked above
Ceasefire
US strikes on Iran resume
US blockade of Iranian ports resumes
President pledges no strikes before the midterms
Source: Associated Press (via WCAX) [21]
Vertical dashed lines mark measurement changes. See method changes.
Source: US Department of Defense, Defense Casualty Analysis System [23]
Observations 1
Wounded rose with each round of fighting
Method Changes
2026-07: Casualties split into a second category
"This summer the Pentagon split deaths and injuries in the war into two separate categories: one for Operation Epic Fury and one listed as 'overseas operations,' covering casualties since July." Most casualties from July onward are recorded under Overseas Operations. [23]
Deaths, hostile and non-hostile
Service members who died in the month, by calendar month of the casualty
Wounded in action, and deaths split into hostile and non-hostile, in each month since the war began, as recorded by the Defense Department's casualty database. Data extracted 28 October 2026; October is a part month. Read as deaths, hostile and non-hostile: Service members who died in the month. Dashed segments cross 1 definitional break in the source, explained in Method Changes below this graph. 4 dated events are numbered on a strip under the graph and listed below it. Use the Table switch to see every value.
- Hostile deaths
- Non-hostile deaths
Events marked above
Ceasefire
US strikes on Iran resume
US blockade of Iranian ports resumes
President pledges no strikes before the midterms
Source: Associated Press (via WCAX) [21]
Vertical dashed lines mark measurement changes. See method changes.
Source: US Department of Defense, Defense Casualty Analysis System [23]
Observations 1
Method Changes
2026-07: Casualties split into a second category
"This summer the Pentagon split deaths and injuries in the war into two separate categories: one for Operation Epic Fury and one listed as 'overseas operations,' covering casualties since July." Most casualties from July onward are recorded under Overseas Operations. [23]
About this data
Full published range: 2026-02–2026-10. Every plotted line runs the whole of it – DCAS publishes monthly tables from February 2026 (Operation Epic Fury) and from June 2026 ("Overseas Operations"). Each value here is the sum of the two categories' published monthly values; months a category does not list count as zero. The deaths add up to the DCAS category totals (15 + 7 = 22) and the wounded to 417 + 448 = 865.
Wounded in action
Sum of the Epic Fury and Overseas Operations monthly "tot_wia" values.
Deaths, hostile and non-hostile
Hostile deaths are the monthly "tot_kia" column (killed in action and died of wounds; it sums to the 7 + 4 hostile deaths in the category tables). Non-hostile deaths are the "tot_acc" column (accidents, illness, undetermined and pending; it sums to the 8 + 3 non-hostile deaths).
Deaths in Iran from the war, by counter, early April 2026 (and the government count to 21 July)
Deaths each counter reports, split into civilians, military, and deaths it does not classify. HRANA to 7 April and Hengaw to 8 April cover the 40 days to the ceasefire; the Iranian authorities' count, relayed by WHO, runs to 21 July and is not split.
Civilian · People killed
- HRANA, to 7 April1,701
- Hengaw, to 8 April1,030
- Iranian authorities via WHO, to 21 July0
Show all breakdowns
| Category | Civilian | Military | Not classified by the counter | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HRANA, to 7 April | 1,701 | 1,221 | 714 | 3,636 |
| Hengaw, to 8 April | 1,030 | 6,620 | 0 | 7,650 |
| Iranian authorities via WHO, to 21 July | 0 | 0 | 3,375 | 3,375 |
Source: HRANA (Human Rights Activists News Agency) [1]; Hengaw Organization for Human Rights [2]; World Health Organization [3]
Observations 3
At least 1,701 Iranian civilians were killed by early April, by HRANA's minimum count
HRANA counted 1,701 civilians killed by the April ceasefire, including at least 254 children. 1 It counts incident by incident, takes minimums, and warns of undercounting.
By Hengaw's count, most of those killed were military
About this data
HRANA publishes the three parts (1,701 civilians, 1,221 military, 714 unclassified) but no total; the 3,636 total and the 46.8% civilian share (1,701 ÷ 3,636) are our arithmetic. Hengaw publishes 7,650 killed, 1,030 civilians (13.5%) and 6,620 military, which add up. The authorities' 3,375 deaths have no civilian–military split, so all of it is shown as not classified. Each counter is a separate bar; none is merged with another. All are minimums or reported counts, not estimates of the true total.
How each count of Iranian deaths works
What each counter covers and how it counts. Only the first two separate civilians, and their counts stop at the April ceasefire.
| Counter | Covers | Deaths | Civilians | Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HRANA | 28 Feb – 7 Apr | civilian, military and unclassified listed separately | 1,701 [1] | Incident by incident, minimum values; excludes state-media totals |
| Hengaw | 28 Feb – 8 Apr | 7,650 [2] | 1,030 [2] | Not published |
| Iranian authorities (via WHO) | 28 Feb – 21 Jul | 3,375 [3] | Not split | Reported by national authorities; WHO does not count |
| Iranian Red Crescent (via UN mission) | 28 Feb – 3 Mar | 787 [7] | Not split | Single statement |
| Airwars | 40-day war; June onward | Incidents, not deaths [5] | — | Tracks and publishes civilian-harm incidents |
Sources: HRANA (Human Rights Activists News Agency) [1]; Hengaw Organization for Human Rights [2]; World Health Organization [3]; Airwars [5]; UN Human Rights Council [7]
Observations 2
No count covers the fighting after April except the government's
HRANA's and Hengaw's counts end at the April ceasefire. 1 2 After that, only the authorities' totals and Airwars' incident tallies exist. 3 5
Airwars tracked 267 civilian-harm incidents before the ceasefire and 34 more after strikes resumed in June. 5 WHO notes the authorities have yet to publish cumulative figures. 3
Other reports reuse HRANA's figures
Airwars' one-month report of at least 1,443 civilians killed is HRANA's count, not a separate one. 6
People displaced inside Iran, against its population, as of 21 July 2026
WHO's estimate of people displaced in Iran, and the deaths reported by the Iranian authorities, each shown as a share of Iran's 2025 population (World Bank).
People
- Displaced (WHO estimate)3,200,000 · 3.5%
- Deaths reported by the authorities3,375 · 0%
- Population of Iran, 202592,417,681 · 100%
Source: World Health Organization [3]; World Bank [4]
About this data
WHO labels its displacement figure an estimate ("All numbers are estimates"). The share is our arithmetic: 3,200,000 ÷ 92,417,681 = 3.5%. The population is the World Bank's 2025 figure (WDI SP.POP.TOTL, last updated 8 October 2026). Population is shown as the 100% reference bar.
Estimates of what the war has cost the US military, by estimator and date, April–October 2026
Each published estimate of the war's cost to the Defense Department, in the order of the date it runs to. Values are in billions of US dollars, not adjusted for inflation.
US$ billions
- AEI, to 8 Apr (low end)25
- AEI, to 8 Apr (high end)35
- Pentagon, testimony 29 Apr25
- CSIS, 23 Jun (range 34–42)40
- DoD Inspector General, through June33.4
- CBO, to 1 Aug38
- Pentagon to Congress, to 3 Sep43.6
- Hegseth, July projection to end of Sep37.5
- Pentagon to Congress, reported by AP 29 Oct47.1
Source: Roll Call [9]; NPR (via KASU) [10]; Congressional Budget Office [11]; Center for Strategic and International Studies [12]; American Enterprise Institute [13]; Associated Press (via WCAX) [22]
Observations 2
Official estimates have risen from $25 billion to over $40 billion
About this data
Values are US$ billions (the chart's "count" unit is used because the chart has no dollar unit). AEI published a range ($25–35 bn), shown as its two ends; CSIS's central estimate is shown, with its $34–42 bn range in the label. Roll Call reports CBO's figure as $38.1 bn "through July"; CBO's letter says "approximately $38 billion" as of 1 August. Hegseth's $37.5 bn was a projection to the end of September made in July. AP's $47.1 bn is "the latest estimate the Pentagon has provided to Congress", reported 29 October; AP does not give the date it runs to. Estimators count different things (CBO and DoD include replacing munitions and equipment), so the bars are not one series.
US military deaths: the Iran war (to 28 October 2026) and the Iraq and Afghanistan operations
Total US service member deaths, hostile and non-hostile, in each operation as recorded by the Defense Department.
US service members killed
- Iran war, Feb–Oct 202622
- Operation New Dawn (Iraq, 2010–11)74
- Operation Enduring Freedom (Afghanistan)2,349
- Operation Iraqi Freedom (2003–10)4,418
Source: Congressional Research Service [16]; US Department of Defense, Defense Casualty Analysis System [23]
Observations 1
About this data
Iran war: DCAS, Operation Epic Fury plus Overseas Operations (15 + 7), extracted 28 October 2026, of which 11 hostile and 11 non-hostile. Earlier operations: CRS RL32492 as of 16 July 2020 (OIF 3,481 hostile and 937 non-hostile). The Iran war has lasted eight months; OIF ran 2003–2010, OEF 2001–2014 and New Dawn 2010–2011, so this compares totals, not rates.
War costs for scale: the Iran war against Iraq and Afghanistan appropriations
The latest Defense Department estimate of the Iran war's cost, beside what Congress appropriated for the Iraq and Afghanistan operations over FY2001–2014. Billions of US dollars, not adjusted for inflation.
US$ billions
- Iran war, Pentagon to 3 Sep 202643.6
- Iran war, Pentagon as reported 29 Oct 202647.1
- Afghanistan and other counterterror (OEF), FY2001–14686
- Iraq (OIF and New Dawn), FY2001–14815
Source: Roll Call [9]; Congressional Research Service [17]; Associated Press (via WCAX) [22]
About this data
Values are US$ billions in the dollars of each year. Iraq is OIF plus New Dawn; Afghanistan is OEF "for Afghanistan and other counterterror operations" (CRS RL33110). The $1.6 trillion often quoted is all post-9/11 operations together, not Iraq alone. The Iran figures are cost estimates; the Iraq and Afghanistan figures are appropriations.
The Iraq war: early cost estimates against what Congress appropriated
The upper end of each total-cost estimate for the Iraq war, with the date it was made, beside the appropriations for Iraq through FY2014. Billions of US dollars.
US$ billions
- Daniels (White House budget office), 200260
- Lindsey (White House economic adviser), Sep 2002200
- Brookings, Aug 2003 (after the invasion)300
- Appropriated for Iraq, FY2001–14815
Source: Congressional Research Service [17]; Council on Foreign Relations [18]
Observations 1
Iraq cost far more than the White House forecast
About this data
Values are US$ billions. Each estimate is shown at its upper end (Daniels $50–60 bn; Lindsey $100–200 bn; Brookings $150–300 bn), which is the most generous reading of the estimates. Brookings' estimate was made in August 2003, five months after the invasion, so it is not a prewar estimate. The CFR task force's March 2003 figure ($20 bn a year "for several years") is a yearly rate, not a total, so it is not charted.
US interceptor stocks, CSIS estimates
CSIS's estimates of US inventories on 27 July 2026, built from budget documents, not Pentagon figures.
- Patriot interceptors
- fewer than 1,000
- THAAD interceptors
- about 250
Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies [14]
Observations 1
CSIS estimates interceptor stocks have been drawn down
About this data
What this measures. Deaths, injuries and displacement in Iran, US military casualties, and estimates of the war's cost to the Defense Department, as of late October 2026. Each figure carries the date it runs to: Iranian independent counts stop in April, costs run to September or later, US casualties to 28 October.
What it does not measure. Deaths in Israel, Iraq, Lebanon and the Gulf states, costs to the wider US economy (see oil, shipping and prices), and Iran's own costs.
US casualty data. DCAS publishes its tables through a JSON interface behind its web app; the series sums its two categories. The July split means a month's casualties appear in one category or the other, so neither category alone is a complete record.
How confident to be. The independent Iranian counts are minimums from organisations working without access to the country. The government count has no split and is relayed by WHO without checking. Cost estimates differ in what they include; none is an audited figure.
Commonly mistaken for. The $1.6 trillion figure for "the Iraq war" is all post-9/11 operations; Iraq's share was $815 billion. 17 The Brookings estimate of $150–300 billion is often called prewar, but was made in August 2003. 18
Related Data
Decisions, Law and Diplomacy: Congress, the President, Ceasefires and Negotiations, 2024–2026
Both chambers of Congress adopted a resolution to end the war, of doubtful legal force, while the administration declared hostilities over and then reported new strikes, and most Americans disapprove. [4][7][10][18][28]
Yes and no votes
Every House roll call on a concurrent resolution directing the President to remove US forces from hostilities with Iran, 5 March to 15 September 2026. The first reading shows yes and no votes; the second shows members who voted against their party's majority.
Members voting, by date of roll call
Every House roll call on a concurrent resolution directing the President to remove US forces from hostilities with Iran, 5 March to 15 September 2026. The first reading shows yes and no votes; the second shows members who voted against their party's majority. Read as yes and no votes: Members voting. Use the Table switch to see every value.
- Yes (end the war)
- No
Source: Office of the Clerk, US House of Representatives [52]
Observations 2
A House majority voted to end the war three times
The House rejected the first three resolutions by margins of seven votes or fewer, including a tie, then adopted the next three, from June to September (chart). 1 3 6
Every vote was on a concurrent resolution under section 5(c) of the War Powers Resolution. The House has held no roll call of any kind since mid-September, as of 29 October (see the chart note).
The resolutions do not bind the President in practice
A concurrent resolution is not sent to the President to sign or veto. CRS calls its effect "uncertain" since the Supreme Court's 1983 Chadha ruling, and Lawfare says it was brought into "serious constitutional doubt". 11 10
A joint resolution would be binding but faces a veto, which two-thirds of each chamber would have to override. 10
Members voting against their party
Members, by date of roll call
Every House roll call on a concurrent resolution directing the President to remove US forces from hostilities with Iran, 5 March to 15 September 2026. The first reading shows yes and no votes; the second shows members who voted against their party's majority. Read as members voting against their party: Members. Use the Table switch to see every value.
- Republicans voting yes
- Democrats voting no
Source: Office of the Clerk, US House of Representatives [52]
Observations 1
Republican defections grew but stayed small
Republicans voting to end the war rose from two in March to seven in September, out of more than 200 Republicans voting. Democrats voting against fell to none from June on (chart). 1 6
In the Senate, Republican yes votes rose from one to four (chart below). With the House this evenly divided, these few members and absences decided each result.
About this data
Full published range: 2026-03-05–2026-09-15. Every plotted line runs the whole of it – The Clerk's 2026 roll calls run to number 314 (16 September 2026); numbers 315 and above returned no file when checked on 29 October 2026, so there has been no House vote of any kind since then. Six of the 314 are Iran war-powers resolutions.
Yes and no votes
Totals from the totals-by-vote field of each roll call. Members voting "present" or not voting are excluded.
Members voting against their party
From the totals-by-party field of each roll call: Republican yea-total and Democratic nay-total.
Yes and no votes
All 14 Senate roll calls on Iran war-powers measures, 4 March to 24 September 2026: motions to discharge or proceed to joint resolutions, and votes on two House concurrent resolutions. The second reading shows senators who voted against their party's majority.
Senators voting, by date of roll call
All 14 Senate roll calls on Iran war-powers measures, 4 March to 24 September 2026: motions to discharge or proceed to joint resolutions, and votes on two House concurrent resolutions. The second reading shows senators who voted against their party's majority. Read as yes and no votes: Senators voting. Use the Table switch to see every value.
- Yes (end the war)
- No
Source: United States Senate [53]
Observations 1
The Senate voted 14 times and succeeded twice
Twelve of the Senate's votes failed. A motion to discharge succeeded in May, but the resolution then failed a motion to proceed. In June the Senate adopted H.Con.Res.86, which the House had passed, so both chambers adopted one resolution (chart). 7 8
The Senate rejected the next House resolution, H.Con.Res.89, by one vote in September. GovTrack's list shows no Iran war-powers vote after that, as of late October. 9
Senators voting against their party
Senators, by date of roll call
All 14 Senate roll calls on Iran war-powers measures, 4 March to 24 September 2026: motions to discharge or proceed to joint resolutions, and votes on two House concurrent resolutions. The second reading shows senators who voted against their party's majority. Read as senators voting against their party: Senators. Use the Table switch to see every value.
- Republicans voting yes
- Democrats voting no
Source: United States Senate [53]
Observations 1
Senate defections were steady at a handful
About this data
Full published range: 2026-03-04–2026-09-24. Every plotted line runs the whole of it – The Senate's own vote list (archived 10 October 2026) and GovTrack's list (captured 26–29 October 2026, latest vote 30 September) show no Iran war-powers vote after 24 September. Party counts are tallied from the member records in each roll-call file; the file for 23 July (vote 207) has no archived copy, so that date has totals only.
Yes and no votes
Yeas and nays as printed in the Senate vote list. A yes vote favours ending the war in every case.
Senators voting against their party
Derived: Republicans recorded "Yea" and Democrats recorded "Nay", counted from the member records of each archived roll-call XML file (votes 46, 58, 69, 79, 88, 113, 118, 129, 174, 184, 192, 216 and 244). The two independents voted yes every time. On 24 June one further Republican voted "Present".
Approve of Trump's handling
Share of US adults who approve of President Trump's handling of the military action against Iran, and who say using force was the right decision, in Pew's two surveys (March and early October 2026). The markers below the chart date the ceasefire, blockade, War Powers letters, memorandum of understanding, strikes and the latest reported plans.
% who approve, by survey fieldwork month
Share of US adults who approve of President Trump's handling of the military action against Iran, and who say using force was the right decision, in Pew's two surveys (March and early October 2026). The markers below the chart date the ceasefire, blockade, War Powers letters, memorandum of understanding, strikes and the latest reported plans. Read as approve of Trump's handling: % who approve. 16 dated events are numbered on a strip under the graph and listed below it. Use the Table switch to see every value.
- All adults
- Rep/lean Rep
- Dem/lean Dem
Events marked above
War Powers report cites Article II
48-hour report on strikes begun 28 February, filed "consistent with" the War Powers Resolution.
Source: The White House (copy published by Just Security) [12]
Ceasefire
The President ordered a two-week ceasefire on 7 April; it was then extended.
Source: The White House (US Government Publishing Office) [14]
US blockade of Iranian ports begins
Source: Lawfare [10]
Letter: hostilities "have terminated"
Known only through quotation by Lawfare and Jack Goldsmith; the letter itself was not found on govinfo.
Source: Lawfare [10]
Iran downs a US Apache; US strikes from 9 June
As reported in the President's War Powers letter of 12 June.
Source: The White House (US Government Publishing Office) [14]
US–Iran memorandum of understanding signed
The President's letter gives 17 June; ISW/CTP calls it "the June 18 MoU".
Source: The White House (US Government Publishing Office) [15]
US strikes on 26 and 28 June
After Iranian attacks on vessels on 25 and 27 June, per the President's letter.
Source: The White House (US Government Publishing Office) [15]
US strikes resume; memorandum breaks down
Blockade reimposed
Source: US Central Command [50]
US strikes in Iraq on Iran-backed militias
US strikes on Iran, including state oil tankers
AP reports no US strike on Iran since early September (as of 28 October).
Source: The White House (US Government Publishing Office) [18]
Trump: no attack before the 3 November midterms
Source: Associated Press (via WCAX) [42]
NYT: plans for a short operation after the midterms
As relayed by ISW/CTP.
Source: Institute for the Study of War and AEI's Critical Threats Project [44]
DNI memo: Iran in "advanced stages" of attack planning
As reported by ISW/CTP; the memo itself could not be fetched.
Source: Institute for the Study of War and AEI's Critical Threats Project [45]
Saudi, Pakistani and Turkish officials in Tehran; Qatari plan
Reported plan: Iran reopens Hormuz, US lifts the blockade, over five days. ISW/CTP reports no progress.
Source: Institute for the Study of War and AEI's Critical Threats Project [47]
US tells allies to prepare for possible renewed strikes
AP, citing two diplomats; no final decision by the President.
Source: Associated Press (via WCAX) [49]
Source: Pew Research Center [54]
Observations 2
Most Americans disapprove, and approval has slipped
In Pew's surveys about a third of adults approve of the President's handling of the war, down slightly since March; Pew's separate question on whether force was the right decision moved the same way (chart). 28 29
Gallup in June and Quinnipiac in March, asking about the military action itself, also found majorities against (charts below). 30 31
Most Republicans still approve, in falling numbers
Say using force was the right decision
% right decision, by survey fieldwork month
Share of US adults who approve of President Trump's handling of the military action against Iran, and who say using force was the right decision, in Pew's two surveys (March and early October 2026). The markers below the chart date the ceasefire, blockade, War Powers letters, memorandum of understanding, strikes and the latest reported plans. Read as say using force was the right decision: % right decision. 16 dated events are numbered on a strip under the graph and listed below it. Use the Table switch to see every value.
- All adults
- Rep/lean Rep
Events marked above
War Powers report cites Article II
48-hour report on strikes begun 28 February, filed "consistent with" the War Powers Resolution.
Source: The White House (copy published by Just Security) [12]
Ceasefire
The President ordered a two-week ceasefire on 7 April; it was then extended.
Source: The White House (US Government Publishing Office) [14]
US blockade of Iranian ports begins
Source: Lawfare [10]
Letter: hostilities "have terminated"
Known only through quotation by Lawfare and Jack Goldsmith; the letter itself was not found on govinfo.
Source: Lawfare [10]
Iran downs a US Apache; US strikes from 9 June
As reported in the President's War Powers letter of 12 June.
Source: The White House (US Government Publishing Office) [14]
US–Iran memorandum of understanding signed
The President's letter gives 17 June; ISW/CTP calls it "the June 18 MoU".
Source: The White House (US Government Publishing Office) [15]
US strikes on 26 and 28 June
After Iranian attacks on vessels on 25 and 27 June, per the President's letter.
Source: The White House (US Government Publishing Office) [15]
US strikes resume; memorandum breaks down
Blockade reimposed
Source: US Central Command [50]
US strikes in Iraq on Iran-backed militias
US strikes on Iran, including state oil tankers
AP reports no US strike on Iran since early September (as of 28 October).
Source: The White House (US Government Publishing Office) [18]
Trump: no attack before the 3 November midterms
Source: Associated Press (via WCAX) [42]
NYT: plans for a short operation after the midterms
As relayed by ISW/CTP.
Source: Institute for the Study of War and AEI's Critical Threats Project [44]
DNI memo: Iran in "advanced stages" of attack planning
As reported by ISW/CTP; the memo itself could not be fetched.
Source: Institute for the Study of War and AEI's Critical Threats Project [45]
Saudi, Pakistani and Turkish officials in Tehran; Qatari plan
Reported plan: Iran reopens Hormuz, US lifts the blockade, over five days. ISW/CTP reports no progress.
Source: Institute for the Study of War and AEI's Critical Threats Project [47]
US tells allies to prepare for possible renewed strikes
AP, citing two diplomats; no final decision by the President.
Source: Associated Press (via WCAX) [49]
Source: Pew Research Center [54]
About this data
Full published range: 2026-03–2026-10. Every plotted line runs the whole of it – Pew asked both questions in March (16–22 March, 3,524 adults) and from 28 September to 4 October (labelled October by Pew). Republicans and Democrats include leaners. Pew prints no Democratic figure for the right-decision question ("one-in-ten" in October), so that line is omitted. Event markers run to 28 October 2026.
Say using force was the right decision
October total is Pew's 34%, "down 4 percentage points from March" (38%).
Approval of the US military action against Iran, by party (Gallup), June 2026
Share of US adults who approve or disapprove of "this U.S. military action against Iran" (Gallup, telephone, 1–15 June 2026, 1,001 adults).
Approve · % of adults
- Republicans79%
- All adults34%
- Independents26%
- Democrats8%
Show all breakdowns
| Category | Approve | Disapprove | No opinion | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All adults | 34% | 63% | 4% | 101% |
| Republicans | 79% | 19% | 2% | 100% |
| Independents | 26% | 68% | 6% | 100% |
| Democrats | 8% | 90% | 2% | 100% |
Source: Gallup [30]
About this data
From the party table for question 24 of Gallup's final topline. Gallup's party groups exclude leaners. Each bar is the sum of the three published shares, which is 101 for all adults because of rounding. Gallup published this question once, so there is no Gallup trend.
Support for the US military action against Iran, by party (Quinnipiac), March 2026
Share of registered voters who support or oppose "the U.S. military action against Iran" (Quinnipiac, 6–8 March 2026, 1,002 registered voters).
Support · % of registered voters
- Republicans85%
- All voters40%
- Independents31%
- Democrats7%
Show all breakdowns
| Category | Support | Oppose | Don't know | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All voters | 40% | 53% | 7% | 100% |
| Republicans | 85% | 11% | 5% | 101% |
| Independents | 31% | 60% | 9% | 100% |
| Democrats | 7% | 89% | 4% | 100% |
Source: Quinnipiac University Poll [31]
Observations 1
Support split almost entirely along party lines
In Quinnipiac's poll a week after the war began, Republicans supported the action and Democrats opposed it by similar margins; independents sat closer to Democrats (chart). 31
About this data
From question 10 of the release. Party groups exclude leaners. Each bar is the sum of the three published shares (101 for Republicans, from rounding).
Should the President have received Congress's approval before acting? By party (Quinnipiac), March 2026
Answers of registered voters to "Do you think President Trump should have received approval from Congress before taking military action against Iran, or not?" (Quinnipiac, 6–8 March 2026).
Should have · % of registered voters
- Democrats92%
- Independents64%
- All voters59%
- Republicans22%
Show all breakdowns
| Category | Should have | Should not have | Don't know | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All voters | 59% | 38% | 3% | 100% |
| Republicans | 22% | 76% | 2% | 100% |
| Independents | 64% | 33% | 3% | 100% |
| Democrats | 92% | 5% | 3% | 100% |
Source: Quinnipiac University Poll [31]
Observations 1
Most voters said Congress should have been asked first
In March, 59% of registered voters said the President should have received approval from Congress before acting, including most independents and about a fifth of Republicans (chart). 31 This is one poll; no later reading was found.
About this data
From question 15 of the release. Each bar is the sum of the three published shares. No other pollster found asked this question, so there is no trend or comparison.
War Powers reports by presidents, and those that started the 60-day clock, 1975–March 2017
Reports submitted to Congress under the War Powers Resolution from 1975 to March 2017, and the number that cited section 4(a)(1), which starts the 60-day withdrawal requirement (CRS).
