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Voter ID and citizenship checks in the US

Last updated 2026-10-29

Viewpoints

Voters should prove who they are, and that they are citizens

An election should be decided by the people allowed to vote, each voting once. That needs a check before the ballot goes in, because a secret ballot cannot be taken back out. That is what verifiably honest elections means.

Step 1

Fraud at the polls has happened, and ID checks are meant to stop it

Party machines in Kansas City and Chicago ran large frauds, and hundreds were convicted. Some of it was what an ID check stops: people voted several times, or in other people's names. The bipartisan Carter–Baker commission said good ID could deter it.

While most fraud on record was done by officials or by mail, that is a reason to guard those routes too, not to leave the polls open. And the cases on record are only those that were caught.

Step 2

Citizenship is the most basic rule, and the least checked

Only citizens may vote. Every state that has checked its voter list has found non-citizens on it, and Ohio has found them in every batch it has checked since 2019. Yet the federal registration form asks people only to swear that they are citizens.

Most got there through mistakes at registration. Those are failures of the check at registration, so that is where to fix them.

Step 3

Even a few illegal votes matter

While non-citizens' votes are far fewer than the margins in recent close races, and those found are hundredths of a percent of voters or fewer, that does not make them harmless. Some local races are decided by a handful of votes. And checks find only non-citizens who show up in some government record, so others may go unseen. A rule that is broken rarely still has to be enforced.

Step 4

Checking ID costs voters little

Very few citizens have no photo ID at all; many more just have a licence with an old address. The largest national study found strict ID laws did not lower registration or turnout, for any group. Northern Ireland brought in ID after organised voting in other people's names, and turnout did not fall once it required photo ID.

Step 5

Most Americans, and the Supreme Court, back the check

Large majorities in both parties support photo ID, as do at least seven in ten people in every racial group Pew reports. Requiring proof of citizenship to register is just as popular. The Supreme Court upheld Indiana's ID law because preventing fraud and keeping public trust were good reasons.

While two national studies found that ID laws do not raise trust in elections, another found that strict ID did raise trust in state elections.

Step 6

The check must be done the right way

Kansas demanded