Reports
- All War Powers reports168
- Reports citing section 4(a)(1)1
Source: Congressional Research Service [11]
Observations 1
Presidents have almost never started the 60-day clock themselves
About this data
CRS R42699, updated 8 March 2019. The one report citing section 4(a)(1) was the 1975 Mayaguez seizure, by which time the operation was over. CRS publishes no count after March 2017.
What has the President said about war and about Iran?
Four statements, from the 2024 campaign to October 2026.
I was the first president in modern times to start no new wars. … Iran is very close to having a nuclear weapon, which would have never happened.
Donald Trump, CandidateConvention acceptance speechSource: The American Presidency Project (UC Santa Barbara) [32] They said: 'He will start a war.' I'm not going to start a war. I'm going to stop wars.
Donald Trump, President-electElection-night remarksSource: The American Presidency Project (UC Santa Barbara) [33] I acted pursuant to my constitutional authority as Commander in Chief … in collective self-defense of our regional allies, including Israel.
Donald Trump, President48-hour War Powers reportSource: The White House (copy published by Just Security) [12] will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections … having productive discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran
Donald Trump, PresidentSocial media postSource: Associated Press (via WCAX) [42]
Sources: The White House (copy published by Just Security) [12]; The American Presidency Project (UC Santa Barbara) [32]; The American Presidency Project (UC Santa Barbara) [33]; Associated Press (via WCAX) [42]
Observations 2
The 2024 campaign promised to stop wars
On election night 2024 the President said "I'm not going to start a war. I'm going to stop wars." The remarks did not mention Iran. 33
The same campaign called Iran "very close" to a weapon
In his 2024 convention speech he said Iran was "very close to having a nuclear weapon" and blamed his predecessor. 32 Both lines were said by the same candidate in the same year.
War Powers letters, 2026
Each letter the President sent Congress under the War Powers Resolution in 2026, by date. Letters from June on report new military action.
Filled marker: major event Hollow: minor
Showing 7 of 7 events
2026
· Reports military action
Strikes on Iran from 28 Feb
Article II; "consistent with" the Act.
Source: The White House (copy published by Just Security) [12]
· Says hostilities have ended · major event
Hostilities that began 28 Feb "have terminated"
No exchange of fire since 7 Apr. Quoted by Lawfare and Goldsmith; letter not found.
Source: Lawfare [10]
· Reports military action
Iran downed a US Apache (8 Jun); US strikes from 9 Jun
House Doc 119-162
Source: The White House (US Government Publishing Office) [14]
· Reports military action
US strikes on 26 and 28 Jun; MoU signed 17 Jun
House Doc 119-167
Source: The White House (US Government Publishing Office) [15]
· Reports military action
US strikes from 7 Jul
House Doc 119-169
Source: The White House (US Government Publishing Office) [16]
· Reports military action
US strikes in Iraq from 27 Jul on Iran-directed militias
House Doc 119-183
Source: The White House (US Government Publishing Office) [17]
· Reports military action
US strikes on Iran from 1 Sep, including state oil tankers
House Doc 119-193
Source: The White House (US Government Publishing Office) [18]
Sources: Lawfare [10]; The White House (copy published by Just Security) [12]; Executive Functions (Jack Goldsmith) [13]; The White House (US Government Publishing Office) [14]; The White House (US Government Publishing Office) [15]; The White House (US Government Publishing Office) [16]; The White House (US Government Publishing Office) [17]; The White House (US Government Publishing Office) [18]
Observations 2
Hostilities were declared over, then new strikes were reported
The 1 May letter said hostilities "have terminated" because there had been no exchange of fire since the ceasefire. 10 The blockade that began in April was still running, and from June the administration filed at least five letters reporting new military action (timeline). 14 18
Goldsmith calls the "no exchange of fire" claim "highly misleading". 13 The 1 May letter is known only through these quotations.
Each new letter treats the strikes as a separate action
The same text makes the President "Commander in Chief".
The Congress shall have Power … To declare War
Earlier uses of force without authorisation, and Congress's votes, 2011–2025
The main roll calls found on earlier operations, and the count of all uses of force since 1798.
| Operation | Vote | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Libya, 2011 | House: authorise the operation (24 Jun 2011) | Failed, 123–295 [20] |
| Libya, 2011 | House: limit funding (24 Jun 2011) | Failed, 180–238 [21] |
| Yemen (Saudi-led war), 2019 | S.J.Res.7: Senate 54–46, House 247–175 | Vetoed; override failed 53–45 (2 May 2019) [22] [23] |
| Iran, 2020 | S.J.Res.68: Senate 55–45, House 227–186 | Vetoed; override failed 49–44 (7 May 2020) [24] [25] |
| Iran, 2025 | S.J.Res.59: Senate (27 Jun 2025) | Failed, 47–53 [26] |
| All uses of force, 1798–2023 | — | "Hundreds of instances"; 11 declarations of war covering five wars [19] |
Sources: Congressional Research Service [19]; Office of the Clerk, US House of Representatives [20]; Office of the Clerk, US House of Representatives [21]; Office of the Clerk, US House of Representatives [22]; United States Senate [23]; Office of the Clerk, US House of Representatives [24]; United States Senate [25]; Senate Democrats (Senate Periodical Press Gallery floor log) [26]
Observations 3
Congress has declared war eleven times, in five wars
The Constitution gives Congress the power "To declare War" and makes the President "Commander in Chief". 51
CRS counts eleven declarations of war covering five wars, and "hundreds of instances" of US forces used abroad in conflict or potential conflict. 19 The administration did not seek authorisation for this war before the 60-day mark. 10
CRS does not code the instances by authorisation, length or scale (see Data still needed).
Every binding attempt since 2011 to end an operation failed
Research finds Congress shapes wars without binding votes
Kriner's study, as described on its publisher's page, finds that Congress "materially shapes the initiation, scope, and duration of major military actions", and that the party balance in Congress helps explain how long conflicts last. 27 The publisher's page gives no effect sizes.
The ceasefire record, April–July 2026
Attacks, strikes and agreements during the ceasefire, from the President's letters and ISW/CTP. No Iranian or neutral record was found.
Filled marker: major event Hollow: minor
Showing 11 of 11 events
2026
– · Both · major event
Two-week ceasefire ordered, then extended
Source: The White House (US Government Publishing Office) [14]
· Iran acted
Engaged a US Army Apache, "forcing its crash landing"
Source: The White House (US Government Publishing Office) [14]
· US acted
Strikes on missile sites, mining, air defences, command
Source: The White House (US Government Publishing Office) [14]
· Both · major event
Memorandum of understanding signed
Source: The White House (US Government Publishing Office) [15]
– · Iran acted
Attacks on neutral-flagged vessels in Hormuz, on 25 and 27 Jun
Source: The White House (US Government Publishing Office) [15]
– · US acted
Strikes on drone, missile and command sites, on 26 and 28 Jun
Source: The White House (US Government Publishing Office) [15]
– · Iran acted
Attacks on several neutral-flagged vessels
Source: The White House (US Government Publishing Office) [16]
· US acted
Strikes resume
Source: The White House (US Government Publishing Office) [16]
– · Iran acted
IRGC Navy announced the strait closed and struck two vessels
Source: Institute for the Study of War and AEI's Critical Threats Project [34]
· US acted
Struck "dozens of Iranian military targets"
Source: Institute for the Study of War and AEI's Critical Threats Project [34]
· US acted
Blockade reimposed
Source: Institute for the Study of War and AEI's Critical Threats Project [34]
Sources: The White House (US Government Publishing Office) [14]; The White House (US Government Publishing Office) [15]; The White House (US Government Publishing Office) [16]; Institute for the Study of War and AEI's Critical Threats Project [34]; US Central Command [50]
Observations 2
Both sides used force during the ceasefire
The President's own letters record Iranian attacks and US strikes during the ceasefire, before and after the memorandum (timeline). 14 15 In each letter the US strikes answer a named Iranian attack.
Every entry comes from the US government or ISW/CTP. No Iranian or neutral record was found to check the sequence.
Negotiations and agreements, 2016–2026
The talks and agreements between the US and Iran, from the 2015 deal to the latest proposals.
Filled marker: major event Hollow: minor
Showing 8 of 8 events
2016
· Agreement
Implementation Day of the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA)
Enrichment capped at 3.67 percent for 15 years, stockpile under 300 kg.
Source: Arms Control Association [40]
2025
– · Talks and proposals
Five rounds of US–Iran talks
The sixth (15 Jun) suspended after Israel's attack. Wikipedia (tertiary).
Source: Wikipedia [41]
2026
· Talks and proposals
Indirect US–Iran talks in Geneva on 17 and 26 Feb
Attended by the IAEA Director General.
· Strikes · major event
US and Israeli strikes; IAEA stops verification in Iran
· Agreement · major event
Memorandum: "Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons"
Also safe passage for shipping.
· Talks and proposals
President rejects Iran's proposal to reopen Hormuz within seven days on conditions
Source: Associated Press (via WCAX) [42]
· Talks and proposals
Qatari plan reported: Hormuz reopened for blockade lifted, over five days
Dispute over sequencing. ISW/CTP citing the NYT.
Source: Institute for the Study of War and AEI's Critical Threats Project [47]
· Talks and proposals
Iran's foreign minister: Tehran "continues to give diplomacy a chance to succeed"
Source: Associated Press (via WCAX) [49]
Sources: The White House (US Government Publishing Office) [15]; International Atomic Energy Agency [38]; Congressional Research Service [39]; Arms Control Association [40]; Wikipedia [41]; Associated Press (via WCAX) [42]; Institute for the Study of War and AEI's Critical Threats Project [47]; Associated Press (via WCAX) [49]
Observations 3
Talks were under way when the strikes began
Iran signed a no-weapons pledge in June
The June memorandum states that "Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons". 39 Its other terms, including any on inspections, have not been published in any source found, so it cannot be compared clause by clause with the 2015 deal.
Where have allies and regional governments stood on the war?
The statements found, not a complete record of allied positions.
We did not participate in these strikes … We condemn Iranian attacks on countries in the region
UK, France and GermanyJoint statement by the E3 leadersSource: UK Government (Prime Minister's Office) [36] launched without United Nations authorisation
Badr al Busaidi, Oman's foreign ministerSource: Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Sultanate of Oman [37] exercise wisdom and pursue political solutions
UAE foreign ministrySource: Associated Press (via WCAX) [49]
Sources: UK Government (Prime Minister's Office) [36]; Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Sultanate of Oman [37]; Associated Press (via WCAX) [49]
Observations 2
Key European allies did not join the strikes
The British, French and German leaders said they "did not participate", while condemning Iran's attacks on its neighbours "in the strongest terms". 36 This list is the statements found, not a complete record of allied positions.
About this data
UN Security Council resolution 2817 (11 March 2026) could not be checked at source, because UN sites refused the fetch. On 26 October 2026 Oman's foreign minister also called for a Gulf non-aggression pact with Iran (ISW/CTP).
The latest events, July–October 2026
Assessments and reports since the ceasefire ended. Most come from one source, named on each entry, and are not official findings.
Showing 8 of 8 events
2026
· Iran's forces, as assessed
ISW/CTP: Iran "continuously made efforts to reconstitute its ballistic missile and drone programs"
From the April ceasefire on.
Source: Institute for the Study of War and AEI's Critical Threats Project [34]
– · Attacks
23 attacks on vessels near Hormuz
Officials told Bloomberg, via ISW/CTP.
Source: Institute for the Study of War and AEI's Critical Threats Project [43]
· US plans and pledges
The President pledges no attack on Iran before the midterms
Source: Associated Press (via WCAX) [42]
· Iran's forces, as assessed
New defence minister plans to rebuild "in mountains and security structures"
ISW/CTP reads his appointment as prioritising missiles.
Source: Institute for the Study of War and AEI's Critical Threats Project [35]
· US plans and pledges
NYT reports plans for "a short and intensive operation" after 3 November
Source: Institute for the Study of War and AEI's Critical Threats Project [44]
· Iran's forces, as assessed
Intelligence chief warns of Iran's "advanced stages" of planning attacks on US targets
As reported by ISW/CTP; the memo itself could not be fetched.
Source: Institute for the Study of War and AEI's Critical Threats Project [45]
· Attacks
Houthis fire missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia
ISW/CTP.
Source: Institute for the Study of War and AEI's Critical Threats Project [46]
· US plans and pledges
AP: allies told to prepare for renewed action and Iranian retaliation
AP's diplomats say the President has made no final decision.
Source: Associated Press (via WCAX) [49]
Sources: Institute for the Study of War and AEI's Critical Threats Project [34]; Institute for the Study of War and AEI's Critical Threats Project [35]; Associated Press (via WCAX) [42]; Institute for the Study of War and AEI's Critical Threats Project [43]; Institute for the Study of War and AEI's Critical Threats Project [44]; Institute for the Study of War and AEI's Critical Threats Project [45]; Institute for the Study of War and AEI's Critical Threats Project [46]; Associated Press (via WCAX) [49]
Observations 4
Iran worked to rebuild missiles and drones, in ISW/CTP's assessment
ISW/CTP assesses that Iran "continuously made efforts to reconstitute its ballistic missile and drone programs" from the April ceasefire. 34 In October it read the new defence minister's appointment, and his plan to rebuild "in mountains and security structures", as prioritising missiles. 35
These are assessments by ISW and AEI's Critical Threats Project, not imagery or official findings.
A new round of strikes is reported to be planned after the midterms
The NYT reported plans for "a short and intensive operation" after 3 November, and AP reports allies were told to prepare for renewed action and Iranian retaliation. 44 49 AP's diplomats say the President has made no final decision.
AP reports no US strike on Iran since early September (as of 28 October). 49
The intelligence chief warned of Iranian attack planning, as reported
ISW/CTP reports that the Director of National Intelligence warned on 23 October that Iran is in the "advanced stages" of planning attacks on US targets in the region. 45 The memo itself could not be fetched, so this rests on ISW/CTP's account.
Fighting spread to shipping and Saudi Arabia in October
Subtleties
Several Senate votes were on procedure, not the resolution
Eleven of the 14 Senate votes were motions to discharge a committee, and one was a motion to proceed. A yes vote on each favoured ending the war, but only the two votes on House resolutions were votes on a resolution itself. 7
Polls asked different questions
Pew asks about the President's handling and about whether force was the right decision; Gallup asks about approval of "this U.S. military action"; Quinnipiac about support for it. Gallup and Quinnipiac exclude leaners from their party groups; Pew includes them. The pollsters are shown separately for this reason. 28 30 31
Most claims about the latest events come from one side
The incident record comes from the President's letters; the reconstitution and October assessments from ISW/CTP, which is affiliated with the American Enterprise Institute; blockade figures from US Central Command. Each is labelled as such above.
About this data
What this measures. Recorded votes in Congress, the President's War Powers letters, public statements, three pollsters' surveys, and the dated record of the ceasefire and talks. It does not measure whether the war is lawful; that is a legal and constitutional question the records inform but do not settle.
As of. House and Senate votes as of 29 October 2026 (no votes after 16 and 30 September respectively). Polls run from March to early October 2026. Events run to 28 October; ISW/CTP's 29 October update was not yet published when checked.
How it compares. Earlier operations come from CRS's list (1798–2023) and its count of War Powers reports (1975–March 2017); neither has a newer edition on EveryCRSReport. The earlier votes table covers the main roll calls found on Libya (2011), Yemen (2019) and Iran (2020, 2025).
How confident to be. The vote counts and letters are primary records. The 1 May letter, the DNI memo, the NYT report and resolution 2817 are known only second-hand. Gallup gives a margin of error of ±4 points; small moves within one pollster's series may be noise.
Commonly mistaken for. "Congress voted to end the war" is true of a concurrent resolution that the President need not sign; it is not a law. Pew's 33% is approval of the President's handling, not of the war as such.
Iran's Government and Its People: Elections, Opinion and Repression, 1980–2026
Turnout has fallen to record lows, few candidates are allowed to stand, and executions and protest killings have reached levels not recorded in decades, with real but narrow signs of moderation. [1][13][20][21][35]
Turnout, first or only round
Votes cast as a share of eligible voters in each presidential election's first (or only) round. The source changes in 2017, marked as a break.
% of eligible voters, by election month
Votes cast as a share of eligible voters in each presidential election's first (or only) round. The source changes in 2017, marked as a break. Read as turnout, first or only round: % of eligible voters. Dashed segments cross 1 definitional break in the source, explained in Method Changes below this graph. 5 dated events are numbered on a strip under the graph and listed below it. Use the Table switch to see every value.
- Turnout
Events marked above
Reformist papers closed
Sixteen publications closed in one week under President Khatami.
Majlis vetting purge
The Guardian Council rejected 3,600 of 8,157 parliamentary candidates, including 83 sitting members.
November 2019 crackdown
Source: Amnesty International [6]
Woman, Life, Freedom protests begin
Source: Freedom House [7]
President Raisi dies; early election
Vertical dashed lines mark measurement changes. See method changes.
Source: Iran Data Portal, Syracuse University [33]
Observations 2
The two lowest presidential turnouts are the last two elections
In 2024 voters elected the one moderate in the field
After Raisi's death, Masoud Pezeshkian, "the sole moderate in an original field of four", won the runoff with 53.7 percent of the vote. 22
Turnout rose to 49.8 percent in the runoff, about ten points above the first round. 22 21 He was one of only six candidates the Guardian Council approved (next chart). 23
Method Changes
2017-05: Source changes to news reports
The Iran Data Portal workbook ends in 2013. Later points are Interior Ministry turnout figures as quoted by Al Jazeera. The sources disagree for 2013: the workbook gives 76.25, IFES ElectionGuide 72.71. [33]
About this data
Full published range: 1980-01–2024-06. Every plotted line runs the whole of it – 1980 to 2013 are the "Iran (total)" row of the Iran Data Portal workbook, which gives years only; points are placed at each election's month. 2017 to 2024 are Interior Ministry figures as reported by Al Jazeera, because the workbook stops in 2013. Two elections were held in 1981. Runoffs (2005, 2024) are not plotted: 59.76 in the 2005 runoff (Data Portal) and 49.8 percent in the 2024 runoff (Al Jazeera).
Candidates registered and allowed
How many people registered for each presidential election and how many the Ministry of Interior and Guardian Council allowed to run, with the share allowed.
Candidates, by election month
How many people registered for each presidential election and how many the Ministry of Interior and Guardian Council allowed to run, with the share allowed. Read as candidates registered and allowed: Candidates. Dashed segments cross 1 definitional break in the source, explained in Method Changes below this graph. Use the Table switch to see every value.
- Registered
- Allowed to run
Vertical dashed lines mark measurement changes. See method changes.
Source: Iran Data Portal, Syracuse University [34]
Method Changes
2021-06: Source changes to news reports
The Iran Data Portal infographic ends in 2017; later counts are from news reports of the Guardian Council's lists. [34]
About this data
Full published range: 1980-01–2024-06. Every plotted line runs the whole of it – 1980 to 2017 are from the Iran Data Portal infographic, an image: the registered counts are printed numbers and the allowed counts are icons, one per candidate, counted by hand. 2021 is from Al Jazeera and 2024 from Iran International. For 2024 the source says only "more than 80" registered, so 80 is plotted and the share (6 ÷ 80 = 7.5%) is an upper bound. Shares are calculated here as allowed ÷ registered, to one decimal place.
Share of registrants allowed to run
Calculated as allowed ÷ registered. The 2024 value is an upper bound because more than 80 registered.
Executions recorded by IHRNGO
Executions IHRNGO confirmed from at least two sources, each year since its first annual report. These are minimums. Presidents' terms and the June 2025 war are marked under the chart.
Executions (minimum), by calendar year
Executions IHRNGO confirmed from at least two sources, each year since its first annual report. These are minimums. Presidents' terms and the June 2025 war are marked under the chart. Read as executions recorded by IHRNGO: Executions (minimum). 6 dated events are numbered on a strip under the graph and listed below it. Use the Table switch to see every value.
- IHRNGO
Events marked above
Rouhani takes office
Drug-law amendment
The 2017 amendment to the Anti-Narcotics Law narrowed the death penalty for drug offences; IHRNGO says it has been "reversed in practice" since 2021.
Raisi takes office
Woman, Life, Freedom protests
Source: Freedom House [7]
Pezeshkian takes office
Twelve-day war with Israel
Source: Iran Human Rights (IHRNGO) and ECPM [35]
Observations 4
Executions in 2025 were the most since 1989
Executions rose fastest under Pezeshkian
A fall after 2015 followed a drug-law change that has since been undone
Executions fell sharply from 2016 to 2020 (chart). IHRNGO links the decline to the 2017 drug-law amendment, which narrowed the death penalty for drug offences. 35
It says the amendment "has been reversed in practice" since 2021: drug executions averaged 26 a year in 2018–2020 and reached at least 795 in 2025. 35
Executions surged after the June 2025 war
IHRNGO says "a new surge in executions began in the months after the 12-day war" and that 60% of 2025's executions came in the second half of the year. 35
It finds executions "tend to increase when authorities fear social unrest and when the attention of the international community is focused on other geopolitical issues". 35 The UN mission called October 2025's total "the highest monthly total recorded in at least 25 years". 4
About this data
Full published range: 2008–2025. Every plotted line runs the whole of it – IHRNGO's whole published series, from the bar labels of its chart "Execution trends in the last 18 years (2008-2025)", which sum to its stated total of 11,196. The 2026 report is not yet published.
Executions documented by HRANA
Executions documented by HRANA's Statistics Center in each reporting year, which runs from about 10 October to 8 October. Each point is placed at the October in which the year ends.
Executions (minimum), by reporting year ending in October
Executions documented by HRANA's Statistics Center in each reporting year, which runs from about 10 October to 8 October. Each point is placed at the October in which the year ends. Read as executions documented by HRANA: Executions (minimum). 2 dated events are numbered on a strip under the graph and listed below it. Use the Table switch to see every value.
- HRANA
Events marked above
Twelve-day war with Israel
US and Israeli strikes begin (28 Feb)
Source: HRANA (Human Rights Activists in Iran Statistics Center) [36]
Observations 1
A third counter shows the same rise
HRANA counts from October to October. Its latest year, to October 2026, was its highest in ten reporting years (chart). 36
Like IHRNGO, it shows a low around 2018–19 and a rise every year since.
About this data
Full published range: 2017-10–2026-10. Every plotted line runs the whole of it – HRANA's ten published reporting periods. HRANA says its 2024–25 figure was "updated based on supplementary data and may differ from those published in last year's report".
All executions
Executions HRANA documented in each month of its latest reporting year, and the subset on political and security-related charges. October 2025 covers only the last 22 days and October 2026 the first seven.
Executions per month, by month
Executions HRANA documented in each month of its latest reporting year, and the subset on political and security-related charges. October 2025 covers only the last 22 days and October 2026 the first seven. Read as all executions: Executions per month. 5 dated events are numbered on a strip under the graph and listed below it. Use the Table switch to see every value.
- All executions
Events marked above
Nationwide protests and crackdown
HRANA's 50-day record runs from 28 December 2025.
US and Israeli strikes begin (28 Feb)
Ceasefire (8 Apr)
Memorandum signed (17 Jun)
US blockade resumes (14 Jul)
Source: HRANA (Human Rights Activists in Iran Statistics Center) [37]
Observations 1
Total executions fell sharply in the first months of the war
HRANA recorded hundreds of executions a month from November 2025 to February 2026, then its lowest full month in March 2026, when the strikes began (chart). 37
The monthly total recovered after the ceasefire but stayed well below its pre-war level through September. HRANA does not say why it fell.
Political and security-related executions
Executions per month, by month
Executions HRANA documented in each month of its latest reporting year, and the subset on political and security-related charges. October 2025 covers only the last 22 days and October 2026 the first seven. Read as political and security-related executions: Executions per month. 5 dated events are numbered on a strip under the graph and listed below it. Use the Table switch to see every value.
- Political and security-related
Events marked above
Nationwide protests and crackdown
HRANA's 50-day record runs from 28 December 2025.
US and Israeli strikes begin (28 Feb)
Ceasefire (8 Apr)
Memorandum signed (17 Jun)
US blockade resumes (14 Jul)
Source: HRANA (Human Rights Activists in Iran Statistics Center) [37]
Observations 2
Political executions peaked during and just after the war
Executions on political and security charges ran the other way: HRANA's peak months were April and May 2026, with 29 between them (chart). 37
Half the political executions were tied to the January protests
Of the political and security executions HRANA recorded in its latest year, 35 were "in connection with the January 2026 (Dey 1404) protests". 37
About this data
Full published range: 2025-10–2026-10. Every plotted line runs the whole of it – All executions are the bar labels of HRANA's monthly chart, which sum to its total of 2,003. Political and security-related executions are its table "By Month of Execution", which sums to 69.
Real GDP growth
Annual change in real GDP. The 2015 nuclear deal's implementation and the US withdrawal are marked under the chart.
% change on previous year, by calendar year
Annual change in real GDP. The 2015 nuclear deal's implementation and the US withdrawal are marked under the chart. Read as real GDP growth: % change on previous year. 2 dated events are numbered on a strip under the graph and listed below it. Use the Table switch to see every value.
- GDP growth
Events marked above
Nuclear deal implemented
Source: Arms Control Association [31]
US withdraws from the deal
Source: Arms Control Association [32]
Source: World Bank [38]
Observations 1
The economy grew in the deal's first year and shrank after the US left
Growth was strongest in 2016, the year the nuclear deal took effect, and turned negative in 2018 and 2019 after the US withdrew (chart). 38 Inflation was at its lowest in decades in 2016 and 2017 and then climbed (next chart). 39
The timing fits sanctions relief and their return, but these series do not separate sanctions from oil prices or other causes.
About this data
Full published range: 1961–2025. Every plotted line runs the whole of it – The World Bank's whole series for Iran (World Development Indicators, updated 8 October 2026). Values are rounded here to one decimal place from the API's unrounded figures.
Consumer price inflation
Annual change in consumer prices. The 2015 nuclear deal's implementation and the US withdrawal are marked under the chart.
% change on previous year, by calendar year
Annual change in consumer prices. The 2015 nuclear deal's implementation and the US withdrawal are marked under the chart. Read as consumer price inflation: % change on previous year. 2 dated events are numbered on a strip under the graph and listed below it. Use the Table switch to see every value.
- Inflation
Events marked above
Nuclear deal implemented
Source: Arms Control Association [31]
US withdraws from the deal
Source: Arms Control Association [32]
Source: World Bank [39]
About this data
Full published range: 1960–2025. Every plotted line runs the whole of it – The World Bank's whole series for Iran (World Development Indicators, updated 8 October 2026). Values are rounded here to one decimal place from the API's unrounded figures.
Turnout in parliamentary (Majlis) elections, Iran, 2016, 2020 and 2024
Votes cast as a share of eligible voters, by the Interior Ministry's figures as reported by Al Jazeera.
% of eligible voters
- 201662%
- 202042%
- 202441%
Source: Al Jazeera [24]
Observations 1
Parliamentary turnout also hit a record low in 2024
The March 2024 parliamentary election drew 41 percent, "the lowest participation since Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution", just below 2020's pandemic-year 42 percent. 24
About this data
Only three elections are shown because the full parliamentary series (IPU Parline) could not be fetched; see Data still needed. The 2016 figure is "about 62 percent".
Deaths in the protests of 28 December 2025 – 15 February 2026, by HRANA's category, as of 23 February 2026
All deaths HRANA had confirmed in the 50-day record, split into its categories. A further 11,744 cases were under review and are not included.
Deaths confirmed by HRANA
- Protesters6,488 · 92.6%
- Children (counted separately)236 · 3.4%
- Other civilians76 · 1.1%
- Military and government forces207 · 3%
Source: HRANA (Human Rights Activists News Agency) [1]; UN Human Rights Council, Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on Iran [4]
Observations 1
HRANA confirmed 7,007 deaths in the January 2026 crackdown, most of them protesters
HRANA's 7,007 counts every confirmed death in its 50-day record, protesters and others (chart). 1
It is a floor: 11,744 more cases were still under review when it was published. 1
The government counted 3,117 dead by late January, including people it called "rioters". 4
The UN mission found the crackdown amounted to "crimes against humanity of murder, imprisonment, torture". 4
About this data
HRANA counts children separately from protesters. The government's own count, 3,117 by 21 January, has no published split beyond 690 "rioters" (UN mission). The UN mission gives no count of its own.
Crackdown deaths, by counter and method
Each count comes from a different counter using a different method, so they cannot be read as one series.
| Crackdown | Counter | Count | Method | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 2009 | No primary count found | — | — | — |
| November 2019 | Amnesty International | 304 deaths | Named cases, "details released" | 20 May 2020 [6] |
| 2022–23 (Woman, Life, Freedom) | UN fact-finding mission | At least 551 protesters | Confirmed minimum | Early 2024 [7] |
| Dec 2025 – Feb 2026 | Government (Martyrs Foundation) | 3,117 | Official total | 21 Jan 2026 [2] |
| Dec 2025 – Feb 2026 | HRANA | 4,519 (9,049 under review) | Confirmed minimum | 21 Jan 2026 [2] |
| Dec 2025 – Feb 2026 | HRANA | 6,126 (17,091 under review) | Confirmed minimum | 27 Jan 2026 [3] |
| Dec 2025 – Feb 2026 | HRANA | 7,007 (11,744 under review) | Confirmed minimum | 23 Feb 2026 [1] |
| Dec 2025 – Feb 2026 | Published names | HRANA 4,555; government 3,038 | Named individuals | 26 Feb 2026 [5] |
Sources: HRANA (Human Rights Activists News Agency) [1]; Al Jazeera [2]; Al-Monitor (AFP) [3]; NIAC Insights (National Iranian American Council) [5]; Amnesty International [6]; Freedom House [7]
Observations 3
Each of the last three protest waves was put down with lethal force
There is no verified count for 2009
No primary source for deaths in the 2009 post-election crackdown was found, so it is left blank rather than filled from secondary reports. See Data still needed.
Arrests after crackdowns and outside attacks
Arrests counted after the June 2025 war and during the January 2026 crackdown, by counter.
| Period | Counter | Arrests | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 June – early Sept 2025, after the twelve-day war | Amnesty and Human Rights Watch | Over 20,000 | 3 Sep 2025 [10] |
| Same period | Iranian police (spokesperson) | About 21,000 | 12 Aug 2025 [10] |
| January 2026 protests | HRANA | At least 41,880 | 27 Jan 2026 [3] |
| January 2026 protests | Unnamed NGO, cited by the UN mission | Over 50,000 | Mid-Feb 2026 [4] |
| 28 Dec 2025 – 15 Feb 2026 | HRANA | 53,777 | 23 Feb 2026 [1] |
Sources: HRANA (Human Rights Activists News Agency) [1]; Al-Monitor (AFP) [3]; UN Human Rights Council, Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on Iran [4]; Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch [10]
Observations 2
Repression widened after the June 2025 war
In the three months after the June 2025 war, Amnesty and Human Rights Watch counted over 20,000 arrests, including "dissidents, human rights defenders, journalists" and foreign nationals; the police's own figure was about 21,000. 10 At least nine men were executed on political or espionage charges. 10
The January 2026 crackdown brought more than 50,000 arrests
HRANA counted 53,777 arrests during the crackdown, including hundreds of children and school students. 1
Recorded executions by country, 2025 (Amnesty International)
Executions Amnesty recorded in each of the 17 countries known to have executed people in 2025. These are minimums.
Executions recorded
- Iran2,159
- Saudi Arabia356
- Yemen51
- USA47
- Egypt23
- Kuwait17
- Singapore17
- Somalia17
- Afghanistan6
- United Arab Emirates3
- Japan1
- South Sudan1
- Taiwan1
Source: Amnesty International [25]
Observations 2
Iran carried out most of the world's recorded executions in 2025
Amnesty recorded at least 2,159 executions in Iran, 80% of all it recorded worldwide (chart). 25 China is not included: Amnesty believes it executed thousands but cannot count them.
About this data
From the report's list "Executions recorded globally in 2025". Amnesty gives no figure ("+") for China, Iraq, North Korea and Viet Nam, so they are not charted. It believes China executed thousands. Iran, Saudi Arabia, Somalia and Yemen are marked "+" after their figure, meaning at least that many.
Recorded executions per million residents, 2025
Amnesty's recorded executions in 2025 divided by each country's 2025 population (World Bank).
Executions per million residents
- Iran23.36
- Saudi Arabia9.63
- Kuwait3.49
- Singapore2.78
- Yemen1.22
- Somalia0.86
- United Arab Emirates0.26
- Egypt0.19
- USA0.14
- Afghanistan0.14
- South Sudan0.08
- Japan0.01
Source: Amnesty International [25]; World Bank [27]
About this data
Calculated here: executions (Amnesty) ÷ population (World Bank SP.POP.TOTL, 2025) × one million, to two decimal places. For example, Iran 2,159 ÷ 92,417,681 × one million = 23.36. Taiwan is omitted because the World Bank publishes no population for it; countries without an Amnesty figure are omitted as in the chart above.
Executions in Iran by counter, 2023–2025
IHRNGO and Amnesty International each publish a minimum count for Iran by calendar year. They are separate counts and differ, most of all for 2025.
Executions (minimum)
- 2023 — IHRNGO834
- 2023 — Amnesty853
- 2024 — IHRNGO975
- 2024 — Amnesty972
- 2025 — IHRNGO1,639
- 2025 — Amnesty2,159
Source: Iran Human Rights (IHRNGO) and ECPM [35]; Amnesty International [25]; Amnesty International [26]
About this data
Only the years for which both counts were read are shown. Amnesty's series runs from 1981 but its earlier Iran figures were not fetched for this report. HRANA's count uses October years and is charted separately above.
Average executions per month under each president, 2005–2025 (IHRNGO)
IHRNGO's average monthly executions for each presidency, from Ahmadinejad (2005–2013) to Pezeshkian's first 17 months (July 2024 – December 2025).
Executions per month
- Ahmadinejad (8 years)35
- Rouhani (8 years)44
- Raisi (33 months)51
- Pezeshkian (17 months)135
Source: Iran Human Rights (IHRNGO) and ECPM [35]
Observations 1
The execution rate rose under every recent president
By IHRNGO's count, the average monthly rate rose from Ahmadinejad to Rouhani to Raisi, then more than doubled under Pezeshkian (chart). 35
About this data
From IHRNGO's chart "Average monthly executions per president". IHRNGO's totals per term are 3,337 (Ahmadinejad), 4,249 (Rouhani), 1,714 (Raisi, 33 months) and 2,292 (Pezeshkian, 17 months).
Freedom in the World scores, 195 countries, 2026 edition (covering 2025)
Freedom House's aggregate score out of 100 for every country it rates, lowest first. Iran and Saudi Arabia are highlighted.
Score out of 100
- South Sudan0
- Sudan1
- Turkmenistan1
- Eritrea3
- North Korea3
- Myanmar4
- Central African Republic5
- Equatorial Guinea5
- Tajikistan5
- Azerbaijan6
- Belarus7
- Afghanistan8
- Somalia8
- China9
- Cuba9
- Saudi Arabia9
- Iran10
- Libya10
- Syria10
- Yemen10
- Bahrain12
- Russia12
- Uzbekistan12
- Burundi13
- Laos13
- Venezuela13
- Nicaragua14
- Cameroon15
- Chad15
- Eswatini17
- Republic of the Congo17
- Democratic Republic of the Congo18
- Egypt18
- Ethiopia18
- United Arab Emirates18
- Burkina Faso20
- Vietnam20
- Mali21
- Rwanda21
- Cambodia22
- Haiti22
- Kazakhstan23
- Djibouti24
- Oman24
- Gabon25
- Kyrgyzstan25
- Qatar25
- Zimbabwe25
- Brunei27
- Niger27
- Angola28
- Guinea28
- Tanzania28
- Kuwait30
- Algeria31
- Iraq31
- Pakistan32
- Turkey32
- Guinea-Bissau33
- Thailand33
- Uganda33
- Jordan34
- Morocco37
- Togo37
- Mauritania38
- Comoros41
- Lebanon41
- Maldives41
- El Salvador42
- Mozambique42
- Tunisia42
- Bangladesh44
- Nigeria44
- Côte d'Ivoire46
- Honduras47
- Guatemala48
- Singapore48
- Kenya49
- Madagascar50
- Georgia51
- The Gambia51
- Ukraine51
- Malaysia53
- Serbia53
- Zambia53
- Armenia54
- Bosnia and Herzegovina54
- Indonesia56
- Mexico58
- Philippines58
- Nepal59
- Moldova60
- Benin61
- Kosovo61
- Papua New Guinea61
- Sierra Leone61
- India62
- Paraguay63
- Sri Lanka63
- Ecuador64
- Hungary65
- Liberia65
- Peru66
- Dominican Republic67
- Lesotho67
- North Macedonia67
- Malawi68
- Montenegro68
- Albania69
- Bhutan69
- Bolivia69
- Colombia69
- Senegal70
- Fiji72
- Brazil73
- Israel73
- Namibia73
- Timor-Leste73
- Bulgaria74
- Guyana74
- Solomon Islands74
- Botswana75
- Nauru75
- Tonga79
- Ghana80
- Jamaica81
- Seychelles81
- South Africa81
- Suriname81
- United States81
- Croatia82
- Monaco82
- Panama82
- Poland82
- Vanuatu82
- Antigua and Barbuda83
- Romania83
- South Korea83
- Trinidad and Tobago83
- Mongolia84
- Samoa84
- São Tomé and Príncipe84
- Argentina85
- Greece85
- Belize87
- Italy87
- Mauritius87
- Malta88
- Slovakia88
- France89
- Grenada89
- Kiribati89
- Latvia89
- St. Kitts and Nevis89
- Cyprus90
- Liechtenstein90
- Lithuania90
- St. Vincent and the Grenadines90
- The Bahamas90
- Costa Rica91
- Spain91
- St. Lucia91
- Cabo Verde92
- Dominica92
- Micronesia92
- Palau92
- United Kingdom92
- Andorra93
- Marshall Islands93
- Taiwan93
- Tuvalu93
- Australia94
- Austria94
- Barbados94
- Belgium95
- Chile95
- Czechia95
- Germany95
- Iceland95
- Estonia96
- Japan96
- Portugal96
- Switzerland96
- Canada97
- Denmark97
- Luxembourg97
- Netherlands97
- San Marino97
- Slovenia97
- Uruguay97
- Ireland98
- New Zealand99
- Norway99
- Sweden99
- Finland100
Source: Freedom House [9]; Freedom House [7]; Freedom House [8]
Observations 1
Iran is among the least free countries, alongside Saudi Arabia
About this data
Every country in the "Freedom in the World Score" column of Freedom House's Countries and Territories table. The 12 rated territories (marked with an asterisk there, such as Tibet and Gaza) are left out. Iran scored 11 in the previous edition. Ties are listed alphabetically.
Preferred form of political system, GAMAAN online survey, June 2026
Answers to "Which form of political system do you prefer?" among respondents inside Iran, weighted to literate residents aged 15 and over (fieldwork 20–27 June 2026).
% of respondents
- Monarchy, non-federal25.4% · 25.4%
- Monarchy, federal8.5% · 8.5%
- Republic, non-federal16.6% · 16.6%
- Republic, federal10.9% · 10.9%
- Islamic Republic13.4% · 13.4%
- The form of the alternative doesn't matter6.1% · 6.1%
- Lack the knowledge to choose19.1% · 19.1%
Source: GAMAAN (Group for Analyzing and Measuring Attitudes in Iran) [12]
Observations 1
Few respondents prefer the Islamic Republic
In GAMAAN's June 2026 online sample, about 13% chose the Islamic Republic, down about 7 points on the previous year (chart). 12 Monarchy and republic each drew more, and about a quarter had no clear alternative.
About this data
From Figure 17 of the report. The sample was reached online through circumvention tools, mostly Psiphon; GAMAAN gives a credibility interval of ±3 points. The previous wave put the Islamic Republic about 7 points higher.
Views of the war and the regime, GAMAAN online survey, June 2026
Share of respondents inside Iran agreeing with each statement (fieldwork 20–27 June 2026). Each bar is a separate question.
% of respondents
- Called the US–Israeli action "military aggression against Iran"42%
- Called it "humanitarian intervention"40%
- Supported foreign military intervention before and after the war38%
- Opposed foreign military intervention before and after the war27%
- Felt satisfaction at the weakening of the Islamic Republic during the war60%
- Opposed Iran building nuclear weapons59%
- Said the US–Iran agreement did not serve Iranians68%
- Rated the regime's response to the January protests positively14%
Source: GAMAAN (Group for Analyzing and Measuring Attitudes in Iran) [11]
Observations 2
Respondents split on whether the strikes were aggression
42% in GAMAAN's sample called the US–Israeli action "military aggression against Iran", while about 40% called it "humanitarian intervention" (chart). 11 Most opposed Iran building nuclear weapons.
Most were glad to see the regime weakened
About 60% "felt satisfaction at the weakening of the Islamic Republic during the war", and only about 14% approved of its response to the January protests. 11
About this data
GAMAAN reports most of these as "about" a percentage. The sample was reached online through circumvention tools; see About this data.
Openings and reversals, 2000–2026
Dated moves toward and away from openness in Iran, as the sources report them.
Filled marker: major event Hollow: minor
Showing 9 of 9 events
2000
· Reversal
Sixteen reformist publications closed in one week under President Khatami
2004
· Reversal
3,600 parliamentary candidates rejected, including 83 sitting members; about a thousand reinstated
2019
· Reversal
304 protesters killed under President Rouhani
Source: Amnesty International [6]
2024
· Opening
Pezeshkian, the field's one moderate, elected
Source: Al Jazeera [22]
· Opening
Harsher hijab law shelved by the Supreme National Security Council
Source: Iran International [13]
2025
· Opening
Speaker told in writing the hijab law "should not be enacted for the time being"
Source: Rudaw [14]
· Reversal
Organisers of a marathon where women ran unveiled arrested
Source: Freedom House [7]
– · Reversal · major event
Protest crackdown: 7,007 deaths by HRANA's count
2026
· Succession
Mojtaba Khamenei, the late Leader's son, named Leader
Source: Iran International [15]
Sources: HRANA (Human Rights Activists News Agency) [1]; Amnesty International [6]; Freedom House [7]; Iran International [13]; Rudaw [14]; Iran International [15]; IFES ElectionGuide [16]; Committee to Protect Journalists [17]; The Washington Institute for Near East Policy [18]; Al Jazeera [22]
Observations 3
The harsher hijab law was shelved, with the Leader's assent
In December 2024 the Supreme National Security Council put the new hijab law "on hold"; its decisions "require the Supreme Leader's signature". 13 In May 2025 the Speaker said he had been told in writing not to enact it. 14
What was halted is the new law's enactment. The existing hijab rules stayed, and Freedom House records arrests in December 2025 over unveiled women at a marathon. 7
Earlier openings were reversed while reformists held the presidency
The new Leader is the old Leader's son
Subtleties
Moderation and repression ran side by side
The 2024 election and the shelved hijab law are the clearest signs of moderation in these sources. In the same period executions rose fastest and the January 2026 crackdown was the deadliest here. A reader who takes only one set of facts gets a one-sided picture.
The war's first months cut both ways
Total executions dropped when the bombing began, while political executions and arrests rose. "The war weakened repression" and "the war hardened it" each use one half of the same HRANA data.
About this data
What this measures. Turnout, candidate vetting, executions, protest deaths, arrests, expert freedom scores and one online survey. Every count of killing or execution is a confirmed minimum by a named counter: IHRNGO, HRANA and Amnesty each use their own method and period, so each has its own chart.
What it does not measure. No source measures how hijab rules are enforced on the street, or how united the regime's security forces are. Executions and deaths in the war itself are in the war's human and financial costs.
How confident to be. Iran does not let independent monitors work, and most executions are unannounced: IHRNGO says under 7% were officially announced in 2025. True numbers are likely higher than every count here.
The survey. GAMAAN reached its sample online, almost all through the Psiphon circumvention tool, and weighted it to literate residents aged 15 and over. Its effective sample size after weighting is about 6,211. 12 People who use such tools may differ from those who do not; no offline survey was found to check this.
How it compares. Amnesty's execution counts and Freedom House's scores cover every country they rate, and both charts show the full set. Turnout and vetting have no comparable cross-country measure here.
Dates. As of late October 2026. Execution counts run to 8 October 2026 (HRANA) and December 2025 (IHRNGO, Amnesty); crackdown counts stop on 23 February 2026; the survey was fielded 20–27 June 2026.
Oil, Shipping and Prices, 1974–2026
Oil and US petrol prices jumped after the war began, though real crude stayed below earlier peaks, and tracked traffic through Hormuz has stayed far below normal amid attacks on shipping and a US blockade. [1][3][10][13][23][25]
Brent, US$ a barrel
Monthly average of the daily Brent spot price, in US dollars a barrel, not adjusted for inflation, over the whole period EIA publishes. Daily values to 27 October 2026 are given in the observations.
US$ a barrel (nominal), by month
Monthly average of the daily Brent spot price, in US dollars a barrel, not adjusted for inflation, over the whole period EIA publishes. Daily values to 27 October 2026 are given in the observations. Read as brent, US$ a barrel: US$ a barrel (nominal). 6 dated events are numbered on a strip under the graph and listed below it. Use the Table switch to see every value.
- Brent spot, monthly average
Events marked above
US and Israeli strikes on Iran begin
Ceasefire
US blockade of Iranian ports begins
US–Iran memorandum signed
US blockade resumes
US strikes on Iran, including oil tankers
Source: US Energy Information Administration [21]
Observations 2
Brent nearly doubled by the April peak and rose again in the autumn
About this data
Full published range: 1987-05–2026-09. Every plotted line runs the whole of it – EIA's monthly Brent series starts in May 1987, when its daily series starts (20 May 1987), and the latest complete month is September 2026 (release of 28 October 2026). The monthly series is used because the daily one has more than 9,100 values. October 2026 daily values are in source 1.
Brent, US$ a barrel
Every value is copied from EIA's monthly table (source above), in US dollars a barrel; the chart's "count" unit is used because there is no dollar unit.
WTI, US$ a barrel
Monthly average of the daily West Texas Intermediate spot price at Cushing, Oklahoma, in US dollars a barrel, not adjusted for inflation, over the whole period EIA publishes.
US$ a barrel (nominal), by month
Monthly average of the daily West Texas Intermediate spot price at Cushing, Oklahoma, in US dollars a barrel, not adjusted for inflation, over the whole period EIA publishes. Read as WTI, US$ a barrel: US$ a barrel (nominal). 6 dated events are numbered on a strip under the graph and listed below it. Use the Table switch to see every value.
- WTI spot, monthly average
Events marked above
US and Israeli strikes on Iran begin
Ceasefire
US blockade of Iranian ports begins
US–Iran memorandum signed
US blockade resumes
US strikes on Iran, including oil tankers
Source: US Energy Information Administration [22]
Observations 1
US crude rose less than Brent
WTI, the US benchmark, went from $66.96 before the strikes to $114.58 at its April peak. 2 In proportion, its rise was smaller than Brent's.
About this data
Full published range: 1986-01–2026-09. Every plotted line runs the whole of it – EIA's WTI series starts in January 1986, a year before Brent's, so the two are separate charts. Latest complete month September 2026.
WTI, US$ a barrel
Every value is copied from EIA's monthly table (source above), in US dollars a barrel.
Imported crude, October 2026 US$ a barrel
The average price US refiners paid for imported crude oil each month, adjusted to October 2026 dollars with the consumer price index, over the whole historical period EIA publishes.
US$ a barrel (Oct 2026 dollars), by month
The average price US refiners paid for imported crude oil each month, adjusted to October 2026 dollars with the consumer price index, over the whole historical period EIA publishes. Read as imported crude, October 2026 US$ a barrel: US$ a barrel (Oct 2026 dollars). 1 dated event is numbered on a strip under the graph and listed below it. Use the Table switch to see every value.
- Real imported crude price
Events marked above
US and Israeli strikes on Iran begin
Source: US Energy Information Administration [23]
Observations 1
Adjusted for inflation, crude stayed below the 1981, 2008 and 2022 peaks
In October 2026 dollars, the refiner price of imported crude peaked at $98.85 in May 2026 (chart). 23
That is well below January 1981, July 2008 and June 2022 in the same series, and above the 1974 and 1990 levels. 23 EIA's estimates for September and October 2026 are close to May's, so the autumn may set a slightly higher 2026 peak.
About this data
Full published range: 1974-01–2026-08. Every plotted line runs the whole of it – EIA's real-price file starts in January 1974. Its values from September 2026 onward are estimates and forecasts ("Forecast / estimated values shown in blue"), so they are left out: the series stops at the last historical month, August 2026. This is the refiner imported crude cost, not Brent.
Imported crude, October 2026 US$ a barrel
Every value is column "Real" of the sheet, rounded to the cent; rows whose "Forecast Values" flag is 1 (September 2026 onward) are excluded. Peaks: January 1981 $148.55, July 2008 $194.52, June 2022 $126.68, May 2026 $98.85. Left out: the September 2026 estimate ($97.89) and October forecast ($100.00).
Regular gasoline, US$ a gallon
Average US retail price of regular gasoline, all formulations, in dollars a gallon including taxes, not adjusted for inflation. Weekly values are given in the observations.
US$ a gallon (nominal), by month
Average US retail price of regular gasoline, all formulations, in dollars a gallon including taxes, not adjusted for inflation. Weekly values are given in the observations. Read as regular gasoline, US$ a gallon: US$ a gallon (nominal). 7 dated events are numbered on a strip under the graph and listed below it. Use the Table switch to see every value.
- US regular gasoline, monthly average
Events marked above
US and Israeli strikes on Iran begin
Ceasefire
US blockade of Iranian ports begins
US–Iran memorandum signed
US blockade resumes
US strikes on Iran, including oil tankers
President pledges no strikes before the midterms
Source: Associated Press (via WCAX) [20]
About this data
Full published range: 1990-09–2026-10. Every plotted line runs the whole of it – EIA's monthly series starts in September 1990 (its weekly series on 20 August 1990); EIA marks December 1990 and January 1991 "NA", so those months are blank. October 2026 is EIA's published average of the October weeks to 26 October.
Regular gasoline, US$ a gallon
Every value is copied from EIA's monthly table (source above), in dollars a gallon.
US consumer prices, change over the 12 months to September 2026
Percentage change in the consumer price index over the year to September 2026, for all items, for all items less food and energy, for energy and for gasoline (BLS).
% change on a year earlier
- All items3.7%
- All items less food and energy2.6%
- Energy20.4%
- Gasoline34.2%
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics [4]
Observations 2
Gasoline prices drove most of the rise in inflation
BLS reports gasoline up 34.2 percent over the year to September, accounting for most of the energy index's rise. 4 Prices excluding food and energy rose far less (chart).
CBO attributes about half a point of extra inflation to the war
About this data
September 2026 is the latest month published; October CPI is due in mid-November. BLS does not say what caused the rise.
Ships a day, monthly average
Average number of ships a day recorded passing through the strait by satellite ship tracking (AIS), all vessel types and tankers, as published by IMF PortWatch. October 2026 runs to 25 October.
Ships a day, by month
Average number of ships a day recorded passing through the strait by satellite ship tracking (AIS), all vessel types and tankers, as published by IMF PortWatch. October 2026 runs to 25 October. Read as ships a day, monthly average: Ships a day. Dashed segments cross 1 definitional break in the source, explained in Method Changes below this graph. 7 dated events are numbered on a strip under the graph and listed below it. Use the Table switch to see every value.
- Tankers
Events marked above
US and Israeli strikes on Iran begin
Ceasefire
US blockade of Iranian ports begins
US–Iran memorandum signed
US blockade resumes
US strikes on Iran, including oil tankers
President pledges no strikes before the midterms
Source: Associated Press (via WCAX) [20]
Vertical dashed lines mark measurement changes. See method changes.
Source: IMF PortWatch [25]
Observations 3
Tracked traffic through Hormuz fell to almost nothing within days
The June reopening was brief
Other sources report much more traffic than the tracking counts
CENTCOM says more than 3,000 vessels passed through with US support in six months, and that Gulf partners exported more than 1.5 billion barrels since summer. 12 Kpler, via the Washington Post, reports Gulf exports approaching prewar daily averages. 13
EIA warns that ship-tracking signals in the strait have been "especially unreliable" since February. 26 Recorded transits are therefore a floor, and the true level is unsettled.
Method Changes
2026-03: Tracking signals unreliable
EIA: "Since the end of February 2026, AIS signal data for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz have become especially unreliable." PortWatch counts are built from the same AIS signals. [25]
About this data
Full published range: 2019-01–2026-10. Every plotted line runs the whole of it – PortWatch publishes daily counts from 1 January 2019; the latest value queried on 29 October 2026 is for 25 October. Each point is our average of PortWatch's daily "n_total" (all ships) or "n_tanker" values for the month, not a figure PortWatch publishes. Since late February 2026, ship tracking in the strait has been unreliable (see the EIA flows chart), so these counts are likely to miss ships sailing with transponders off.
Ships a day, monthly average
Our monthly means of PortWatch daily counts (all days of each month that PortWatch publishes).
Oil, million barrels a day
EIA's estimates of crude oil, condensate and petroleum products, and of liquefied natural gas, moved through the strait each quarter, based on Vortexa tanker tracking.
Million barrels a day, by quarter
EIA's estimates of crude oil, condensate and petroleum products, and of liquefied natural gas, moved through the strait each quarter, based on Vortexa tanker tracking. Read as oil, million barrels a day: Million barrels a day. 1 dated event is numbered on a strip under the graph and listed below it. Use the Table switch to see every value.
- Total oil flows
Events marked above
US and Israeli strikes on Iran begin
Source: US Energy Information Administration [26]
Observations 1
Oil through the strait fell by more than three-quarters by the second quarter
LNG, billion cubic feet a day
Billion cubic feet a day, by quarter
EIA's estimates of crude oil, condensate and petroleum products, and of liquefied natural gas, moved through the strait each quarter, based on Vortexa tanker tracking. Read as LNG, billion cubic feet a day: Billion cubic feet a day. 1 dated event is numbered on a strip under the graph and listed below it. Use the Table switch to see every value.
- LNG flows
Events marked above
US and Israeli strikes on Iran begin
About this data
Full published range: 2025-02–2026-05. Every plotted line runs the whole of it – EIA's table covers 1Q25 to 2Q26 only (release of 12 August 2026; the October STEO did not update it). Each quarter is plotted at its middle month (February for 1Q, and so on). EIA says 2026 tracking data "are being revised frequently".
Traffic through every PortWatch chokepoint in September 2026, as a share of its 2025 average
Average ships a day in September 2026 divided by the average for 2025, for each of the 28 chokepoints IMF PortWatch tracks. 100% means traffic as usual.
% of 2025 daily average
- Bering Strait399%
- Mindoro Strait159%
- Magellan Strait153%
- Luzon Strait140%
- Makassar Strait118%
- Tsugaru Strait118%
- Mona Passage109%
- Lombok Strait106%
- Yucatan Channel106%
- Suez Canal105%
- Balabac Strait103%
- Sunda Strait103%
- Korea Strait100%
- Gibraltar Strait98%
- Taiwan Strait97%
- Cape of Good Hope96%
- Dover Strait96%
- Malacca Strait94%
- Windward Passage92%
- Bohai Strait91%
- Ombai Strait90%
- Panama Canal90%
- Torres Strait89%
- Oresund Strait81%
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait79%
- Bosporus Strait55%
- Strait of Hormuz4%
- Kerch Strait0%
Source: IMF PortWatch [25]
Observations 1
Hormuz is the outlier among the world's chokepoints
In September, most of the 28 chokepoints PortWatch tracks were close to their 2025 traffic (chart). 25 Only the Kerch Strait, near zero, ran lower than Hormuz.
About this data
Our arithmetic from PortWatch's daily "n_total" counts: the mean of September 2026's 30 days divided by the mean of 2025's 365 days. The full set of chokepoints is shown, in descending order. Small chokepoints swing widely: the Bering Strait averaged about one ship a day in 2025.
Iran's oil exports, March–May 2026 (Vortexa, via Reuters)
Average barrels a day of Iranian oil exports in each month, from the tanker tracker Vortexa as reported by Reuters on 4 June 2026. The US blockade of Iranian ports began on 13 April.
Million barrels a day
- March 20261.9
- April 2026 (blockade from 13 April)1.34
- May 20260.21
Source: Reuters (via Baird Maritime) [14]
Observations 1
Iran's exports collapsed after the first blockade began
About this data
Million barrels a day. March is Reuters' "nearly 1.9 million"; May is 209,000 barrels a day (0.209 million). Vortexa's data are proprietary, so no longer series could be checked; no figure after May was confirmed at source.
The US blockade in CENTCOM's own figures
Single-party claims from US Central Command, as worded in each release.
| Release | Period | Redirected or turned around | Disabled | Destroyed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 May 2026 (caption) [9] | First blockade, from 13 April | 91 ships | — | — |
| 5 Oct 2026 [10] | Since 14 July | 130 vessels | 3 ships | 13 commercial vessels, "over the past 12 weeks" |
| 10 Oct 2026 [11] | Since 14 July | 135 ships | 4 vessels | 10 tankers linked to the IRGC |
Sources: US Central Command [9]; US Central Command [10]; US Central Command [11]; US Central Command [12]
Observations 3
CENTCOM reports enforcing the blockade by force
US forces are also destroying ships
CENTCOM's early-October releases say US forces destroyed 13 commercial vessels in one, and 10 IRGC-linked tankers in the other. 10 11
The two releases use different categories, and CENTCOM does not explain the difference. The 1 September War Powers letter reported strikes on Iranian state oil tankers. 19
Attacks on shipping continued in October
Officials told Bloomberg of 23 recorded attacks on vessels in or near Hormuz in the first two weeks of October, at least five hitting engine rooms. 13 The report, relayed by ISW/CTP, does not say who carried out each attack.
About this data
A release of 25 October 2026 adds that more than 3,000 vessels transited with US support over the "last six months", and that "over 95%" of ships passed safely.
The 1980s Tanker War
The last Gulf shipping war disrupted far less traffic
The Strauss Center says the 1980s Tanker War "failed to disrupt more than two percent of ships" in the Gulf even at its height, and real oil prices fell through the decade. 15
Tracked Hormuz traffic in 2026 has fallen much further than that (Hormuz chart). 25
About this data
What this measures. Crude oil spot prices (Brent, the world benchmark, and WTI, the US one), the real price US refiners paid for imported crude, US retail petrol, consumer prices, and ships and oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz, as of late October 2026.
Frequency. The price charts use EIA's monthly averages over each full published range, because the daily and weekly series have thousands of points. Daily and weekly values are quoted in the observations.
How confident to be. Prices are measured, not estimated. Hormuz counts and flows rest on ship tracking that EIA calls unreliable since February, and CENTCOM's tallies are claims by one side in the war.
Causes. A price rising after an event does not show the event caused all of it. CBO is the only source here that attributes inflation to the war. 5
Commonly mistaken for. A record in money terms is not a record in real terms: adjusted for inflation, 2026's crude prices were below several earlier peaks. 23 For the war's cost to the US government, see the war's human and financial costs.
Data still needed
- Iranian deaths after 8 April 2026 from any count independent of the government, with a civilian–military splitHRANA's and Hengaw's counts stop at the April ceasefire. Fighting resumed in June and July, and the only later figures are the authorities' unsplit totals and Airwars' incident tallies, so the civilian toll of the war as a whole is unknown.
- Civilian share of deaths in comparable air campaigns, measured by the same kind of incident-based countWithout a comparator, a civilian share of 13.5% (Hengaw) or just under half (HRANA) cannot be judged against other bombing campaigns.
- A Defense Department cost estimate with its as-of date and method after 3 September 2026, and actual monthly obligationsAP's $47.1 bn has no stated as-of date, and CBO says DoD did not answer its questions; the monthly cost going forward ($2–3 bn by CBO) is an estimate, not a record.
- US deaths in the first eight months of the Iraq war (March–October 2003), from the same DCAS tablesTotals compare wars of very different lengths; deaths over the same number of months would compare like with like.
- Interceptor stocks and production rates from the Defense DepartmentCSIS figures are estimates from budget documents; the Pentagon does not publish stocks, so how far depletion limits further fighting cannot be checked.
- The war cost as a share of the defence budgetA cost in billions means little without the budget it comes out of; no source found states it.
Sources
The War's Human and Financial Costs, with Earlier Wars for Scale, 2026
- Day 39 of U.S. and Israeli Attacks on Iran: Extensive Damage to the Rail Network and Roads
HRANA (Human Rights Activists News Agency), 2026-04-07 · supports
“Aggregated data since the beginning of the conflict on February 28, 2026, based on incidents recorded in the incident tab and using minimum values for figures marked "more than": • Civilian fatalities: 1,701 people (including at least 254 children) • Military fatalities: 1,221 people • Unclassified fatalities (civilian/military): 714 people … Delays in medical reporting, difficulties in confirming identities, and restricted access to certain provinces may result in temporary undercounting. … they have not been included in the event-based calculations”
Aggregated data since the beginning of the conflict on February 28, 2026, based on incidents recorded in the incident tab and using minimum values for figures marked "more than": • Civilian fatalities: 1,701 people (including at least 254 children) • Military fatalities: 1,221 people • Unclassified fatalities (civilian/military): 714 people … Delays in medical reporting, difficulties in confirming identities, and restricted access to certain provinces may result in temporary undercounting. … they have not been included in the event-based calculations
- At least 7,650 killed in 40 days of war, including 1,030 civilians — Hengaw’s tenth report
Hengaw Organization for Human Rights, 2026-04-08 · complicates
“According to data collected by Hengaw, at least 7,650 people were killed during the recent war, of whom 1,030 (equivalent to 13.5%) were civilians. … At least 6,620 military personnel were killed, the majority of whom were members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the army. … Hengaw has repeatedly emphasized during the conflict that Iranian military forces abandoned official bases and were stationed in civilian locations, including schools, student dormitories, and mosques within residential areas. … To date, no comprehensive official report on military casualties has been issued by state authorities.”
According to data collected by Hengaw, at least 7,650 people were killed during the recent war, of whom 1,030 (equivalent to 13.5%) were civilians. … At least 6,620 military personnel were killed, the majority of whom were members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the army. … Hengaw has repeatedly emphasized during the conflict that Iranian military forces abandoned official bases and were stationed in civilian locations, including schools, student dormitories, and mosques within residential areas. … To date, no comprehensive official report on military casualties has been issued by state authorities.
- Middle East escalation of conflict — Global external situation report #10 (data as of 21 July)
World Health Organization, 2026-07-22 · supports
“Iran 3 200 000 [Displaced] 33 806 [Injured] 3 375 [Deaths] … All numbers are estimates and may differ from other sources due to data cutoff times. … Since the beginning of the hostilities on 28 February, national authorities reported 3375 deaths and 33 806 injuries in the Islamic Republic of Iran, including 15 injuries following strikes on 7 June. An additional 50 deaths and more than 517 injuries have been reported as occurring between 27 June – 19 July … Cumulative figures since 28 February have yet to be reported.”
Iran 3 200 000 [Displaced] 33 806 [Injured] 3 375 [Deaths] … All numbers are estimates and may differ from other sources due to data cutoff times. … Since the beginning of the hostilities on 28 February, national authorities reported 3375 deaths and 33 806 injuries in the Islamic Republic of Iran, including 15 injuries following strikes on 7 June. An additional 50 deaths and more than 517 injuries have been reported as occurring between 27 June – 19 July … Cumulative figures since 28 February have yet to be reported.
- World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Iran
World Bank, 2026-10-08 · supports
“"indicator":{"id":"SP.POP.TOTL","value":"Population, total"},"country":{"id":"IR","value":"Iran, Islamic Rep."},"countryiso3code":"IRN","date":"2025","value":92417681”
"indicator":{"id":"SP.POP.TOTL","value":"Population, total"},"country":{"id":"IR","value":"Iran, Islamic Rep."},"countryiso3code":"IRN","date":"2025","value":92417681
- Israeli, Iranian and US forces in Iran 2026 (conflict page)
Airwars, 2026-10 · supports
“Over 40 days Airwars tracked 267 civilian harm incidents and has published 71. … In June, U.S. strikes began again after negotiations faltered. Airwars' rapid response team has tracked 34 further incidents of civilian harm, of which 23 have been published.”
Over 40 days Airwars tracked 267 civilian harm incidents and has published 71. … In June, U.S. strikes began again after negotiations faltered. Airwars' rapid response team has tracked 34 further incidents of civilian harm, of which 23 have been published.
- Civilian harm in Iran after one month of war
Airwars, 2026-03-27 · complicates
“At least 1,443 civilians have been killed by U.S. and Israeli forces, including 217 children, according to HRA.”
At least 1,443 civilians have been killed by U.S. and Israeli forces, including 217 children, according to HRA.
- Report of the independent international fact-finding mission on the Islamic Republic of Iran (A/HRC/61/60)
UN Human Rights Council, 2026-03-19 · complicates
“On 3 March, the Iranian Red Crescent Society reported that 787 people had been killed in the Islamic Republic of Iran since the air strikes had begun.”
On 3 March, the Iranian Red Crescent Society reported that 787 people had been killed in the Islamic Republic of Iran since the air strikes had begun.
- Pentagon raises Iran war death toll to 21
Task & Purpose, 2026-10-10 · supports
“Since Feb. 28, 865 service members have been wounded in the war, the majority since July 7. … This summer the Pentagon split deaths and injuries in the war into two separate categories: one for Operation Epic Fury and one listed as 'overseas operations,' covering casualties since July.”
Since Feb. 28, 865 service members have been wounded in the war, the majority since July 7. … This summer the Pentagon split deaths and injuries in the war into two separate categories: one for Operation Epic Fury and one listed as 'overseas operations,' covering casualties since July.
- Pentagon's latest Iran war cost estimate: $43.6 billion
Roll Call, 2026-09-18 · supports
“The Pentagon's latest figure comprises $11.2 billion already obligated for operating expenses ... plus $32.4 billion in unfunded replacement costs for munitions, damaged aircraft and other assets … The new Pentagon estimate of $43.6 billion is current as of Sept. 3, the document said … the CBO said the war cost $38.1 billion through July … The IG, meanwhile, put the figure at $33.4 billion. Its estimate ran through June. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth testified in July that the war would cost $37.5 billion through the end of September. The Pentagon has asked Congress for $67.1 billion in supplemental spending”
The Pentagon's latest figure comprises $11.2 billion already obligated for operating expenses ... plus $32.4 billion in unfunded replacement costs for munitions, damaged aircraft and other assets … The new Pentagon estimate of $43.6 billion is current as of Sept. 3, the document said … the CBO said the war cost $38.1 billion through July … The IG, meanwhile, put the figure at $33.4 billion. Its estimate ran through June. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth testified in July that the war would cost $37.5 billion through the end of September. The Pentagon has asked Congress for $67.1 billion in supplemental spending
- DOD officials say Iran war has cost $25 billion so far during congressional grilling
NPR (via KASU), 2026-04-29 · supports
“Twenty-five billion dollars - that's how much the Pentagon estimates the war with Iran is costing.”
Twenty-five billion dollars - that's how much the Pentagon estimates the war with Iran is costing.
- Costs of the Armed Conflict With Iran (letter, 15 September 2026; archived 1 October 2026)
Congressional Budget Office, 2026-09-15 · supports
“CBO estimates that as of August 1, 2026, the armed conflict with Iran has cost DoD approximately $38 billion. … if the level of violence remained as low as it was in May and June, an additional month of conflict would cost $2 billion; if the intensity of the conflict increased to roughly the level experienced in July, the cost per month would increase to $3 billion. … CBO relied on government databases and public reports because DoD did not respond to CBO's requests for information. … This past June, the Administration requested $87.6 billion in supplemental appropriations, of which $67.1 billion was for DoD to pay for the conflict. … relatively few U.S. forces have been involved compared with the much larger and longer U.S. operations in Iraq and Afghanistan … in the first quarter of 2027, inflation (measured year over year) in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is now estimated to be 0.5 percentage points higher than the agency projected in February 2026, and core PCE inflation is estimated to be 0.3 percentage points higher”
CBO estimates that as of August 1, 2026, the armed conflict with Iran has cost DoD approximately $38 billion. … if the level of violence remained as low as it was in May and June, an additional month of conflict would cost $2 billion; if the intensity of the conflict increased to roughly the level experienced in July, the cost per month would increase to $3 billion. … CBO relied on government databases and public reports because DoD did not respond to CBO's requests for information. … This past June, the Administration requested $87.6 billion in supplemental appropriations, of which $67.1 billion was for DoD to pay for the conflict. … relatively few U.S. forces have been involved compared with the much larger and longer U.S. operations in Iraq and Afghanistan … in the first quarter of 2027, inflation (measured year over year) in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is now estimated to be 0.5 percentage points higher than the agency projected in February 2026, and core PCE inflation is estimated to be 0.3 percentage points higher
- The War May Be Ending: What Did Epic Fury Cost?
Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2026-06-23 · supports
“CSIS estimates war costs to be around $40 billion ($34 billion to $42 billion).”
CSIS estimates war costs to be around $40 billion ($34 billion to $42 billion).
- Epic Fury costs as of the April 8 cease-fire
American Enterprise Institute, 2026-04-10 · supports
“we estimate an incremental cost to date of between $25 and $35 billion.”
we estimate an incremental cost to date of between $25 and $35 billion.
- A Renewed Iran War Would Test Diminished Interceptor Inventories
Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2026-07-27 · supports
“This has required extensive use of interceptors, with Patriot inventories now under 1,000 and THAAD inventories at about 250. Diminished stockpiles may force the United States and its coalition partners to take more risks with interceptions.”
This has required extensive use of interceptors, with Patriot inventories now under 1,000 and THAAD inventories at about 250. Diminished stockpiles may force the United States and its coalition partners to take more risks with interceptions.
- Last Rounds? The Status of Key Munitions at the Iran War Ceasefire
Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2026-04-21 · complicates
“Of the total deliveries, 5 percent was deducted for training, lot testing, and other nonoperational uses. … Up to 400 of the older PAC-2 missiles may also still be in the stockpile but are not included in Figure 9.”
Of the total deliveries, 5 percent was deducted for training, lot testing, and other nonoperational uses. … Up to 400 of the older PAC-2 missiles may also still be in the stockpile but are not included in Figure 9.
- American War and Military Operations Casualties: Lists and Statistics (RL32492)
Congressional Research Service, 2020-07-29 · supports
“Table 12. Operation Iraqi Freedom: Casualty Summary by Casualty Category (as of July 16, 2020) … Total Hostile Deaths 3,481 ... Total Nonhostile Deaths 937 ... Total Deaths 4,418 ... Total Wounded in Action 31,994 … [Operation Enduring Freedom] Total Deaths 2,349 ... Total Wounded In Action 20,149 … [Operation New Dawn] Total Deaths 74”
Table 12. Operation Iraqi Freedom: Casualty Summary by Casualty Category (as of July 16, 2020) … Total Hostile Deaths 3,481 ... Total Nonhostile Deaths 937 ... Total Deaths 4,418 ... Total Wounded in Action 31,994 … [Operation Enduring Freedom] Total Deaths 2,349 ... Total Wounded In Action 20,149 … [Operation New Dawn] Total Deaths 74
- The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11 (RL33110)
Congressional Research Service, 2014-12-08 · supports
“Congress has approved appropriations for the past 13 years of war that total $1.6 trillion ... $686 billion (43%) for Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) for Afghanistan and other counterterror operations received; $815 billion (51%) for Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF)/Operation New Dawn (OND)”
Congress has approved appropriations for the past 13 years of war that total $1.6 trillion ... $686 billion (43%) for Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) for Afghanistan and other counterterror operations received; $815 billion (51%) for Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF)/Operation New Dawn (OND)
- Iraq War's Price Tag
Council on Foreign Relations, 2005-02-02 · supports
“In September 2002, White House economic adviser Lawrence Lindsey told The Wall Street Journal that a U.S. intervention in Iraq could cost between $100 billion and $200 billion... White House Budget Director Mitchell E. Daniels Jr. labeled that figure as 'very, very high' and estimated total war costs at between $50 billion to $60 billion. … Brookings Institution senior fellows Michael O'Hanlon and Lael Brainard estimated in August 2003 that military and reconstruction costs could range from $150 billion to $300 billion. … On the eve of the war in March 2003, an independent task force report from the Council on Foreign Relations estimated that stabilizing Iraq could cost some $20 billion a year for several years”
In September 2002, White House economic adviser Lawrence Lindsey told The Wall Street Journal that a U.S. intervention in Iraq could cost between $100 billion and $200 billion... White House Budget Director Mitchell E. Daniels Jr. labeled that figure as 'very, very high' and estimated total war costs at between $50 billion to $60 billion. … Brookings Institution senior fellows Michael O'Hanlon and Lael Brainard estimated in August 2003 that military and reconstruction costs could range from $150 billion to $300 billion. … On the eve of the war in March 2003, an independent task force report from the Council on Foreign Relations estimated that stabilizing Iraq could cost some $20 billion a year for several years
- Iran Update Special Report, July 13, 2026
Institute for the Study of War and AEI Critical Threats Project, 2026-07-13 · supports
“Iran has continuously made efforts to reconstitute its ballistic missile and drone programs since the ceasefire on April 8. … The United States will resume its blockade of Iranian ports beginning on July 14 at 4:00 PM ET.”
Iran has continuously made efforts to reconstitute its ballistic missile and drone programs since the ceasefire on April 8. … The United States will resume its blockade of Iranian ports beginning on July 14 at 4:00 PM ET.
- War Powers report to Congress (House Document 119-169)
The White House (via GovInfo), 2026-07-10 · supports
“military action commenced on July 7, 2026, against the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran”
military action commenced on July 7, 2026, against the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran
- Trump says US will not resume military strikes on Iran before midterm elections
Associated Press (via WCAX), 2026-10-08 · supports
“But Trump in a social media post on Thursday said the U.S. "will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd."”
But Trump in a social media post on Thursday said the U.S. "will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd."
- US warns allies to prepare for possible Iran strikes, retaliation after elections, AP sources say
Associated Press (via WCAX), 2026-10-29 · supports
“The cost of fighting the Iran war to American taxpayers has grown to $47.1 billion, according to the latest estimate the Pentagon has provided to Congress.”
The cost of fighting the Iran war to American taxpayers has grown to $47.1 billion, according to the latest estimate the Pentagon has provided to Congress.
- Defense Casualty Analysis System: conflict casualty summaries, Operation Epic Fury and Overseas Operations (monthly and by category)
US Department of Defense, Defense Casualty Analysis System, 2026-10-28 · supports
“[Operation Epic Fury, monthly] "month_Year":"FEBRUARY 2026" … "tot_kia":"0" … "tot_acc":"0" … "tot_wia":"36" … "month_Year":"MARCH 2026" … "tot_kia":"7" … "tot_acc":"7" … "tot_total":"14" … "tot_wia":"342" … "month_Year":"APRIL 2026" … "tot_wia":"34" … "month_Year":"JUNE 2026" … "tot_wia":"5" … "month_Year":"JULY 2026" … "tot_kia":"0" … "tot_acc":"1" … "tot_wia":"0" … [Overseas Operations, monthly] "month_Year":"JULY 2026" … "tot_kia":"4" … "tot_acc":"0" … "tot_wia":"350" … "month_Year":"SEPTEMBER 2026" … "tot_acc":"2" … "tot_wia":"94" … "month_Year":"OCTOBER 2026" … "tot_acc":"1" … "tot_wia":"4" … [category totals] Epic Fury "total":"15", "casualty_CATEGORIES":"TOTAL DEATHS" … "airforce":"6","spaceforce":"0","total":"6", "casualty_CATEGORIES":"ACCIDENT" … "total":"8", "casualty_CATEGORIES":"TOTAL NON-HOSTILE DEATHS" … "total":"417", "casualty_CATEGORIES":"WOUNDED IN ACTION (WIA)" … Overseas Operations "total":"7", "casualty_CATEGORIES":"TOTAL DEATHS" … "total":"3", "casualty_CATEGORIES":"TOTAL NON-HOSTILE DEATHS" … "total":"448", "casualty_CATEGORIES":"WOUNDED IN ACTION (WIA)" … "extractionDate":"October 28, 2026"”
[Operation Epic Fury, monthly] "month_Year":"FEBRUARY 2026" … "tot_kia":"0" … "tot_acc":"0" … "tot_wia":"36" … "month_Year":"MARCH 2026" … "tot_kia":"7" … "tot_acc":"7" … "tot_total":"14" … "tot_wia":"342" … "month_Year":"APRIL 2026" … "tot_wia":"34" … "month_Year":"JUNE 2026" … "tot_wia":"5" … "month_Year":"JULY 2026" … "tot_kia":"0" … "tot_acc":"1" … "tot_wia":"0" … [Overseas Operations, monthly] "month_Year":"JULY 2026" … "tot_kia":"4" … "tot_acc":"0" … "tot_wia":"350" … "month_Year":"SEPTEMBER 2026" … "tot_acc":"2" … "tot_wia":"94" … "month_Year":"OCTOBER 2026" … "tot_acc":"1" … "tot_wia":"4" … [category totals] Epic Fury "total":"15", "casualty_CATEGORIES":"TOTAL DEATHS" … "airforce":"6","spaceforce":"0","total":"6", "casualty_CATEGORIES":"ACCIDENT" … "total":"8", "casualty_CATEGORIES":"TOTAL NON-HOSTILE DEATHS" … "total":"417", "casualty_CATEGORIES":"WOUNDED IN ACTION (WIA)" … Overseas Operations "total":"7", "casualty_CATEGORIES":"TOTAL DEATHS" … "total":"3", "casualty_CATEGORIES":"TOTAL NON-HOSTILE DEATHS" … "total":"448", "casualty_CATEGORIES":"WOUNDED IN ACTION (WIA)" … "extractionDate":"October 28, 2026"
Decisions, Law and Diplomacy: Congress, the President, Ceasefires and Negotiations, 2024–2026
- Roll Call 85, H.Con.Res.38, 5 March 2026 (XML)
Office of the Clerk, US House of Representatives, 2026-03-05 · supports
“<legis-num>H CON RES 38</legis-num> ... <vote-question>On Agreeing to the Resolution</vote-question> ... <vote-result>Failed</vote-result> ... <action-date>5-Mar-2026</action-date> ... <vote-desc>Directing the President pursuant to section 5(c) of the War Powers Resolution to remove United States Armed Forces from unauthorized hostilities in the Islamic Republic of Iran</vote-desc> ... <party>Republican</party><yea-total>2</yea-total><nay-total>215</nay-total><present-total>0</present-total><not-voting-total>1</not-voting-total> ... <party>Democratic</party><yea-total>210</yea-total><nay-total>4</nay-total><present-total>0</present-total><not-voting-total>0</not-voting-total> ... <total-stub>Totals</total-stub><yea-total>212</yea-total><nay-total>219</nay-total><present-total>0</present-total><not-voting-total>1</not-voting-total>”
<legis-num>H CON RES 38</legis-num> ... <vote-question>On Agreeing to the Resolution</vote-question> ... <vote-result>Failed</vote-result> ... <action-date>5-Mar-2026</action-date> ... <vote-desc>Directing the President pursuant to section 5(c) of the War Powers Resolution to remove United States Armed Forces from unauthorized hostilities in the Islamic Republic of Iran</vote-desc> ... <party>Republican</party><yea-total>2</yea-total><nay-total>215</nay-total><present-total>0</present-total><not-voting-total>1</not-voting-total> ... <party>Democratic</party><yea-total>210</yea-total><nay-total>4</nay-total><present-total>0</present-total><not-voting-total>0</not-voting-total> ... <total-stub>Totals</total-stub><yea-total>212</yea-total><nay-total>219</nay-total><present-total>0</present-total><not-voting-total>1</not-voting-total>
- Roll Call 114, H.Con.Res.40, 16 April 2026 (XML)
Office of the Clerk, US House of Representatives, 2026-04-16 · supports
“<legis-num>H CON RES 40</legis-num> ... <vote-result>Failed</vote-result> ... <action-date>16-Apr-2026</action-date> ... <party>Republican</party><yea-total>1</yea-total><nay-total>212</nay-total><present-total>1</present-total><not-voting-total>3</not-voting-total> ... <party>Democratic</party><yea-total>212</yea-total><nay-total>1</nay-total><present-total>0</present-total><not-voting-total>0</not-voting-total> ... <party>Independent</party><yea-total>0</yea-total><nay-total>1</nay-total> ... <total-stub>Totals</total-stub><yea-total>213</yea-total><nay-total>214</nay-total><present-total>1</present-total><not-voting-total>3</not-voting-total>”
<legis-num>H CON RES 40</legis-num> ... <vote-result>Failed</vote-result> ... <action-date>16-Apr-2026</action-date> ... <party>Republican</party><yea-total>1</yea-total><nay-total>212</nay-total><present-total>1</present-total><not-voting-total>3</not-voting-total> ... <party>Democratic</party><yea-total>212</yea-total><nay-total>1</nay-total><present-total>0</present-total><not-voting-total>0</not-voting-total> ... <party>Independent</party><yea-total>0</yea-total><nay-total>1</nay-total> ... <total-stub>Totals</total-stub><yea-total>213</yea-total><nay-total>214</nay-total><present-total>1</present-total><not-voting-total>3</not-voting-total>
- Roll Call 170, H.Con.Res.75, 14 May 2026 (XML)
Office of the Clerk, US House of Representatives, 2026-05-14 · supports
“<legis-num>H CON RES 75</legis-num> ... <vote-result>Failed</vote-result> ... <action-date>14-May-2026</action-date> ... <party>Republican</party><yea-total>3</yea-total><nay-total>210</nay-total><present-total>0</present-total><not-voting-total>4</not-voting-total> ... <party>Democratic</party><yea-total>209</yea-total><nay-total>1</nay-total><present-total>0</present-total><not-voting-total>2</not-voting-total> ... <total-stub>Totals</total-stub><yea-total>212</yea-total><nay-total>212</nay-total><present-total>0</present-total><not-voting-total>6</not-voting-total>”
<legis-num>H CON RES 75</legis-num> ... <vote-result>Failed</vote-result> ... <action-date>14-May-2026</action-date> ... <party>Republican</party><yea-total>3</yea-total><nay-total>210</nay-total><present-total>0</present-total><not-voting-total>4</not-voting-total> ... <party>Democratic</party><yea-total>209</yea-total><nay-total>1</nay-total><present-total>0</present-total><not-voting-total>2</not-voting-total> ... <total-stub>Totals</total-stub><yea-total>212</yea-total><nay-total>212</nay-total><present-total>0</present-total><not-voting-total>6</not-voting-total>
- Roll Call 199, H.Con.Res.86, 3 June 2026 (XML)
Office of the Clerk, US House of Representatives, 2026-06-03 · supports
“<legis-num>H CON RES 86</legis-num> ... <vote-result>Passed</vote-result> ... <action-date>3-Jun-2026</action-date> ... <vote-desc>Directing the President, pursuant to section 5(c) of the War Powers Resolution, to remove United States Armed Forces from hostilities with Iran</vote-desc> ... <party>Republican</party><yea-total>4</yea-total><nay-total>207</nay-total><present-total>0</present-total><not-voting-total>6</not-voting-total> ... <party>Democratic</party><yea-total>211</yea-total><nay-total>0</nay-total><present-total>0</present-total><not-voting-total>1</not-voting-total> ... <total-stub>Totals</total-stub><yea-total>215</yea-total><nay-total>208</nay-total><present-total>0</present-total><not-voting-total>7</not-voting-total>”
<legis-num>H CON RES 86</legis-num> ... <vote-result>Passed</vote-result> ... <action-date>3-Jun-2026</action-date> ... <vote-desc>Directing the President, pursuant to section 5(c) of the War Powers Resolution, to remove United States Armed Forces from hostilities with Iran</vote-desc> ... <party>Republican</party><yea-total>4</yea-total><nay-total>207</nay-total><present-total>0</present-total><not-voting-total>6</not-voting-total> ... <party>Democratic</party><yea-total>211</yea-total><nay-total>0</nay-total><present-total>0</present-total><not-voting-total>1</not-voting-total> ... <total-stub>Totals</total-stub><yea-total>215</yea-total><nay-total>208</nay-total><present-total>0</present-total><not-voting-total>7</not-voting-total>
- Roll Call 282, H.Con.Res.89, 23 July 2026 (XML)
Office of the Clerk, US House of Representatives, 2026-07-23 · supports
“<legis-num>H CON RES 89</legis-num> ... <vote-result>Passed</vote-result> ... <action-date>23-Jul-2026</action-date> ... <party>Republican</party><yea-total>4</yea-total><nay-total>207</nay-total><present-total>0</present-total><not-voting-total>7</not-voting-total> ... <party>Democratic</party><yea-total>210</yea-total><nay-total>0</nay-total><present-total>0</present-total><not-voting-total>2</not-voting-total> ... <total-stub>Totals</total-stub><yea-total>214</yea-total><nay-total>208</nay-total><present-total>0</present-total><not-voting-total>9</not-voting-total>”
<legis-num>H CON RES 89</legis-num> ... <vote-result>Passed</vote-result> ... <action-date>23-Jul-2026</action-date> ... <party>Republican</party><yea-total>4</yea-total><nay-total>207</nay-total><present-total>0</present-total><not-voting-total>7</not-voting-total> ... <party>Democratic</party><yea-total>210</yea-total><nay-total>0</nay-total><present-total>0</present-total><not-voting-total>2</not-voting-total> ... <total-stub>Totals</total-stub><yea-total>214</yea-total><nay-total>208</nay-total><present-total>0</present-total><not-voting-total>9</not-voting-total>
- Roll Call 307, H.Con.Res.93, 15 September 2026 (XML)
Office of the Clerk, US House of Representatives, 2026-09-15 · supports
“<legis-num>H CON RES 93</legis-num> ... <vote-result>Passed</vote-result> ... <action-date>15-Sep-2026</action-date> ... <party>Republican</party><yea-total>7</yea-total><nay-total>203</nay-total><present-total>0</present-total><not-voting-total>8</not-voting-total> ... <party>Democratic</party><yea-total>213</yea-total><nay-total>0</nay-total><present-total>0</present-total><not-voting-total>1</not-voting-total> ... <total-stub>Totals</total-stub><yea-total>220</yea-total><nay-total>204</nay-total><present-total>0</present-total><not-voting-total>9</not-voting-total>”
<legis-num>H CON RES 93</legis-num> ... <vote-result>Passed</vote-result> ... <action-date>15-Sep-2026</action-date> ... <party>Republican</party><yea-total>7</yea-total><nay-total>203</nay-total><present-total>0</present-total><not-voting-total>8</not-voting-total> ... <party>Democratic</party><yea-total>213</yea-total><nay-total>0</nay-total><present-total>0</present-total><not-voting-total>1</not-voting-total> ... <total-stub>Totals</total-stub><yea-total>220</yea-total><nay-total>204</nay-total><present-total>0</present-total><not-voting-total>9</not-voting-total>
- Senate Roll Call Votes, 119th Congress, 2nd Session (vote menu XML; Internet Archive copy of 10 October 2026)
United States Senate, 2026-10-10 · supports
“00244 24-Sep H.Con.Res. 89 On the Concurrent Resolution Rejected 49 50 H. Con. Res. 89; A concurrent resolution directing the President, pursuant to section 5(c) of the War Powers Resolution, to remove United States Armed Forces from hostilities with Iran. ... 00216 30-Jul S.J.Res. 181 On the Motion to Discharge Rejected 49 50 ... 00207 23-Jul S.J.Res. 180 On the Motion to Discharge Rejected 47 49 ... 00192 24-Jun S.J.Res. 185 On the Motion to Proceed Rejected 47 50 ... 00184 23-Jun H.Con.Res. 86 On the Concurrent Resolution Agreed to 50 48 ... 00174 16-Jun S.J.Res. 172 On the Motion to Discharge Rejected 47 48 ... 00129 19-May S.J.Res. 185 On the Motion to Discharge Agreed to 50 47 ... 00118 13-May S.J.Res. 163 On the Motion to Discharge Rejected 49 50 ... 00113 30-Apr S.J.Res. 184 On the Motion to Discharge Rejected 47 50 ... 00088 22-Apr S.J.Res. 114 On the Motion to Discharge Rejected 46 51 ... 00079 15-Apr S.J.Res. 123 On the Motion to Discharge Rejected 47 52 ... 00069 24-Mar S.J.Res. 116 On the Motion to Discharge Rejected 47 53 ... 00058 18-Mar S.J.Res. 118 On the Motion to Discharge Rejected 47 53 ... 00046 04-Mar S.J.Res. 104 On the Motion to Discharge Rejected 47 53 Motion to Discharge S.J. Res. 104; A joint resolution to direct the removal of United States Armed Forces from hostilities within or against the Islamic Republic of Iran that have not been authorized by Congress.”
00244 24-Sep H.Con.Res. 89 On the Concurrent Resolution Rejected 49 50 H. Con. Res. 89; A concurrent resolution directing the President, pursuant to section 5(c) of the War Powers Resolution, to remove United States Armed Forces from hostilities with Iran. ... 00216 30-Jul S.J.Res. 181 On the Motion to Discharge Rejected 49 50 ... 00207 23-Jul S.J.Res. 180 On the Motion to Discharge Rejected 47 49 ... 00192 24-Jun S.J.Res. 185 On the Motion to Proceed Rejected 47 50 ... 00184 23-Jun H.Con.Res. 86 On the Concurrent Resolution Agreed to 50 48 ... 00174 16-Jun S.J.Res. 172 On the Motion to Discharge Rejected 47 48 ... 00129 19-May S.J.Res. 185 On the Motion to Discharge Agreed to 50 47 ... 00118 13-May S.J.Res. 163 On the Motion to Discharge Rejected 49 50 ... 00113 30-Apr S.J.Res. 184 On the Motion to Discharge Rejected 47 50 ... 00088 22-Apr S.J.Res. 114 On the Motion to Discharge Rejected 46 51 ... 00079 15-Apr S.J.Res. 123 On the Motion to Discharge Rejected 47 52 ... 00069 24-Mar S.J.Res. 116 On the Motion to Discharge Rejected 47 53 ... 00058 18-Mar S.J.Res. 118 On the Motion to Discharge Rejected 47 53 ... 00046 04-Mar S.J.Res. 104 On the Motion to Discharge Rejected 47 53 Motion to Discharge S.J. Res. 104; A joint resolution to direct the removal of United States Armed Forces from hostilities within or against the Islamic Republic of Iran that have not been authorized by Congress.
- Roll Call Vote 184, 119th Congress, 2nd Session: H.Con.Res.86 (XML; Internet Archive copy)
United States Senate, 2026-06-23 · supports
“Concurrent Resolution Agreed to (50-48) ... Collins (R-ME) Collins Susan R ME Yea”
Concurrent Resolution Agreed to (50-48) ... Collins (R-ME) Collins Susan R ME Yea
- Congressional Votes Database
GovTrack.us, 2026-10 · supports
“Analysis and Commentary Oct. 26, 2026: What Comes After the Election? ... On the Nomination PN1129: Keith Sonderling, of Florida, to be Secretary of Labor Senate Vote Nomination #256 Confirmed 47/41 Sept. 30, 2026 ... H.Con.Res. 89: Directing the President, pursuant to section 5(c) of the War Powers Resolution, to remove United States Armed Forces from hostilities with Iran. Senate Vote Concurrent #244 Resolution Sept. 24, Rejected 49/50”
Analysis and Commentary Oct. 26, 2026: What Comes After the Election? ... On the Nomination PN1129: Keith Sonderling, of Florida, to be Secretary of Labor Senate Vote Nomination #256 Confirmed 47/41 Sept. 30, 2026 ... H.Con.Res. 89: Directing the President, pursuant to section 5(c) of the War Powers Resolution, to remove United States Armed Forces from hostilities with Iran. Senate Vote Concurrent #244 Resolution Sept. 24, Rejected 49/50
- Law and the Iran War: After the First 60 Days
Lawfare, 2026-05-08 · supports
“this past Friday, May 1, President Trump argued that the administration had already complied with the War Powers Resolution’s 60-day cut-off. “There has been no exchange of fire between United States Forces and Iran since April 7, 2026,” the letter asserted ... Hence, in the Trump administration’s view, “[t]he hostilities that began on February 28, 2026”—the day when Operation Epic Fury against Iran began—”have terminated[,]” ... the May 1 letter also notes that “the threat posed by Iran to the United States and our Armed Forces remains significant[.]” ... If the administration viewed the blockade that began on April 13 ... While Section 5(c) of the War Powers Resolution initially gave Congress the power to compel the president to remove U.S. armed forces from ongoing hostilities through a concurrent resolution, the Supreme Court’s subsequent decision in INS v. Chadha brought such arrangements into serious constitutional doubt. And while joint resolutions avoid Chadha concerns, they only do so because they are subject to a presidential veto. ... voiced frustration with the Trump administration’s refusal to seek congressional authorization before the 60-day mark”
this past Friday, May 1, President Trump argued that the administration had already complied with the War Powers Resolution’s 60-day cut-off. “There has been no exchange of fire between United States Forces and Iran since April 7, 2026,” the letter asserted ... Hence, in the Trump administration’s view, “[t]he hostilities that began on February 28, 2026”—the day when Operation Epic Fury against Iran began—”have terminated[,]” ... the May 1 letter also notes that “the threat posed by Iran to the United States and our Armed Forces remains significant[.]” ... If the administration viewed the blockade that began on April 13 ... While Section 5(c) of the War Powers Resolution initially gave Congress the power to compel the president to remove U.S. armed forces from ongoing hostilities through a concurrent resolution, the Supreme Court’s subsequent decision in INS v. Chadha brought such arrangements into serious constitutional doubt. And while joint resolutions avoid Chadha concerns, they only do so because they are subject to a presidential veto. ... voiced frustration with the Trump administration’s refusal to seek congressional authorization before the 60-day mark
- The War Powers Resolution: Concepts and Practice (R42699)
Congressional Research Service, 2019-03-08 · supports
“From 1975 through March 2017, Presidents have submitted 168 reports as the result of the War Powers Resolution, but only one, the 1975 Mayaguez seizure, cited Section 4(a)(1), which triggers the 60-day withdrawal requirement ... Section 5(c) requires the President to remove the forces at any time if Congress so directs by concurrent resolution; the effectiveness of this subsection is uncertain because of the 1983 Supreme Court decision on the legislative veto. ... A concurrent resolution is adopted by both chambers, but it does not require presentment to the President for signature or veto.”
From 1975 through March 2017, Presidents have submitted 168 reports as the result of the War Powers Resolution, but only one, the 1975 Mayaguez seizure, cited Section 4(a)(1), which triggers the 60-day withdrawal requirement ... Section 5(c) requires the President to remove the forces at any time if Congress so directs by concurrent resolution; the effectiveness of this subsection is uncertain because of the 1983 Supreme Court decision on the legislative veto. ... A concurrent resolution is adopted by both chambers, but it does not require presentment to the President for signature or veto.
- Letter to the President pro tempore of the Senate on Operation Epic Fury (War Powers report), March 2, 2026
The White House (copy published by Just Security), 2026-03-02 · supports
“I acted pursuant to my constitutional authority as Commander in Chief and Chief Executive to conduct United States foreign relations. ... I am providing this report as part of my efforts to keep the Congress fully informed, consistent with the War Powers Resolution (Public Law 93-148). ... in collective self-defense of our regional allies, including Israel.”
I acted pursuant to my constitutional authority as Commander in Chief and Chief Executive to conduct United States foreign relations. ... I am providing this report as part of my efforts to keep the Congress fully informed, consistent with the War Powers Resolution (Public Law 93-148). ... in collective self-defense of our regional allies, including Israel.
- Trump’s Interpretation of the War Powers Resolution
Executive Functions (Jack Goldsmith), 2026-05-04 · supports
“the 'hostilities' ... that began on Feb. 28 had 'terminated' due to the April 7 ceasefire ... highly misleading”
the 'hostilities' ... that began on Feb. 28 had 'terminated' due to the April 7 ceasefire ... highly misleading
- Letter Informing Congress of Military Action Commenced on June 9, 2026 (House Document 119-162)
The White House (US Government Publishing Office), 2026-06-12 · supports
“I write today to apprise you of military action commenced on June 9, 2026, at my direction against the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran. ... As previously communicated to the Congress, I ordered a 2-week ceasefire on April 7, 2026. The ceasefire was then extended. ... On June 8, 2026, despite these good-faith diplomatic efforts and the ongoing ceasefire, Iran engaged a United States Army AH-64 Apache helicopter, forcing its crash landing. In response, at my direction, on June 9, 2026, United States Armed Forces commenced precision strikes against numerous targets within Iran ... I acted pursuant to my constitutional authority as Commander in Chief and as Chief Executive to conduct United States foreign relations.”
I write today to apprise you of military action commenced on June 9, 2026, at my direction against the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran. ... As previously communicated to the Congress, I ordered a 2-week ceasefire on April 7, 2026. The ceasefire was then extended. ... On June 8, 2026, despite these good-faith diplomatic efforts and the ongoing ceasefire, Iran engaged a United States Army AH-64 Apache helicopter, forcing its crash landing. In response, at my direction, on June 9, 2026, United States Armed Forces commenced precision strikes against numerous targets within Iran ... I acted pursuant to my constitutional authority as Commander in Chief and as Chief Executive to conduct United States foreign relations.
- Letter Informing Congress of Military Actions Taken on June 26 and June 28, 2026 (House Document 119-167)
The White House (US Government Publishing Office), 2026-06-29 · supports
“I write today to apprise you of military actions taken at my direction against the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran on June 26 and June 28, 2026. ... These efforts led to my signing a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran on June 17, 2026. The MOU requires the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran to make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels . . . from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman. Despite this commitment, Iran attacked a neutral-flagged commercial vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz on June 25, 2026. At my direction, United States Armed Forces responded on June 26, 2026, with defensive strikes ... Following another Iranian attack against a neutral-flagged commercial vessel on June 27, 2026, United States Armed Forces responded at my direction on June 28, 2026, with precision strikes”
I write today to apprise you of military actions taken at my direction against the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran on June 26 and June 28, 2026. ... These efforts led to my signing a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran on June 17, 2026. The MOU requires the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran to make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels . . . from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman. Despite this commitment, Iran attacked a neutral-flagged commercial vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz on June 25, 2026. At my direction, United States Armed Forces responded on June 26, 2026, with defensive strikes ... Following another Iranian attack against a neutral-flagged commercial vessel on June 27, 2026, United States Armed Forces responded at my direction on June 28, 2026, with precision strikes
- Letter Informing Congress of Military Action Commenced on July 7, 2026 (House Document 119-169)
The White House (US Government Publishing Office), 2026-07-10 · supports
“I write to apprise you of military action commenced on July 7, 2026, against the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran. ... Despite this commitment, Iran again attacked several neutral-flagged commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-7, 2026. At my direction, United States Armed Forces responded, commencing on July 7, 2026, with defensive strikes against targets within Iran”
I write to apprise you of military action commenced on July 7, 2026, against the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran. ... Despite this commitment, Iran again attacked several neutral-flagged commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-7, 2026. At my direction, United States Armed Forces responded, commencing on July 7, 2026, with defensive strikes against targets within Iran
- Letter Informing Congress of Military Action Commenced on July 27, 2026 (House Document 119-183)
The White House (US Government Publishing Office), 2026-08-03 · supports
“I write to apprise you of military action commenced on July 27, 2026, against targets in the Republic of Iraq following Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-directed attacks by Iranian aligned militia groups (IAMGs).”
I write to apprise you of military action commenced on July 27, 2026, against targets in the Republic of Iraq following Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-directed attacks by Iranian aligned militia groups (IAMGs).
- Letter Informing Congress of Military Action Commenced on September 1, 2026 (House Document 119-193)
The White House (US Government Publishing Office), 2026-09-03 · supports
“I write today to apprise you of military action commenced on September 1, 2026, against the Islamic Republic of Iran. At my direction, United States Armed Forces responded to Iran's late August 2026 attacks against United States Armed Forces with defensive strikes against targets within Iran and Iranian territorial waters including ... oil tankers belonging to the National Iranian Oil Company ... I acted pursuant to my constitutional authority as Commander in Chief and as Chief Executive to conduct United States foreign relations. I am providing this report as part of my efforts to keep the Congress fully informed, consistent with the War Powers Resolution (Public Law 93-148).”
I write today to apprise you of military action commenced on September 1, 2026, against the Islamic Republic of Iran. At my direction, United States Armed Forces responded to Iran's late August 2026 attacks against United States Armed Forces with defensive strikes against targets within Iran and Iranian territorial waters including ... oil tankers belonging to the National Iranian Oil Company ... I acted pursuant to my constitutional authority as Commander in Chief and as Chief Executive to conduct United States foreign relations. I am providing this report as part of my efforts to keep the Congress fully informed, consistent with the War Powers Resolution (Public Law 93-148).
- Instances of Use of United States Armed Forces Abroad, 1798–2023 (R42738)
Congressional Research Service, 2023-06-07 · complicates
“The following list reviews hundreds of instances in which the United States has used military forces abroad in situations of military conflict or potential conflict to protect U.S. citizens or promote U.S. interests. The list does not include covert actions or the many occurrences in which U.S. forces have been stationed abroad... Eleven times in its history, the United States has formally declared war against foreign nations. These 11 U.S. war declarations encompassed five separate wars”
The following list reviews hundreds of instances in which the United States has used military forces abroad in situations of military conflict or potential conflict to protect U.S. citizens or promote U.S. interests. The list does not include covert actions or the many occurrences in which U.S. forces have been stationed abroad... Eleven times in its history, the United States has formally declared war against foreign nations. These 11 U.S. war declarations encompassed five separate wars
- Roll Call 493, H.J.Res.68, 24 June 2011 (XML)
Office of the Clerk, US House of Representatives, 2011-06-24 · complicates
“<legis-num>H J RES 68</legis-num> <vote-question>On Passage</vote-question> <vote-result>Failed</vote-result> <action-date>24-Jun-2011</action-date> <vote-desc>Authorizing the limited use of the United States Armed Forces in support of the NATO mission in Libya</vote-desc> ... <total-stub>Totals</total-stub><yea-total>123</yea-total><nay-total>295</nay-total>”
<legis-num>H J RES 68</legis-num> <vote-question>On Passage</vote-question> <vote-result>Failed</vote-result> <action-date>24-Jun-2011</action-date> <vote-desc>Authorizing the limited use of the United States Armed Forces in support of the NATO mission in Libya</vote-desc> ... <total-stub>Totals</total-stub><yea-total>123</yea-total><nay-total>295</nay-total>
- Roll Call 494, H.R.2278, 24 June 2011 (XML)
Office of the Clerk, US House of Representatives, 2011-06-24 · complicates
“<legis-num>H R 2278</legis-num> <vote-question>On Passage</vote-question> <vote-result>Failed</vote-result> <action-date>24-Jun-2011</action-date> <vote-desc>To limit the use of funds appropriated to the Department of Defense for United States Armed Forces in support of North Atlantic Treaty Organization Operation Unified Protector with respect to Libya, unless otherwise specifically authorized by law</vote-desc> ... <total-stub>Totals</total-stub><yea-total>180</yea-total><nay-total>238</nay-total>”
<legis-num>H R 2278</legis-num> <vote-question>On Passage</vote-question> <vote-result>Failed</vote-result> <action-date>24-Jun-2011</action-date> <vote-desc>To limit the use of funds appropriated to the Department of Defense for United States Armed Forces in support of North Atlantic Treaty Organization Operation Unified Protector with respect to Libya, unless otherwise specifically authorized by law</vote-desc> ... <total-stub>Totals</total-stub><yea-total>180</yea-total><nay-total>238</nay-total>
- Roll Call 153, S.J.Res.7, 4 April 2019 (XML)
Office of the Clerk, US House of Representatives, 2019-04-04 · complicates
“<legis-num>S J RES 7</legis-num> <vote-question>On Passage</vote-question> <vote-result>Passed</vote-result> <action-date>4-Apr-2019</action-date> <vote-desc>To direct the removal of the United States Armed Forces from hostilities in the Republic of Yemen that have not been authorized by Congress</vote-desc> ... <total-stub>Totals</total-stub><yea-total>247</yea-total><nay-total>175</nay-total><present-total>1</present-total>”
<legis-num>S J RES 7</legis-num> <vote-question>On Passage</vote-question> <vote-result>Passed</vote-result> <action-date>4-Apr-2019</action-date> <vote-desc>To direct the removal of the United States Armed Forces from hostilities in the Republic of Yemen that have not been authorized by Congress</vote-desc> ... <total-stub>Totals</total-stub><yea-total>247</yea-total><nay-total>175</nay-total><present-total>1</present-total>
- Senate Roll Call Votes, 116th Congress, 1st Session (vote menu XML; Internet Archive copy)
United States Senate, 2019 · complicates
“00094 02-May S.J.Res. 7 On Overriding the Veto Veto Sustained 53 45 Shall the Joint Resolution S.J. Res. 7 Pass, the Objections of the President of the United States Notwithstanding; A joint resolution to direct the removal of United States Armed Forces from hostilities in the Republic of Yemen that have not been authorized by Congress. ... 00048 13-Mar S.J.Res. 7 On the Joint Resolution Passed 54 46”
00094 02-May S.J.Res. 7 On Overriding the Veto Veto Sustained 53 45 Shall the Joint Resolution S.J. Res. 7 Pass, the Objections of the President of the United States Notwithstanding; A joint resolution to direct the removal of United States Armed Forces from hostilities in the Republic of Yemen that have not been authorized by Congress. ... 00048 13-Mar S.J.Res. 7 On the Joint Resolution Passed 54 46
- Roll Call 101, S.J.Res.68, 11 March 2020 (XML)
Office of the Clerk, US House of Representatives, 2020-03-11 · complicates
“<legis-num>S J RES 68</legis-num> <vote-question>On Passage</vote-question> <vote-result>Passed</vote-result> <action-date>11-Mar-2020</action-date> <vote-desc>To direct the removal of United States Armed Forces from hostilities against the Islamic Republic of Iran that have not been authorized by Congress</vote-desc> ... <total-stub>Totals</total-stub><yea-total>227</yea-total><nay-total>186</nay-total>”
<legis-num>S J RES 68</legis-num> <vote-question>On Passage</vote-question> <vote-result>Passed</vote-result> <action-date>11-Mar-2020</action-date> <vote-desc>To direct the removal of United States Armed Forces from hostilities against the Islamic Republic of Iran that have not been authorized by Congress</vote-desc> ... <total-stub>Totals</total-stub><yea-total>227</yea-total><nay-total>186</nay-total>
- Senate Roll Call Votes, 116th Congress, 2nd Session (vote menu XML; Internet Archive copy)
United States Senate, 2020 · complicates
“00084 07-May S.J.Res. 68 On Overriding the Veto Veto Sustained 49 44 Shall the Joint Resolution S.J. Res. 68 Pass, the Objections of the President of the United States to the Contrary Notwithstanding?; A joint resolution to direct the removal of United States Armed Forces from hostilities against the Islamic Republic of Iran that have not been authorized by Congress. ... 00052 13-Feb S.J.Res. 68 On the Joint Resolution Passed 55 45”
00084 07-May S.J.Res. 68 On Overriding the Veto Veto Sustained 49 44 Shall the Joint Resolution S.J. Res. 68 Pass, the Objections of the President of the United States to the Contrary Notwithstanding?; A joint resolution to direct the removal of United States Armed Forces from hostilities against the Islamic Republic of Iran that have not been authorized by Congress. ... 00052 13-Feb S.J.Res. 68 On the Joint Resolution Passed 55 45
- Friday, June 27, 2025 (Senate floor wrap-up)
Senate Democrats (Senate Periodical Press Gallery floor log), 2025-06-27 · complicates
“By a vote of 47-53, the Senate did not agree to S.J. Res.59, the Kaine War Powers Resolution on Iran. Senator Paul (R) voted aye and Senator Fetterman (D) voted no.”
By a vote of 47-53, the Senate did not agree to S.J. Res.59, the Kaine War Powers Resolution on Iran. Senator Paul (R) voted aye and Senator Fetterman (D) voted no.
- After the Rubicon: Congress, Presidents, and the Politics of Waging War (publisher's description)
University of Chicago Press, 2010 · supports
“Kriner expertly demonstrates the full extent to which Congress materially shapes the initiation, scope, and duration of major military actions ... He shows how the balance of party power in the legislature trumps conventional strategic variables in explaining the duration of U.S. military conflicts.”
Kriner expertly demonstrates the full extent to which Congress materially shapes the initiation, scope, and duration of major military actions ... He shows how the balance of party power in the legislature trumps conventional strategic variables in explaining the duration of U.S. military conflicts.
- Iran conflict remains deeply unpopular, as many Americans expect it to go on for months
Pew Research Center, 2026-10-08 · supports
“Around two-thirds of Americans (65%) disapprove of the way President Donald Trump is handling the U.S. military action in Iran, while a third (33%) approve ... Evaluations of the initial decision to use force are similar: 34% now view this as the right decision – down 4 percentage points from March. ... Today, 33% of adults say they approve of how Trump is handling the U.S. military action against Iran – down from 37% in March. This decline has come entirely from Republicans: At the start of the conflict, 69% approved of his handling of the conflict. Today, 63% do. Democrats’ views are unchanged. ... Today, 65% of Republicans say the decision to use force in Iran was the right one – down from 71% in March.”
Around two-thirds of Americans (65%) disapprove of the way President Donald Trump is handling the U.S. military action in Iran, while a third (33%) approve ... Evaluations of the initial decision to use force are similar: 34% now view this as the right decision – down 4 percentage points from March. ... Today, 33% of adults say they approve of how Trump is handling the U.S. military action against Iran – down from 37% in March. This decline has come entirely from Republicans: At the start of the conflict, 69% approved of his handling of the conflict. Today, 63% do. Democrats’ views are unchanged. ... Today, 65% of Republicans say the decision to use force in Iran was the right one – down from 71% in March.
- Americans Broadly Disapprove of U.S. Military Action in Iran
Pew Research Center, 2026-03-25 · supports
“About six-in-ten Americans (61%) disapprove of Trump’s handling of the conflict, while 37% approve. ... The new Pew Research Center survey of 3,524 U.S. adults, conducted March 16-22, also finds a similar balance of opinion on whether the initial decision to use military force was right (38%) or wrong (59%). ... In contrast, about seven-in-ten Republicans and Republican leaners approve of how Trump is handling the conflict (69%) and think the U.S. made the right decision (71%).”
About six-in-ten Americans (61%) disapprove of Trump’s handling of the conflict, while 37% approve. ... The new Pew Research Center survey of 3,524 U.S. adults, conducted March 16-22, also finds a similar balance of opinion on whether the initial decision to use military force was right (38%) or wrong (59%). ... In contrast, about seven-in-ten Republicans and Republican leaners approve of how Trump is handling the conflict (69%) and think the U.S. made the right decision (71%).
- Gallup News Service, June Wave 1, Final Topline (June 1–15, 2026)
Gallup, 2026-06 · supports
“Results are based on telephone interviews conducted June 1-15, 2026, with a random sample of –1,001—adults ... QN24: Do you approve or disapprove of this U.S. military action against Iran? ... Total ... Republican Independent Democrat ... Approve 34% ... 79% 26% 8% ... Disapprove 63% ... 19% 68% 90% ... (DK)/(Refused) 4% ... 2% 6% 2%”
Results are based on telephone interviews conducted June 1-15, 2026, with a random sample of –1,001—adults ... QN24: Do you approve or disapprove of this U.S. military action against Iran? ... Total ... Republican Independent Democrat ... Approve 34% ... 79% 26% 8% ... Disapprove 63% ... 19% 68% 90% ... (DK)/(Refused) 4% ... 2% 6% 2%
- Quinnipiac University National Poll, released March 9, 2026
Quinnipiac University Poll, 2026-03-09 · supports
“Fifty-three percent of voters oppose the U.S. military action against Iran, while 40 percent support it. Democrats (89 – 7 percent) and independents (60 – 31 percent) oppose the U.S. military action against Iran, while Republicans (85 – 11 percent) support it. ... 10. Do you support or oppose the U.S. military action against Iran? ... Tot Rep Dem Ind ... Support 40% 85% 7% 31% ... Oppose 53 11 89 60 ... DK/NA 7 5 4 9 ... 15. Do you think President Trump should have received approval from Congress before taking military action against Iran, or not? ... Tot Rep Dem Ind ... Yes/Should have 59% 22% 92% 64% ... No 38 76 5 33 ... DK/NA 3 2 3 3 ... 1,002 self-identified registered voters nationwide were surveyed from March 6th – 8th”
Fifty-three percent of voters oppose the U.S. military action against Iran, while 40 percent support it. Democrats (89 – 7 percent) and independents (60 – 31 percent) oppose the U.S. military action against Iran, while Republicans (85 – 11 percent) support it. ... 10. Do you support or oppose the U.S. military action against Iran? ... Tot Rep Dem Ind ... Support 40% 85% 7% 31% ... Oppose 53 11 89 60 ... DK/NA 7 5 4 9 ... 15. Do you think President Trump should have received approval from Congress before taking military action against Iran, or not? ... Tot Rep Dem Ind ... Yes/Should have 59% 22% 92% 64% ... No 38 76 5 33 ... DK/NA 3 2 3 3 ... 1,002 self-identified registered voters nationwide were surveyed from March 6th – 8th
- Address Accepting the Presidential Nomination at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin
The American Presidency Project (UC Santa Barbara), 2024-07-18 · supports
“I was the first president in modern times to start no new wars. ... With our victory in November, the years of war, weakness and chaos will be over. I don't have wars. ... they did everything possible for Iran and now Iran is very close to having a nuclear weapon, which would have never happened.”
I was the first president in modern times to start no new wars. ... With our victory in November, the years of war, weakness and chaos will be over. I don't have wars. ... they did everything possible for Iran and now Iran is very close to having a nuclear weapon, which would have never happened.
- Remarks Accepting Election as the 47th President of the United States in Palm Beach, Florida
The American Presidency Project (UC Santa Barbara), 2024-11-06 · supports
“They said: 'He will start a war.' I'm not going to start a war. I'm going to stop wars.”
They said: 'He will start a war.' I'm not going to start a war. I'm going to stop wars.
- Iran Update Special Report, July 13, 2026
Institute for the Study of War and AEI's Critical Threats Project, 2026-07-13 · supports
“The US-Iran ceasefire has effectively ended with relatively more intense and consistent exchanges of fire in the Persian Gulf. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Navy announced on July 11 that it closed the strait, struck a Cyprus-flagged vessel, and then struck a second unspecified vessel on July 12. The United States struck dozens of Iranian military targets on July 12 to degrade Iran’s ability to threaten shipping. ... Iran has continuously made efforts to reconstitute its ballistic missile and drone programs since the ceasefire on April 8. ... The United States will resume its blockade of Iranian ports beginning on July 14 at 4:00 PM ET.”
The US-Iran ceasefire has effectively ended with relatively more intense and consistent exchanges of fire in the Persian Gulf. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Navy announced on July 11 that it closed the strait, struck a Cyprus-flagged vessel, and then struck a second unspecified vessel on July 12. The United States struck dozens of Iranian military targets on July 12 to degrade Iran’s ability to threaten shipping. ... Iran has continuously made efforts to reconstitute its ballistic missile and drone programs since the ceasefire on April 8. ... The United States will resume its blockade of Iranian ports beginning on July 14 at 4:00 PM ET.
- Iran Update, October 19, 2026
Institute for the Study of War and AEI's Critical Threats Project, 2026-10-19 · supports
“The Iranian regime's appointment of Mehrdad Akhlaghi, who has extensive experience in missile technology, as Iran's new defense minister indicates that the regime is prioritizing the reconstitution of its missile program. ... stated on October 19 that Iran will not rebuild defense industrial facilities at old locations but will instead construct them 'in mountains and security structures.'”
The Iranian regime's appointment of Mehrdad Akhlaghi, who has extensive experience in missile technology, as Iran's new defense minister indicates that the regime is prioritizing the reconstitution of its missile program. ... stated on October 19 that Iran will not rebuild defense industrial facilities at old locations but will instead construct them 'in mountains and security structures.'
- Joint E3 leaders’ statement on Iran: 28 February 2026
UK Government (Prime Minister's Office), 2026-02-28 · complicates
“We did not participate in these strikes, but are in close contact with our international partners, including the United States, Israel, and partners in the region. ... We condemn Iranian attacks on countries in the region in the strongest terms. … Ultimately, the Iranian people must be allowed to determine their future.”
We did not participate in these strikes, but are in close contact with our international partners, including the United States, Israel, and partners in the region. ... We condemn Iranian attacks on countries in the region in the strongest terms. … Ultimately, the Iranian people must be allowed to determine their future.
- Foreign Minister's article in Le Monde
Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Sultanate of Oman, 2026-07-14 · complicates
“Sayyid Badr describes the war as "a catastrophe". He notes that it has been launched without United Nations authorisation and has failed to achieve the objectives cited to justify it.”
Sayyid Badr describes the war as "a catastrophe". He notes that it has been launched without United Nations authorisation and has failed to achieve the objectives cited to justify it.
- NPT Safeguards Agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran (GOV/2026/50)
International Atomic Energy Agency, 2026-09-01 · supports
“The Director General was in attendance at the indirect negotiations between the United States of America and Iran that took place on 17 and 26 February 2026 in Geneva ... On 28 February 2026, the United States of America and Israel launched further military attacks on Iran, including on the sites of some nuclear facilities. Consequently, the Agency stopped conducting verification activities in Iran.”
The Director General was in attendance at the indirect negotiations between the United States of America and Iran that took place on 17 and 26 February 2026 in Geneva ... On 28 February 2026, the United States of America and Israel launched further military attacks on Iran, including on the sites of some nuclear facilities. Consequently, the Agency stopped conducting verification activities in Iran.
- Iran and Nuclear Weapons Production (IF12106)
Congressional Research Service, 2026-10-13 · supports
“A June 2026 memorandum of understanding (MOU) between the United States and Iran states that 'Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons.'”
A June 2026 memorandum of understanding (MOU) between the United States and Iran states that 'Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons.'
- The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) at a Glance
Arms Control Association, 2025-02 · supports
“For 10 years operating centrifuges reduced to 5,060 IR-1 machines … For 15 years level of uranium enrichment capped at 3.67 percent uranium-235 … For 15 years the stockpile is kept under 300 kilograms of 3.67 percent enriched uranium in total (all forms) ... January 16, 2016, Implementation Day”
For 10 years operating centrifuges reduced to 5,060 IR-1 machines … For 15 years level of uranium enrichment capped at 3.67 percent uranium-235 … For 15 years the stockpile is kept under 300 kilograms of 3.67 percent enriched uranium in total (all forms) ... January 16, 2016, Implementation Day
- 2025 Iran–United States negotiations
Wikipedia, 2026-10 · supports
“The third round of high-level negotiations took place on April 26, 2025 ... The fourth round of talks were held on May 11 in Oman ... The fifth round of talks, held on May 23 in Rome ... the sixth round of US-Iran talks, scheduled in Oman on June 15, were indefinitely suspended”
The third round of high-level negotiations took place on April 26, 2025 ... The fourth round of talks were held on May 11 in Oman ... The fifth round of talks, held on May 23 in Rome ... the sixth round of US-Iran talks, scheduled in Oman on June 15, were indefinitely suspended
- Trump says US will not resume military strikes on Iran before midterm elections
Associated Press (via WCAX), 2026-10-08 · supports
“But Trump in a social media post on Thursday said the U.S. "will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd." Trump added that his team has been "having productive discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran." ... Negotiations had appeared at a standstill since Trump late last month publicly rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the U.S. met certain conditions.”
But Trump in a social media post on Thursday said the U.S. "will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd." Trump added that his team has been "having productive discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran." ... Negotiations had appeared at a standstill since Trump late last month publicly rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the U.S. met certain conditions.
- Iran Update, October 21, 2026
Institute for the Study of War and AEI's Critical Threats Project, 2026-10-21 · supports
“Several shipping and maritime security officials told Bloomberg on October 20 that at least five of the 23 recorded attacks on vessels in or near the Strait of Hormuz in the first two weeks of October struck commercial vessels' engine rooms.”
Several shipping and maritime security officials told Bloomberg on October 20 that at least five of the 23 recorded attacks on vessels in or near the Strait of Hormuz in the first two weeks of October struck commercial vessels' engine rooms.
- Iran Update, October 22, 2026
Institute for the Study of War and AEI's Critical Threats Project, 2026-10-22 · supports
“The New York Times reported on October 21 that the US and Israeli militaries have developed specific plans for a short and intensive operation against Iran after the US midterm elections on November 3, citing US officials and other people briefed on the deliberations.”
The New York Times reported on October 21 that the US and Israeli militaries have developed specific plans for a short and intensive operation against Iran after the US midterm elections on November 3, citing US officials and other people briefed on the deliberations.
- Iran Update, October 24, 2026
Institute for the Study of War and AEI's Critical Threats Project, 2026-10-24 · supports
“Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton warned on October 23 that US intelligence assessments indicate that Iran is in the "advanced stages" of planning attacks against US targets in the region.”
Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton warned on October 23 that US intelligence assessments indicate that Iran is in the "advanced stages" of planning attacks against US targets in the region.
- Iran Update, October 25, 2026
Institute for the Study of War and AEI's Critical Threats Project, 2026-10-25 · supports
“The Houthis have fired at least 12 missiles and two drones targeting Saudi Arabia since October 24”
The Houthis have fired at least 12 missiles and two drones targeting Saudi Arabia since October 24
- Iran Update, October 26, 2026
Institute for the Study of War and AEI's Critical Threats Project, 2026-10-26 · supports
“Senior officials from the Mecca Pact’s three signatories met with senior Iranian officials in Tehran on October 26 to discuss a new US-Iran ceasefire amid reported US and Israeli preparations for another round of strikes in Iran. ... Two diplomats briefed on the ongoing talks told the New York Times on October 26 that Qatari mediators are trying to secure an agreement in which the United States and Iran would make "a series of concessions over a five-day period." The diplomats added that those concessions include Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the United States lifting its naval blockade on Iranian ports. ... The United States and Iran reportedly continue to disagree on the sequencing of the agreement.”
Senior officials from the Mecca Pact’s three signatories met with senior Iranian officials in Tehran on October 26 to discuss a new US-Iran ceasefire amid reported US and Israeli preparations for another round of strikes in Iran. ... Two diplomats briefed on the ongoing talks told the New York Times on October 26 that Qatari mediators are trying to secure an agreement in which the United States and Iran would make "a series of concessions over a five-day period." The diplomats added that those concessions include Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the United States lifting its naval blockade on Iranian ports. ... The United States and Iran reportedly continue to disagree on the sequencing of the agreement.
- Iran Update, October 27, 2026
Institute for the Study of War and AEI's Critical Threats Project, 2026-10-27 · supports
“This threat comes as Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton warned in a memo on October 23 that Iran has “substantially increased” its efforts to target US personnel. ... Omani Foreign Affairs Minister Badr al Busaidi called for a Gulf non-aggression pact with Iran on October 26, but Iran is unlikely to accept such an agreement unless it can also secure a US withdrawal from the region. Regional sources said that the summit made no progress on any issue.”
This threat comes as Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton warned in a memo on October 23 that Iran has “substantially increased” its efforts to target US personnel. ... Omani Foreign Affairs Minister Badr al Busaidi called for a Gulf non-aggression pact with Iran on October 26, but Iran is unlikely to accept such an agreement unless it can also secure a US withdrawal from the region. Regional sources said that the summit made no progress on any issue.
- US warns allies to prepare for possible Iran strikes, retaliation after elections, AP sources say
Associated Press (via WCAX), 2026-10-29 · supports
“U.S. officials have told several Middle East countries and regional allies to be prepared for potential renewed military action against Iran after next week’s midterm elections in the United States — as well as the possibility that Iran will attempt to retaliate against them, according to two diplomats briefed on the matter. ... President Donald Trump has not made a final decision on whether to carry out new strikes against Iran, the diplomats stressed. ... Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Wednesday in a post on X that Tehran “continues to give diplomacy a chance to succeed” ... the United Arab Emirates foreign ministry issued a statement urging the sides to “exercise wisdom and pursue political solutions to help contain tensions” ... While the U.S. has not carried out a strike against Iran since early September, the situation in the Middle East has become more complicated.”
U.S. officials have told several Middle East countries and regional allies to be prepared for potential renewed military action against Iran after next week’s midterm elections in the United States — as well as the possibility that Iran will attempt to retaliate against them, according to two diplomats briefed on the matter. ... President Donald Trump has not made a final decision on whether to carry out new strikes against Iran, the diplomats stressed. ... Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Wednesday in a post on X that Tehran “continues to give diplomacy a chance to succeed” ... the United Arab Emirates foreign ministry issued a statement urging the sides to “exercise wisdom and pursue political solutions to help contain tensions” ... While the U.S. has not carried out a strike against Iran since early September, the situation in the Middle East has become more complicated.
- U.S. Forces Disable Cargo Vessel Attempting to Violate Blockade
US Central Command, 2026-10-10 · supports
“CENTCOM forces resumed America’s blockade against all ships entering or departing Iranian ports on July 14. Four commercial vessels have been disabled and 135 ships have been turned around during three months of strict enforcement.”
CENTCOM forces resumed America’s blockade against all ships entering or departing Iranian ports on July 14. Four commercial vessels have been disabled and 135 ships have been turned around during three months of strict enforcement.
- The Constitution of the United States: A Transcription (Article I, Section 8; Article II, Section 2)
U.S. National Archives, 1787-09-17 · supports
“Section. 8. The Congress shall have Power … To declare War, grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal, and make Rules concerning Captures on Land and Water; To raise and support Armies … Section. 2. The President shall be Commander in Chief of the Army and Navy of the United States”
Section. 8. The Congress shall have Power … To declare War, grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal, and make Rules concerning Captures on Land and Water; To raise and support Armies … Section. 2. The President shall be Commander in Chief of the Army and Navy of the United States
- House roll-call XML files 85, 114, 170, 199, 282 and 307 (2026); latest shown
Office of the Clerk, US House of Representatives, 2026-09-15 · supports
“<legis-num>H CON RES 93</legis-num> ... <vote-result>Passed</vote-result> ... <action-date>15-Sep-2026</action-date> ... <party>Republican</party><yea-total>7</yea-total><nay-total>203</nay-total> ... <party>Democratic</party><yea-total>213</yea-total><nay-total>0</nay-total> ... <total-stub>Totals</total-stub><yea-total>220</yea-total><nay-total>204</nay-total>”
<legis-num>H CON RES 93</legis-num> ... <vote-result>Passed</vote-result> ... <action-date>15-Sep-2026</action-date> ... <party>Republican</party><yea-total>7</yea-total><nay-total>203</nay-total> ... <party>Democratic</party><yea-total>213</yea-total><nay-total>0</nay-total> ... <total-stub>Totals</total-stub><yea-total>220</yea-total><nay-total>204</nay-total>
- Senate Roll Call Votes, 119th Congress, 2nd Session (vote menu XML; Internet Archive copy of 10 October 2026)
United States Senate, 2026-10-10 · supports
“00244 24-Sep H.Con.Res. 89 On the Concurrent Resolution Rejected 49 50 ... 00184 23-Jun H.Con.Res. 86 On the Concurrent Resolution Agreed to 50 48 ... 00129 19-May S.J.Res. 185 On the Motion to Discharge Agreed to 50 47 ... 00046 04-Mar S.J.Res. 104 On the Motion to Discharge Rejected 47 53”
00244 24-Sep H.Con.Res. 89 On the Concurrent Resolution Rejected 49 50 ... 00184 23-Jun H.Con.Res. 86 On the Concurrent Resolution Agreed to 50 48 ... 00129 19-May S.J.Res. 185 On the Motion to Discharge Agreed to 50 47 ... 00046 04-Mar S.J.Res. 104 On the Motion to Discharge Rejected 47 53
- Iran conflict remains deeply unpopular (chart data: approval of Trump's handling, by party)
Pew Research Center, 2026-10-08 · supports
“% who say they approve of how Donald Trump is handling the U.S. military action against Iran Date March October Total 37 33 Rep/Lean Rep 69 63 Dem/Lean Dem 9 9 ... Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 28-Oct. 4, 2026.”
% who say they approve of how Donald Trump is handling the U.S. military action against Iran Date March October Total 37 33 Rep/Lean Rep 69 63 Dem/Lean Dem 9 9 ... Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Sept. 28-Oct. 4, 2026.
Iran's Government and Its People: Elections, Opinion and Repression, 1980–2026
- The Crimson Winter: A 50 Day Record of Iran’s 2025–2026 Nationwide Protests
HRANA (Human Rights Activists News Agency), 2026-02-23 · supports
“This report adopts a disciplined human rights methodology centered on documenting minimum verifiable cases rather than publishing maximal estimates. ... • Protesters killed: 6,488 • Children killed, counted separately and not included among protesters: 236 • Civilians killed, non-protester: 76 • Military and government forces killed: 207 • Total fatalities: 7,007 An additional 11,744 cases remain under review and are not included in confirmed totals. ... • Total arrests: 53,777 • Children, teenagers, and school students arrested: 555 • University students arrested: 147”
This report adopts a disciplined human rights methodology centered on documenting minimum verifiable cases rather than publishing maximal estimates. ... • Protesters killed: 6,488 • Children killed, counted separately and not included among protesters: 236 • Civilians killed, non-protester: 76 • Military and government forces killed: 207 • Total fatalities: 7,007 An additional 11,744 cases remain under review and are not included in confirmed totals. ... • Total arrests: 53,777 • Children, teenagers, and school students arrested: 555 • University students arrested: 147
- At least 3,117 people killed during Iran protests, state media report
Al Jazeera, 2026-01-21 · supports
“Iranian state television has released the first official death toll from the recent antigovernment protests that engulfed the country, reporting that 3,117 people were killed during the crackdown. ... The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) has said 4,519 were killed during the wave of demonstrations, including 4,251 protesters, 197 security personnel, 35 people aged under 18 and 38 bystanders who it says were neither protesters nor security personnel. ... HRANA also said 9,049 additional deaths were under review.”
Iranian state television has released the first official death toll from the recent antigovernment protests that engulfed the country, reporting that 3,117 people were killed during the crackdown. ... The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) has said 4,519 were killed during the wave of demonstrations, including 4,251 protesters, 197 security personnel, 35 people aged under 18 and 38 bystanders who it says were neither protesters nor security personnel. ... HRANA also said 9,049 additional deaths were under review.
- Rights group says confirmed Iran protest toll over 6,000
Al-Monitor (AFP), 2026-01-27 · supports
“The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) said it had confirmed that 6,126 people had been killed, including 5,777 protesters, 86 minors, 214 members of the security forces and 49 bystanders. But the group, which has an extensive network of sources inside Iran and has tracked the protests on a daily basis since they began, added it was still investigating another 17,091 possible fatalities. ... At least 41,880 people have been arrested, it said.”
The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) said it had confirmed that 6,126 people had been killed, including 5,777 protesters, 86 minors, 214 members of the security forces and 49 bystanders. But the group, which has an extensive network of sources inside Iran and has tracked the protests on a daily basis since they began, added it was still investigating another 17,091 possible fatalities. ... At least 41,880 people have been arrested, it said.
- Report of the Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on the Islamic Republic of Iran (A/HRC/61/60)
UN Human Rights Council, Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on Iran, 2026-03-19 · supports
“On 21 January, the Foundation of Martyrs and Veterans Affairs announced that 3,117 individuals had been killed, including members of the security forces, and 690 'rioters'. At the time of writing the present report, one credible human rights organization had estimated that over 7,000 people, including up to 6,500 protesters, over 230 children and at least 200 members of the security forces had been killed. ... [conditions] have made it difficult for the Mission to arrive at precise estimates at the time of writing of the number of people killed and injured. ... A credible human rights organization estimated that by mid-February, over 50,000 people had been arrested ... credible human rights organizations recording at least 464 executions between July and September. A further 222 people were executed in October alone – the highest monthly total recorded in at least 25 years. ... amount to the crimes against humanity of murder, imprisonment, torture”
On 21 January, the Foundation of Martyrs and Veterans Affairs announced that 3,117 individuals had been killed, including members of the security forces, and 690 'rioters'. At the time of writing the present report, one credible human rights organization had estimated that over 7,000 people, including up to 6,500 protesters, over 230 children and at least 200 members of the security forces had been killed. ... [conditions] have made it difficult for the Mission to arrive at precise estimates at the time of writing of the number of people killed and injured. ... A credible human rights organization estimated that by mid-February, over 50,000 people had been arrested ... credible human rights organizations recording at least 464 executions between July and September. A further 222 people were executed in October alone – the highest monthly total recorded in at least 25 years. ... amount to the crimes against humanity of murder, imprisonment, torture
- A Name-Based Reckoning: Documented Fatalities and State Responsibility in Iran's 1404 Uprising
NIAC Insights (National Iranian American Council), 2026-02-26 · supports
“While HRANA notes that its broader documentation framework records 7,007 fatalities during this period, the report's most concrete and publicly verifiable contribution lies in the publication of 4,555 named individuals who were killed during the uprising. ... Initially, 2,986 names were released, with the remaining cases listed as unspecified. In a subsequent update, the number of published names rose to 3,038.”
While HRANA notes that its broader documentation framework records 7,007 fatalities during this period, the report's most concrete and publicly verifiable contribution lies in the publication of 4,555 named individuals who were killed during the uprising. ... Initially, 2,986 names were released, with the remaining cases listed as unspecified. In a subsequent update, the number of published names rose to 3,038.
- Iran: Details released of 304 deaths during protests six months after security forces’ killing spree
Amnesty International, 2020-05-20 · supports
“Amnesty International has released details of the deaths of 304 men, women and children killed by Iran's security forces during last November's ruthless crackdown ... more than 220 of the recorded deaths took place over just two days on 16 and 17 November.”
Amnesty International has released details of the deaths of 304 men, women and children killed by Iran's security forces during last November's ruthless crackdown ... more than 220 of the recorded deaths took place over just two days on 16 and 17 November.
- Freedom in the World 2026: Iran
Freedom House, 2026 · supports
“Freedom in the World 2026 Iran Not Free 10 100 PR Political Rights 4 40 CL Civil Liberties 6 60 Last Year's Score & Status 11 100 Not Free ... Authorities responded harshly to the Woman, Life, Freedom movement, which began in 2022 ... In early 2024, a United Nations fact-finding mission reported that at least 551 protesters had been killed. ... In 2023, the parliament approved a bill that would impose heavier penalties, including steeper fines and longer prison terms, on women who do not wear the hijab. Implementation was scheduled to begin in December 2024, but it was paused by the Pezeshkian administration and remained pending during 2025. Widespread defiance of the hijab mandate continued, and in December 2025 authorities arrested the organizers of a marathon on Kish Island in which many women competed without a headscarf.”
Freedom in the World 2026 Iran Not Free 10 100 PR Political Rights 4 40 CL Civil Liberties 6 60 Last Year's Score & Status 11 100 Not Free ... Authorities responded harshly to the Woman, Life, Freedom movement, which began in 2022 ... In early 2024, a United Nations fact-finding mission reported that at least 551 protesters had been killed. ... In 2023, the parliament approved a bill that would impose heavier penalties, including steeper fines and longer prison terms, on women who do not wear the hijab. Implementation was scheduled to begin in December 2024, but it was paused by the Pezeshkian administration and remained pending during 2025. Widespread defiance of the hijab mandate continued, and in December 2025 authorities arrested the organizers of a marathon on Kish Island in which many women competed without a headscarf.
- Freedom in the World 2026: Saudi Arabia
Freedom House, 2026 · complicates
“Freedom in the World 2026 Saudi Arabia Not Free 9 100 PR Political Rights 1 40 CL Civil Liberties 8 60 Last Year's Score & Status 9 100 Not Free”
Freedom in the World 2026 Saudi Arabia Not Free 9 100 PR Political Rights 1 40 CL Civil Liberties 8 60 Last Year's Score & Status 9 100 Not Free
- Countries and Territories (Freedom in the World scores)
Freedom House, 2026 · complicates
“Freedom House rates people’s access to political rights and civil liberties in 208 countries and territories through its annual Freedom in the World report. ... Country or Territory | Freedom in the World Score | Political Rights | Civil Liberties ... Iran | 10/100 Not Free | 4 | 6 ... Saudi Arabia | 9/100 Not Free”
Freedom House rates people’s access to political rights and civil liberties in 208 countries and territories through its annual Freedom in the World report. ... Country or Territory | Freedom in the World Score | Political Rights | Civil Liberties ... Iran | 10/100 Not Free | 4 | 6 ... Saudi Arabia | 9/100 Not Free
- Iran: Authorities unleash wave of oppression after hostilities with Israel
Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, 2025-09-03 · complicates
“Since 13 June, Iranian authorities have arrested over 20,000 people, including dissidents, human rights defenders, journalists, social media users, families of victims unlawfully killed in nationwide protests and foreign nationals. ... In an 12 August statement, Saeed Montazer Al-Mahdi, spokesperson for the police, announced that about 21,000 people had been arrested. ... At least nine men have been executed on politically motivated charges and/or accusations of espionage for Israel”
Since 13 June, Iranian authorities have arrested over 20,000 people, including dissidents, human rights defenders, journalists, social media users, families of victims unlawfully killed in nationwide protests and foreign nationals. ... In an 12 August statement, Saeed Montazer Al-Mahdi, spokesperson for the police, announced that about 21,000 people had been arrested. ... At least nine men have been executed on politically motivated charges and/or accusations of espionage for Israel
- Iranians’ Attitudes Toward the 2026 Protests and War
GAMAAN (Group for Analyzing and Measuring Attitudes in Iran), 2026-07-27 · supports
“The findings in this report are based on a weighted sample of 31,450 respondents inside Iran. ... 42% considered the U.S. and Israeli military action to be 'military aggression against Iran,' while nearly the same share disagreed ... About 40% viewed the U.S. and Israeli military operation as a form of 'humanitarian intervention' (R2P), while about 48% disagreed ... about 38% of society reported that they had supported military intervention both before and after the 39-day war. By contrast, about 27% said they had opposed military intervention both before and after the war. ... about 60% felt satisfaction at the weakening of the Islamic Republic during the war ... about 59% opposed Iran building nuclear weapons ... about 47% did not consider closing the Strait of Hormuz to be the right action ... about 68% of society believes that the agreement did not serve the interests of the Iranian people ... Only about 14% had a positive assessment of the regime's response”
The findings in this report are based on a weighted sample of 31,450 respondents inside Iran. ... 42% considered the U.S. and Israeli military action to be 'military aggression against Iran,' while nearly the same share disagreed ... About 40% viewed the U.S. and Israeli military operation as a form of 'humanitarian intervention' (R2P), while about 48% disagreed ... about 38% of society reported that they had supported military intervention both before and after the 39-day war. By contrast, about 27% said they had opposed military intervention both before and after the war. ... about 60% felt satisfaction at the weakening of the Islamic Republic during the war ... about 59% opposed Iran building nuclear weapons ... about 47% did not consider closing the Strait of Hormuz to be the right action ... about 68% of society believes that the agreement did not serve the interests of the Iranian people ... Only about 14% had a positive assessment of the regime's response
- Iranians’ Attitudes Toward the 2026 Protests and 39-Day War: Survey Report (Figure 17 and methodology)
GAMAAN (Group for Analyzing and Measuring Attitudes in Iran), 2026-07 · supports
“Which form of political system do you prefer? ... Republic non-federal 16.6% federal 10.9% ... Monarchy non-federal 25.4% federal 8.5% ... Islamic Republic (I.R.) %13.4 ... The form of the alternative to the I.R. doesn't matter to me %6.1 ... I lack the knowledge to choose an alternative to the I.R. %19.1 ... about 13% chose the “Islamic Republic,” indicating a decline of about 7 percentage points compared with last year. ... After weighting, the effective sample size is approximately 6,211. ... the survey reports an approximate 95% credibility level with a conservative credibility interval of ±3 percentage points. ... about 97% received the survey link through Psiphon”
Which form of political system do you prefer? ... Republic non-federal 16.6% federal 10.9% ... Monarchy non-federal 25.4% federal 8.5% ... Islamic Republic (I.R.) %13.4 ... The form of the alternative to the I.R. doesn't matter to me %6.1 ... I lack the knowledge to choose an alternative to the I.R. %19.1 ... about 13% chose the “Islamic Republic,” indicating a decline of about 7 percentage points compared with last year. ... After weighting, the effective sample size is approximately 6,211. ... the survey reports an approximate 95% credibility level with a conservative credibility interval of ±3 percentage points. ... about 97% received the survey link through Psiphon
- Has Khamenei backtracked from strict hijab enforcement?
Iran International, 2024-12-19 · supports
“Iran's Supreme National Security (SNSC) may have shelved the controversial new hijab law, some lawmakers and the media outlets in Tehran say, most likely with the consent of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. ... several lawmakers, including Deputy Speaker Ali Nikzad, have confirmed that the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) has decided to put the hijab law on hold for now ... The President heads the Security Council, but all its decisions require the Supreme Leader’s signature to come into effect.”
Iran's Supreme National Security (SNSC) may have shelved the controversial new hijab law, some lawmakers and the media outlets in Tehran say, most likely with the consent of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. ... several lawmakers, including Deputy Speaker Ali Nikzad, have confirmed that the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) has decided to put the hijab law on hold for now ... The President heads the Security Council, but all its decisions require the Supreme Leader’s signature to come into effect.
- Iran’s security council halts implementation of new hijab bill: Parliament speaker
Rudaw, 2025-05-25 · supports
“Ghalibaf told lawmakers during a tense parliamentary session that the SNSC 'has notified the parliament in writing that this [Chastity and Hijab] law should not be enacted for the time being,' adding, 'In this case, I cannot enact the law.' The law ... was finalized and published on November 30, 2024. ... An unjust law will not be enforced, and if it is, it will create discontent.”
Ghalibaf told lawmakers during a tense parliamentary session that the SNSC 'has notified the parliament in writing that this [Chastity and Hijab] law should not be enacted for the time being,' adding, 'In this case, I cannot enact the law.' The law ... was finalized and published on November 30, 2024. ... An unjust law will not be enforced, and if it is, it will create discontent.
- Iran announces Khamenei’s son Mojtaba as country's new supreme leader
Iran International, 2026-03-08 · supports
“Iran's Assembly of Experts announced in a statement on Sunday that Mojtaba Khamenei has been chosen as the country's new supreme leader, days after Iran International first reported on Tuesday that the Assembly of Experts had selected him under pressure from the Revolutionary Guards. ... “In today’s extraordinary session, the Assembly of Experts, by the decisive vote of its members, selected and introduced Ayatollah Seyed Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei as the third leader of the sacred system of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” the body said in a statement.”
Iran's Assembly of Experts announced in a statement on Sunday that Mojtaba Khamenei has been chosen as the country's new supreme leader, days after Iran International first reported on Tuesday that the Assembly of Experts had selected him under pressure from the Revolutionary Guards. ... “In today’s extraordinary session, the Assembly of Experts, by the decisive vote of its members, selected and introduced Ayatollah Seyed Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei as the third leader of the sacred system of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” the body said in a statement.
- Country Profile: Iran, Islamic Republic of
IFES ElectionGuide, 2026 · supports
“Chief of State: Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Mojtaba KHAMENEI (since 8 March 2026) ... 2013-06-14 ... Turnout 72.71”
Chief of State: Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Mojtaba KHAMENEI (since 8 March 2026) ... 2013-06-14 ... Turnout 72.71
- Three more pro-reform papers shut down
Committee to Protect Journalists, 2000-04-27 · complicates
“New York, April 27, 2000 — Hard-line political forces continued their crackdown on Iran's reformist press by closing three more newspapers, bringing to 16 the total number of publications shut down in the last week. ... which is directed by President Muhammad Khatami's brother”
New York, April 27, 2000 — Hard-line political forces continued their crackdown on Iran's reformist press by closing three more newspapers, bringing to 16 the total number of publications shut down in the last week. ... which is directed by President Muhammad Khatami's brother
- Iran's Parliamentary Elections: Inside the Candidate Approval Process
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 2016-01-22 · supports
“In January 2004, it rejected 3,600 out of 8,157 candidates for Majlis, including 83 sitting members. Ultimately, around a thousand of these were reinstated after one-third of the Majlis resigned in protest.”
In January 2004, it rejected 3,600 out of 8,157 candidates for Majlis, including 83 sitting members. Ultimately, around a thousand of these were reinstated after one-third of the Majlis resigned in protest.
- Many Incumbent And Ex-Lawmakers Barred From Running In Iran Election
Iran International, 2024-01-07 · supports
“A report on the Etemad Online website said that out of the 290 lawmakers, 275 had registered their candidacy for the upcoming elections but the qualifications of only 26 have been rejected.”
A report on the Etemad Online website said that out of the 290 lawmakers, 275 had registered their candidacy for the upcoming elections but the qualifications of only 26 have been rejected.
- Iran’s election: By the numbers
Al Jazeera, 2021-06-18 · supports
“• Seven presidential candidates approved by Iran’s Guardian Council to run out of 592 who registered, with three later dropping out • Zero women out of the 40 who registered approved to run for the presidency ... • 73 percent turnout in Iran’s last presidential election in 2017”
• Seven presidential candidates approved by Iran’s Guardian Council to run out of 592 who registered, with three later dropping out • Zero women out of the 40 who registered approved to run for the presidency ... • 73 percent turnout in Iran’s last presidential election in 2017
- Iran heads to presidential run-off on July 5 amid record low turnout
Al Jazeera, 2024-06-29 · supports
“Only 40 percent of more than 61 million eligible Iranians voted, the Ministry of Interior said on Saturday, a new low in presidential elections since the country’s 1979 revolution. ... The lowest presidential turnout in the more than four-decade history of the Islamic republic was the one that got Raisi into office, with 48.8 percent.”
Only 40 percent of more than 61 million eligible Iranians voted, the Ministry of Interior said on Saturday, a new low in presidential elections since the country’s 1979 revolution. ... The lowest presidential turnout in the more than four-decade history of the Islamic republic was the one that got Raisi into office, with 48.8 percent.
- Centrist Masoud Pezeshkian will be Iran’s next president
Al Jazeera, 2024-07-06 · supports
“Pezeshkian acknowledges ‘difficult path ahead’ after winning run-off election with 53.7 percent of the vote ... Participation in the run-off was 49.8 percent in the tight race between Pezeshkian, the sole moderate in an original field of four candidates who has pledged to open Iran to the world, and the former nuclear negotiator Jalili”
Pezeshkian acknowledges ‘difficult path ahead’ after winning run-off election with 53.7 percent of the vote ... Participation in the run-off was 49.8 percent in the tight race between Pezeshkian, the sole moderate in an original field of four candidates who has pledged to open Iran to the world, and the former nuclear negotiator Jalili
- Disqualified Presidential Candidates in Iran Lodge Protests
Iran International, 2024-06-10 · supports
“The Guardian Council, which vets candidates, approved only six out of more than 80 who registered to run. Key figures, including former parliament speaker Ali Larijani and former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, were disqualified.”
The Guardian Council, which vets candidates, approved only six out of more than 80 who registered to run. Key figures, including former parliament speaker Ali Larijani and former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, were disqualified.
- Low turnout as conservatives dominate Iran parliamentary election
Al Jazeera, 2024-03-04 · supports
“The country saw a voter turnout of 41 percent in Friday’s elections for the national legislature and Assembly of Experts, the lowest participation since Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution ... “Around 25 million people participated with a turnout of 41 percent,” Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi said ... The lowest previous turnout was in the parliamentary elections in 2020, which saw a 42 percent turnout during the COVID-19 pandemic. About 62 percent of voters participated in 2016.”
The country saw a voter turnout of 41 percent in Friday’s elections for the national legislature and Assembly of Experts, the lowest participation since Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution ... “Around 25 million people participated with a turnout of 41 percent,” Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi said ... The lowest previous turnout was in the parliamentary elections in 2020, which saw a 42 percent turnout during the COVID-19 pandemic. About 62 percent of voters participated in 2016.
- Death Sentences and Executions 2025 (ACT 50/0778/2026)
Amnesty International, 2026-05 · supports
“Amnesty International recorded 2,707 executions in 2025, an increase by 78% from the 1,518 known executions in 2024. It is the highest figure recorded by Amnesty International since 1981 ... a spike in executions in Iran, where the country total reached at least 2,159, more than doubling the 2024 figure of at least 972; and accounting for 80% of all recorded executions. ... The known totals do not include the thousands of people believed to have been executed in China ... EXECUTIONS RECORDED GLOBALLY IN 2025 Afghanistan (6), China (+), Egypt (23), Iran ( 2,159+), Iraq (+), Japan (1), Kuwait (17), North Korea (+), Saudi Arabia (356+), Singapore (17), Somalia (17+), South Sudan (1), Taiwan (1), United Arab Emirates (UAE, 3), USA (47), Viet Nam (+), Yemen (51+). ... The executions known to have been carried out in Iran and Saudi Arabia accounted for 93% of the total.”
Amnesty International recorded 2,707 executions in 2025, an increase by 78% from the 1,518 known executions in 2024. It is the highest figure recorded by Amnesty International since 1981 ... a spike in executions in Iran, where the country total reached at least 2,159, more than doubling the 2024 figure of at least 972; and accounting for 80% of all recorded executions. ... The known totals do not include the thousands of people believed to have been executed in China ... EXECUTIONS RECORDED GLOBALLY IN 2025 Afghanistan (6), China (+), Egypt (23), Iran ( 2,159+), Iraq (+), Japan (1), Kuwait (17), North Korea (+), Saudi Arabia (356+), Singapore (17), Somalia (17+), South Sudan (1), Taiwan (1), United Arab Emirates (UAE, 3), USA (47), Viet Nam (+), Yemen (51+). ... The executions known to have been carried out in Iran and Saudi Arabia accounted for 93% of the total.
- Global: Recorded executions hit their highest figure since 2015
Amnesty International, 2025-04-08 · supports
“Iran executed 119 more individuals than last year (from at least 853 to at least 972) – accounting for 64% of all known executions.”
Iran executed 119 more individuals than last year (from at least 853 to at least 972) – accounting for 64% of all known executions.
- World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), API
World Bank, 2026-10-08 · supports
“"indicator":{"id":"SP.POP.TOTL","value":"Population, total"} ... "lastupdated":"2026-10-08" ... Iran, Islamic Rep. 2025 92417681 ... Saudi Arabia 2025 36973555 ... Kuwait 2025 4865298 ... Singapore 2025 6111175 ... Yemen, Rep. 2025 41773878 ... Somalia, Fed. Rep. 2025 19654739 ... United Arab Emirates 2025 11513149 ... Egypt, Arab Rep. 2025 118365995 ... United States 2025 341784857 ... Afghanistan 2025 43844111 ... South Sudan 2025 12188788 ... Japan 2025 123366734”
"indicator":{"id":"SP.POP.TOTL","value":"Population, total"} ... "lastupdated":"2026-10-08" ... Iran, Islamic Rep. 2025 92417681 ... Saudi Arabia 2025 36973555 ... Kuwait 2025 4865298 ... Singapore 2025 6111175 ... Yemen, Rep. 2025 41773878 ... Somalia, Fed. Rep. 2025 19654739 ... United Arab Emirates 2025 11513149 ... Egypt, Arab Rep. 2025 118365995 ... United States 2025 341784857 ... Afghanistan 2025 43844111 ... South Sudan 2025 12188788 ... Japan 2025 123366734
- IAEA Director General report on Iran, GOV/2026/50
International Atomic Energy Agency, 2026-09-01 · supports
“On 28 February 2026, the United States of America and Israel launched further military attacks on Iran, including on the sites of some nuclear facilities. Consequently, the Agency stopped conducting verification activities in Iran.”
On 28 February 2026, the United States of America and Israel launched further military attacks on Iran, including on the sites of some nuclear facilities. Consequently, the Agency stopped conducting verification activities in Iran.
- Iran Update Special Report, July 13, 2026
Institute for the Study of War and AEI's Critical Threats Project, 2026-07-13 · supports
“Iran has continuously made efforts to reconstitute its ballistic missile and drone programs since the ceasefire on April 8. ... The United States will resume its blockade of Iranian ports beginning on July 14 at 4:00 PM ET.”
Iran has continuously made efforts to reconstitute its ballistic missile and drone programs since the ceasefire on April 8. ... The United States will resume its blockade of Iranian ports beginning on July 14 at 4:00 PM ET.
- Report consistent with the War Powers Resolution (House Document 119-167)
US House of Representatives (letter from the President), 2026-06-29 · supports
“These efforts led to my signing a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran on June 17, 2026.”
These efforts led to my signing a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran on June 17, 2026.
- The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) at a Glance
Arms Control Association, 2025-02 · supports
“January 16, 2016, Implementation Day”
January 16, 2016, Implementation Day
- Timeline of Nuclear Diplomacy With Iran
Arms Control Association, 2023-01 · supports
“May 8, 2018: President Trump announces that he is withdrawing the United States from the JCPOA”
May 8, 2018: President Trump announces that he is withdrawing the United States from the JCPOA
- Iran Presidential Elections, All Provinces (workbook)
Iran Data Portal, Syracuse University, 2017-05 · supports
“Province | no. eligible voters | no. votes | Turnout (percent) ... Iran (total) ... [Turnout (percent), by election:] 1st (1980) 67.42; 2nd (1981) 64.24; 3rd (1981) 74.26; 4th (1985) 54.78; 5th (1989) 54.59; 6th (1993) 50.66; 7th (1997) 79.92; 8th (2001) 66.77; 9th, first round (2005) 62.84; 9th, second round (2005) 59.76; 10th (2009) 85.22; 11th (2013) 76.25”
Province | no. eligible voters | no. votes | Turnout (percent) ... Iran (total) ... [Turnout (percent), by election:] 1st (1980) 67.42; 2nd (1981) 64.24; 3rd (1981) 74.26; 4th (1985) 54.78; 5th (1989) 54.59; 6th (1993) 50.66; 7th (1997) 79.92; 8th (2001) 66.77; 9th, first round (2005) 62.84; 9th, second round (2005) 59.76; 10th (2009) 85.22; 11th (2013) 76.25
- Presidential Elections in Iran: Number of Candidates Registered and Allowed to Run (infographic)
Iran Data Portal, Syracuse University, 2017-04 · supports
“Presidential Elections in Iran Number of Candidates Registered and Allowed to Run ... 1st 1980 124 ... 2nd 1981 71 ... 3rd 1981 46 ... 4th 1985 50 ... 5th 1989 79 ... 6th 1993 128 ... 7th 1997 238 ... 8th 2001 814 ... 9th 2005 1014 ... 10th 2009 475 ... 11th 2013 686 ... 12th 2017 1636 ... Candidates submitting their candidacy are first vetted by the Ministry of Interior and then by the Guardian Council. ... Number of candidates allowed to run may be different from the number of candidates finally ran.”
Presidential Elections in Iran Number of Candidates Registered and Allowed to Run ... 1st 1980 124 ... 2nd 1981 71 ... 3rd 1981 46 ... 4th 1985 50 ... 5th 1989 79 ... 6th 1993 128 ... 7th 1997 238 ... 8th 2001 814 ... 9th 2005 1014 ... 10th 2009 475 ... 11th 2013 686 ... 12th 2017 1636 ... Candidates submitting their candidacy are first vetted by the Ministry of Interior and then by the Guardian Council. ... Number of candidates allowed to run may be different from the number of candidates finally ran.
- Annual Report on the Death Penalty in Iran 2025
Iran Human Rights (IHRNGO) and ECPM, 2026-04 · supports
“EXECUTION TRENDS IN THE LAST 18 YEARS (2008-2025) [bar labels, 2008 to 2025 in order:] 350 402 546 676 580 687 753 972 530 517 273 280 267 333 582 834 975 1639 ... From IHRNGO’s first annual report in 2008 to 2025, Iranian authorities have executed at least 11,196 people ... At least 1,639 people were executed, marking the highest number of recorded executions since 1989 and a dramatic 68% increase compared to 2024, when 975 executions were recorded. ... With 222 executions, October was the bloodiest month in 2025 ... Only 113 executions (under 7%) were announced by official sources ... 60% of executions took place in the second half of the year. ... Execution numbers tend to increase when authorities fear social unrest and when the attention of the international community is focused on other geopolitical issues. ... A new surge in executions began in the months after the 12-day war between Iran and Israel in June ... Following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi on 19 May 2024, Iran held a presidential election marked by the lowest voter turnout in the history of the Islamic Republic. ... At least 2,292 people have been executed since Masoud Pezeshkian took office in July 2024. By comparison, during the less than three years of Ebrahim Raisi’s presidency (2021–2024), and the 8-year presidential terms of Hassan Rouhani (2013–2021) and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (2005–2013), at least 1,714, 4,249, and 3,337 people were executed, respectively. ... The average number of monthly executions under Pezeshkian reached 135 (more than four executions per day), compared to 51 per month during Raisi’s tenure, 44 under Rouhani, and 35 under Ahmadinejad. ... The 2017 Amendment created hope that it would eventually lead to a complete halt in drug-related executions, and while it did lead to a decline in executions of men and a complete drop in executions of women until 2021, the outcome was not guaranteed. Since 2021, the 2017 Amendment has been reversed in practice, with drug-related executions rising from an average of 26 per year between 2018-2020 to at least 795 in 2025.”
EXECUTION TRENDS IN THE LAST 18 YEARS (2008-2025) [bar labels, 2008 to 2025 in order:] 350 402 546 676 580 687 753 972 530 517 273 280 267 333 582 834 975 1639 ... From IHRNGO’s first annual report in 2008 to 2025, Iranian authorities have executed at least 11,196 people ... At least 1,639 people were executed, marking the highest number of recorded executions since 1989 and a dramatic 68% increase compared to 2024, when 975 executions were recorded. ... With 222 executions, October was the bloodiest month in 2025 ... Only 113 executions (under 7%) were announced by official sources ... 60% of executions took place in the second half of the year. ... Execution numbers tend to increase when authorities fear social unrest and when the attention of the international community is focused on other geopolitical issues. ... A new surge in executions began in the months after the 12-day war between Iran and Israel in June ... Following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi on 19 May 2024, Iran held a presidential election marked by the lowest voter turnout in the history of the Islamic Republic. ... At least 2,292 people have been executed since Masoud Pezeshkian took office in July 2024. By comparison, during the less than three years of Ebrahim Raisi’s presidency (2021–2024), and the 8-year presidential terms of Hassan Rouhani (2013–2021) and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (2005–2013), at least 1,714, 4,249, and 3,337 people were executed, respectively. ... The average number of monthly executions under Pezeshkian reached 135 (more than four executions per day), compared to 51 per month during Raisi’s tenure, 44 under Rouhani, and 35 under Ahmadinejad. ... The 2017 Amendment created hope that it would eventually lead to a complete halt in drug-related executions, and while it did lead to a decline in executions of men and a complete drop in executions of women until 2021, the outcome was not guaranteed. Since 2021, the 2017 Amendment has been reversed in practice, with drug-related executions rising from an average of 26 per year between 2018-2020 to at least 795 in 2025.
- Annual Report on Execution in Iran 2025–2026
HRANA (Human Rights Activists in Iran Statistics Center), 2026-10-09 · supports
“Ten-Year Trend of Executions in Iran (2016–2026) ... executions declined from 505 in 2016–2017 to 238 in 2018–2019. The number then increased each year from 2019–2020 onward, reaching 2,003 in 2025–2026, the highest total recorded across these ten reporting periods. ... 2025-2026 2,003 2024-2025 1,553 2023-2024 823 2022-2023 664 2021-2022 528 2020-2021 272 2019-2020 249 2018-2019 238 2017-2018 265 2016-2017 505”
Ten-Year Trend of Executions in Iran (2016–2026) ... executions declined from 505 in 2016–2017 to 238 in 2018–2019. The number then increased each year from 2019–2020 onward, reaching 2,003 in 2025–2026, the highest total recorded across these ten reporting periods. ... 2025-2026 2,003 2024-2025 1,553 2023-2024 823 2022-2023 664 2021-2022 528 2020-2021 272 2019-2020 249 2018-2019 238 2017-2018 265 2016-2017 505
- Annual Report on Execution in Iran 2025–2026 (monthly chart and political executions by month)
HRANA (Human Rights Activists in Iran Statistics Center), 2026-10-09 · supports
“the highest number of executions was recorded in December 2025, while the lowest full-month total was recorded in March 2026. The figures for October 2025 and October 2026, which cover only the last 22 days and the first seven days of those months respectively, are not representative of a full month. [Monthly chart labels, October 2025 to October 2026:] 200 324 404 334 282 10 30 73 114 73 85 69 5 ... Political and security-related executions 69 ... ◄ 35 people (51% of all political and security-related executions) were executed in connection with the January 2026 (Dey 1404) protests. ◄ 29 people were executed in April (14) and May 2026 (15) alone, the peak of executions during this period. ... By Month of Execution Month Number October 2025 1 November 2025 0 December 2025 1 January 2026 4 February 2026 0 March 2026 8 April 2026 14 May 2026 15 June 2026 5 July 2026 9 August 2026 6 September 2026 3 October 2026 3 Total 69”
the highest number of executions was recorded in December 2025, while the lowest full-month total was recorded in March 2026. The figures for October 2025 and October 2026, which cover only the last 22 days and the first seven days of those months respectively, are not representative of a full month. [Monthly chart labels, October 2025 to October 2026:] 200 324 404 334 282 10 30 73 114 73 85 69 5 ... Political and security-related executions 69 ... ◄ 35 people (51% of all political and security-related executions) were executed in connection with the January 2026 (Dey 1404) protests. ◄ 29 people were executed in April (14) and May 2026 (15) alone, the peak of executions during this period. ... By Month of Execution Month Number October 2025 1 November 2025 0 December 2025 1 January 2026 4 February 2026 0 March 2026 8 April 2026 14 May 2026 15 June 2026 5 July 2026 9 August 2026 6 September 2026 3 October 2026 3 Total 69
- World Development Indicators: GDP growth (annual %), Iran (API)
World Bank, 2026-10-08 · supports
“"indicator":{"id":"NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG","value":"GDP growth (annual %)"}, "country":{"id":"IR","value":"Iran, Islamic Rep."} ... "lastupdated":"2026-10-08" ... "date":"2025","value":-2.82597163290347 ... "date":"2016","value":8.8150866425182”
"indicator":{"id":"NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG","value":"GDP growth (annual %)"}, "country":{"id":"IR","value":"Iran, Islamic Rep."} ... "lastupdated":"2026-10-08" ... "date":"2025","value":-2.82597163290347 ... "date":"2016","value":8.8150866425182
- World Development Indicators: Inflation, consumer prices (annual %), Iran (API)
World Bank, 2026-10-08 · supports
“"indicator":{"id":"FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG","value":"Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)"},"country":{"id":"IR","value":"Iran, Islamic Rep."} ... "lastupdated":"2026-10-08" ... "date":"2025","value":42.1712244965444”
"indicator":{"id":"FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG","value":"Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)"},"country":{"id":"IR","value":"Iran, Islamic Rep."} ... "lastupdated":"2026-10-08" ... "date":"2025","value":42.1712244965444
Oil, Shipping and Prices, 1974–2026
- Europe Brent Spot Price FOB, daily (RBRTE)
US Energy Information Administration, 2026-10-28 · supports
“Europe Brent Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel) … 2026 Feb-23 to Feb-27 71.90 71.21 70.69 71.66 71.32 … 2026 Apr- 6 to Apr-10 138.21 122.11 119.03 119.07 … 2026 Sep-28 to Oct- 2 119.97 113.96 115.91 114.82 135.51 … 2026 Oct-26 to Oct-30 128.12 123.10 … 2008 Jun-30 to Jul- 4 138.40 140.67 141.24 143.95 … 2022 Mar- 7 to Mar-11 129.02 133.18 116.58 114.54 118.11 … Release Date: 10/28/2026”
Europe Brent Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel) … 2026 Feb-23 to Feb-27 71.90 71.21 70.69 71.66 71.32 … 2026 Apr- 6 to Apr-10 138.21 122.11 119.03 119.07 … 2026 Sep-28 to Oct- 2 119.97 113.96 115.91 114.82 135.51 … 2026 Oct-26 to Oct-30 128.12 123.10 … 2008 Jun-30 to Jul- 4 138.40 140.67 141.24 143.95 … 2022 Mar- 7 to Mar-11 129.02 133.18 116.58 114.54 118.11 … Release Date: 10/28/2026
- Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB, daily (RWTC)
US Energy Information Administration, 2026-10-28 · supports
“Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel) … 2026 Feb-23 to Feb-27 66.36 65.62 65.30 65.10 66.96 … 2026 Apr- 6 to Apr-10 114.01 114.58 96.17 99.62 98.34 … 2026 Oct-26 to Oct-30 105.25 103.37 … 2008 Jun-30 to Jul- 4 139.96 141.06 143.74 145.31 … Release Date: 10/28/2026”
Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel) … 2026 Feb-23 to Feb-27 66.36 65.62 65.30 65.10 66.96 … 2026 Apr- 6 to Apr-10 114.01 114.58 96.17 99.62 98.34 … 2026 Oct-26 to Oct-30 105.25 103.37 … 2008 Jun-30 to Jul- 4 139.96 141.06 143.74 145.31 … Release Date: 10/28/2026
- Weekly U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices
US Energy Information Administration, 2026-10-27 · supports
“Weekly U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices (Dollars per Gallon) … 2026-Feb 02/02 2.867 02/09 2.902 02/16 2.924 02/23 2.937 … 2026-May 05/04 4.452 05/11 4.500 05/18 4.490 05/25 4.475 … 2026-Oct 10/05 4.354 10/12 4.331 10/19 4.284 10/26 4.269 … 2022-Jun 06/06 4.876 06/13 5.006 06/20 4.962 06/27 4.872 … Release Date: 10/27/2026”
Weekly U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices (Dollars per Gallon) … 2026-Feb 02/02 2.867 02/09 2.902 02/16 2.924 02/23 2.937 … 2026-May 05/04 4.452 05/11 4.500 05/18 4.490 05/25 4.475 … 2026-Oct 10/05 4.354 10/12 4.331 10/19 4.284 10/26 4.269 … 2022-Jun 06/06 4.876 06/13 5.006 06/20 4.962 06/27 4.872 … Release Date: 10/27/2026
- Consumer Price Index Summary - 2026 M09 Results (archived 24 October 2026)
US Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026-10-14 · supports
“The all items index rose 3.7 percent for the 12 months ending September, a larger increase than the 3.4-percent increase reported for the 12 months ending in August. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.6 percent over the year... The energy index increased 20.4 percent for the 12 months ending September. … The index for energy increased 20.4 percent over the past 12 months due in large part to the index for gasoline rising 34.2 percent over the same period. … The index for gasoline rose 9.1 percent in September, accounting for over half of the monthly all items increase.”
The all items index rose 3.7 percent for the 12 months ending September, a larger increase than the 3.4-percent increase reported for the 12 months ending in August. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.6 percent over the year... The energy index increased 20.4 percent for the 12 months ending September. … The index for energy increased 20.4 percent over the past 12 months due in large part to the index for gasoline rising 34.2 percent over the same period. … The index for gasoline rose 9.1 percent in September, accounting for over half of the monthly all items increase.
- Costs of the Armed Conflict With Iran (letter, 15 September 2026; archived 1 October 2026)
Congressional Budget Office, 2026-09-15 · supports
“in the first quarter of 2027, inflation (measured year over year) in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is now estimated to be 0.5 percentage points higher than the agency projected in February 2026, and core PCE inflation is estimated to be 0.3 percentage points higher”
in the first quarter of 2027, inflation (measured year over year) in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is now estimated to be 0.5 percentage points higher than the agency projected in February 2026, and core PCE inflation is estimated to be 0.3 percentage points higher
- Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 2026-09-16 · complicates
“The Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent... While uncertainty remains elevated owing, in part, to geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient.”
The Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent... While uncertainty remains elevated owing, in part, to geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient.
- Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026: Global oil markets
US Energy Information Administration, 2026-10-06 · supports
“We assess that crude oil production shut-ins averaged 4.8 million b/d in September, down from 5.8 million b/d in August and down from 10.9 million b/d at the peak in May. We forecast the Brent crude oil spot price will average $105/b in the fourth quarter of 2026 (4Q26), $14/b higher than in last month's STEO.”
We assess that crude oil production shut-ins averaged 4.8 million b/d in September, down from 5.8 million b/d in August and down from 10.9 million b/d at the peak in May. We forecast the Brent crude oil spot price will average $105/b in the fourth quarter of 2026 (4Q26), $14/b higher than in last month's STEO.
- Amid regional conflict, the Strait of Hormuz remains critical oil chokepoint
US Energy Information Administration, 2025-06-16 · supports
“In 2024, oil flow through the strait averaged 20 million barrels per day (b/d), or the equivalent of about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption.”
In 2024, oil flow through the strait averaged 20 million barrels per day (b/d), or the equivalent of about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption.
- U.S. Central Command Media: Official Photos and Videos (captions, April–May 2026)
US Central Command, 2026-05-20 · supports
“The Marines rappelled onto the Iranian-flagged vessel, April 19, after guided-missile destroyer USS Spruance (DDG 111) disabled Touska’s propulsion when the commercial ship failed to comply with repeated warnings from U.S. forces over a six-hour period. … U.S. Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit boarded M/T Celestial Sea, an Iranian-flagged commercial oil tanker suspected of attempting to violate the U.S. blockade by transiting toward an Iranian port, May 20, in the Gulf of Oman. … U.S. forces continue to fully enforce the blockade and have now redirected 91 commercial ships to ensure compliance.”
The Marines rappelled onto the Iranian-flagged vessel, April 19, after guided-missile destroyer USS Spruance (DDG 111) disabled Touska’s propulsion when the commercial ship failed to comply with repeated warnings from U.S. forces over a six-hour period. … U.S. Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit boarded M/T Celestial Sea, an Iranian-flagged commercial oil tanker suspected of attempting to violate the U.S. blockade by transiting toward an Iranian port, May 20, in the Gulf of Oman. … U.S. forces continue to fully enforce the blockade and have now redirected 91 commercial ships to ensure compliance.
- CENTCOM Maintains Strict Enforcement of U.S. Blockade Against Iran
US Central Command, 2026-10-05 · supports
“On Oct. 5, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces redirected the 130th commercial vessel in the Middle East during strict enforcement of the ongoing U.S. naval blockade against Iran. CENTCOM forces resumed the blockade against ships attempting to enter or depart Iranian ports July 14 at the Commander in Chief's direction. In addition to redirecting 130 vessels, American forces have disabled three ships that refused to comply. Over the past 12 weeks, CENTCOM has destroyed 13 commercial vessels that were violating the blockade or part of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' multibillion-dollar shadow network.”
On Oct. 5, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces redirected the 130th commercial vessel in the Middle East during strict enforcement of the ongoing U.S. naval blockade against Iran. CENTCOM forces resumed the blockade against ships attempting to enter or depart Iranian ports July 14 at the Commander in Chief's direction. In addition to redirecting 130 vessels, American forces have disabled three ships that refused to comply. Over the past 12 weeks, CENTCOM has destroyed 13 commercial vessels that were violating the blockade or part of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' multibillion-dollar shadow network.
- U.S. Forces Disable Cargo Vessel Attempting to Violate Blockade
US Central Command, 2026-10-10 · supports
“CENTCOM forces resumed America’s blockade against all ships entering or departing Iranian ports on July 14. Four commercial vessels have been disabled and 135 ships have been turned around during three months of strict enforcement. Additionally, U.S. forces have destroyed 10 tankers linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' multibillion-dollar shadow network over the same period.”
CENTCOM forces resumed America’s blockade against all ships entering or departing Iranian ports on July 14. Four commercial vessels have been disabled and 135 ships have been turned around during three months of strict enforcement. Additionally, U.S. forces have destroyed 10 tankers linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' multibillion-dollar shadow network over the same period.
- CENTCOM Commander Visits Strait of Hormuz during Milestone Week
US Central Command, 2026-10-25 · complicates
“The commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) visited the Strait of Hormuz, Oct. 25, as U.S. forces reach the milestone of assisting Gulf partners in exporting more than 1.5 billion barrels of crude oil since summer. … More than 3,000 commercial vessels have successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz with support from CENTCOM forces over the last six months. … In recent months, over 95% of ships navigating the Strait of Hormuz have sailed through safely despite the IRGC's unwarranted aggression”
The commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) visited the Strait of Hormuz, Oct. 25, as U.S. forces reach the milestone of assisting Gulf partners in exporting more than 1.5 billion barrels of crude oil since summer. … More than 3,000 commercial vessels have successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz with support from CENTCOM forces over the last six months. … In recent months, over 95% of ships navigating the Strait of Hormuz have sailed through safely despite the IRGC's unwarranted aggression
- Iran Update, October 21, 2026
Institute for the Study of War and AEI Critical Threats Project, 2026-10-21 · complicates
“Several shipping and maritime security officials told Bloomberg on October 20 that at least five of the 23 recorded attacks on vessels in or near the Strait of Hormuz in the first two weeks of October struck commercial vessels' engine rooms. … The Washington Post, citing oil price-tracking firm Kpler, reported that the number of barrels of oil exported per day is approaching prewar daily averages after increasing from mid-August to late September.”
Several shipping and maritime security officials told Bloomberg on October 20 that at least five of the 23 recorded attacks on vessels in or near the Strait of Hormuz in the first two weeks of October struck commercial vessels' engine rooms. … The Washington Post, citing oil price-tracking firm Kpler, reported that the number of barrels of oil exported per day is approaching prewar daily averages after increasing from mid-August to late September.
- Iran oil exports feel the squeeze, hitting a six-year low (Reuters)
Reuters (via Baird Maritime), 2026-06-04 · supports
“The US began enforcing the blockade on April 13, choking Iranian exports as the oil market faces a supply crunch due to Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz cutting exports from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates. Iran's exports averaged about 209,000 bpd in May, Vortexa data shows, down sharply from 1.34 million bpd in April and nearly 1.9 million bpd in March. This marks their lowest level since late 2019 and early 2020”
The US began enforcing the blockade on April 13, choking Iranian exports as the oil market faces a supply crunch due to Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz cutting exports from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates. Iran's exports averaged about 209,000 bpd in May, Vortexa data shows, down sharply from 1.34 million bpd in April and nearly 1.9 million bpd in March. This marks their lowest level since late 2019 and early 2020
- Strait of Hormuz: Tanker War
Robert Strauss Center for International Security and Law, University of Texas at Austin, 2026-10 · complicates
“61 percent of the ships attacked during the Tanker War were oil tankers. In total, only 55 of the 239 petroleum tankers (23 percent) were completely sunk or declared CTL … Initially, the Tanker War led to a 25 percent drop in commercial shipping and a sharp rise in the price of crude oil. But the Tanker War did not significantly disrupt oil shipments. In fact, Iran lowered the price of oil to offset higher insurance premiums on shipments, and the real global oil price steadily declined during the 1980s. Even at the its most intense point, the Tanker War failed to disrupt more than two percent of ships passing through the Persian Gulf.”
61 percent of the ships attacked during the Tanker War were oil tankers. In total, only 55 of the 239 petroleum tankers (23 percent) were completely sunk or declared CTL … Initially, the Tanker War led to a 25 percent drop in commercial shipping and a sharp rise in the price of crude oil. But the Tanker War did not significantly disrupt oil shipments. In fact, Iran lowered the price of oil to offset higher insurance premiums on shipments, and the real global oil price steadily declined during the 1980s. Even at the its most intense point, the Tanker War failed to disrupt more than two percent of ships passing through the Persian Gulf.
- At least 7,650 killed in 40 days of war, including 1,030 civilians — Hengaw’s tenth report
Hengaw Organization for Human Rights, 2026-04-08 · supports
“The war began on the morning of Saturday, February 28, 2026, with airstrikes by U.S. and Israeli forces targeting more than 10 provinces across Iran”
The war began on the morning of Saturday, February 28, 2026, with airstrikes by U.S. and Israeli forces targeting more than 10 provinces across Iran
- Iran Update Special Report, July 13, 2026
Institute for the Study of War and AEI Critical Threats Project, 2026-07-13 · supports
“Iran has continuously made efforts to reconstitute its ballistic missile and drone programs since the ceasefire on April 8. … The United States will resume its blockade of Iranian ports beginning on July 14 at 4:00 PM ET. … The US naval blockade had a limited but notable effect on Iranian willingness to continue fighting in Spring 2026 and was critical to securing the MoU.”
Iran has continuously made efforts to reconstitute its ballistic missile and drone programs since the ceasefire on April 8. … The United States will resume its blockade of Iranian ports beginning on July 14 at 4:00 PM ET. … The US naval blockade had a limited but notable effect on Iranian willingness to continue fighting in Spring 2026 and was critical to securing the MoU.
- War Powers report to Congress (House Document 119-167)
The White House (via GovInfo), 2026-06-29 · supports
“These efforts led to my signing a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran on June 17, 2026.”
These efforts led to my signing a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran on June 17, 2026.
- War Powers report to Congress (House Document 119-193)
The White House (via GovInfo), 2026-09-03 · supports
“military action commenced on September 1, 2026, against the Islamic Republic of Iran … oil tankers belonging to the National Iranian Oil Company”
military action commenced on September 1, 2026, against the Islamic Republic of Iran … oil tankers belonging to the National Iranian Oil Company
- Trump says US will not resume military strikes on Iran before midterm elections
Associated Press (via WCAX), 2026-10-08 · supports
“But Trump in a social media post on Thursday said the U.S. "will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd."”
But Trump in a social media post on Thursday said the U.S. "will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd."
- Europe Brent Spot Price FOB, monthly (RBRTE)
US Energy Information Administration, 2026-10-28 · supports
“Europe Brent Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel) … 1987 18.58 18.86 19.86 18.98 18.31 18.76 17.78 17.05 … 2008 92.18 94.99 103.64 109.07 122.80 132.32 132.72 113.24 97.23 71.58 52.45 39.95 … 2022 86.51 97.13 117.25 104.58 113.34 122.71 111.93 100.45 89.76 93.33 91.42 80.92 … 2026 66.60 70.89 103.13 117.29 107.14 85.40 83.76 91.08 114.16 … Release Date: 10/28/2026”
Europe Brent Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel) … 1987 18.58 18.86 19.86 18.98 18.31 18.76 17.78 17.05 … 2008 92.18 94.99 103.64 109.07 122.80 132.32 132.72 113.24 97.23 71.58 52.45 39.95 … 2022 86.51 97.13 117.25 104.58 113.34 122.71 111.93 100.45 89.76 93.33 91.42 80.92 … 2026 66.60 70.89 103.13 117.29 107.14 85.40 83.76 91.08 114.16 … Release Date: 10/28/2026
- Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB, monthly (RWTC)
US Energy Information Administration, 2026-10-28 · supports
“Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel) … 1986 22.93 15.46 12.61 12.84 15.38 13.43 11.59 15.10 14.87 14.90 15.22 16.11 … 2008 92.97 95.39 105.45 112.58 125.40 133.88 133.37 116.67 104.11 76.61 57.31 41.12 … 2026 60.04 64.51 91.38 100.32 102.13 84.81 80.46 83.90 97.31 … Release Date: 10/28/2026”
Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel) … 1986 22.93 15.46 12.61 12.84 15.38 13.43 11.59 15.10 14.87 14.90 15.22 16.11 … 2008 92.97 95.39 105.45 112.58 125.40 133.88 133.37 116.67 104.11 76.61 57.31 41.12 … 2026 60.04 64.51 91.38 100.32 102.13 84.81 80.46 83.90 97.31 … Release Date: 10/28/2026
- Real Prices Viewer: Monthly Average Imported Crude Oil Price (real_prices.xlsx, sheet "Crude Oil-M")
US Energy Information Administration, 2026-10-06 · supports
“EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, … Monthly Average Imported Crude Oil Price … Consumer Price Index (1982-84=1) … Imported Crude Oil Price ($/barrel) … Nominal … Real … Forecast Values … May 2026 3.340 99.01 98.85 0 … Base CPI (10/2026) … Data Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 … Forecast / estimated values shown in blue … real price (Oct 2026 $)”
EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, … Monthly Average Imported Crude Oil Price … Consumer Price Index (1982-84=1) … Imported Crude Oil Price ($/barrel) … Nominal … Real … Forecast Values … May 2026 3.340 99.01 98.85 0 … Base CPI (10/2026) … Data Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 … Forecast / estimated values shown in blue … real price (Oct 2026 $)
- U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices, monthly
US Energy Information Administration, 2026-10-27 · supports
“U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices (Dollars per Gallon) … 1990 NA 1.258 1.335 1.324 NA … 2022 3.315 3.517 4.222 4.109 4.444 4.929 4.559 3.975 3.700 3.815 3.685 3.210 … 2026 2.809 2.908 3.638 4.103 4.479 4.050 3.932 4.058 4.355 4.310 … Release Date: 10/27/2026”
U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices (Dollars per Gallon) … 1990 NA 1.258 1.335 1.324 NA … 2022 3.315 3.517 4.222 4.109 4.444 4.929 4.559 3.975 3.700 3.815 3.685 3.210 … 2026 2.809 2.908 3.638 4.103 4.479 4.050 3.932 4.058 4.355 4.310 … Release Date: 10/27/2026
- PortWatch Daily Chokepoints Data (Strait of Hormuz, portid chokepoint6), queried 29 October 2026
IMF PortWatch, 2026-10-28 · supports
“{"attributes":{"date":"2019-01-01","year":2019,"month":1,"day":1,"n_total":52,"n_tanker":33} … {"attributes":{"date":"2026-02-28","year":2026,"month":2,"day":28,"n_total":57,"n_tanker":36} … {"attributes":{"date":"2026-03-04","year":2026,"month":3,"day":4,"n_total":0,"n_tanker":0} … {"attributes":{"date":"2026-06-24","year":2026,"month":6,"day":24,"n_total":51,"n_tanker":20} … {"attributes":{"date":"2026-10-25","year":2026,"month":10,"day":25,"n_total":2,"n_tanker":1}”
{"attributes":{"date":"2019-01-01","year":2019,"month":1,"day":1,"n_total":52,"n_tanker":33} … {"attributes":{"date":"2026-02-28","year":2026,"month":2,"day":28,"n_total":57,"n_tanker":36} … {"attributes":{"date":"2026-03-04","year":2026,"month":3,"day":4,"n_total":0,"n_tanker":0} … {"attributes":{"date":"2026-06-24","year":2026,"month":6,"day":24,"n_total":51,"n_tanker":20} … {"attributes":{"date":"2026-10-25","year":2026,"month":10,"day":25,"n_total":2,"n_tanker":1}
- Short-Term Energy Outlook: Global Energy Security Data, Table 4
US Energy Information Administration, 2026-08-12 · supports
“Table 4. Volume of crude oil, condensate, petroleum products, and liquefied natural gas transported through the Strait of Hormuz, 1Q25–2Q26 million barrels per day 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26 Total oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz 20.9 21.0 21.3 21.6 14.9 4.9 Crude oil and condensate 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.9 10.9 3.7 Petroleum products 6.2 6.2 6.3 5.7 4.0 1.1 LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz (billion cubic feet per day) 11.7 11.0 10.9 10.5 7.4 0.8 … Since the end of February 2026, AIS signal data for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz have become especially unreliable. For 2026 Hormuz volumes, tanker tracking data are being revised frequently based on the best available information.”
Table 4. Volume of crude oil, condensate, petroleum products, and liquefied natural gas transported through the Strait of Hormuz, 1Q25–2Q26 million barrels per day 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26 Total oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz 20.9 21.0 21.3 21.6 14.9 4.9 Crude oil and condensate 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.9 10.9 3.7 Petroleum products 6.2 6.2 6.3 5.7 4.0 1.1 LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz (billion cubic feet per day) 11.7 11.0 10.9 10.5 7.4 0.8 … Since the end of February 2026, AIS signal data for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz have become especially unreliable. For 2026 Hormuz volumes, tanker tracking data are being revised frequently based on the best available information.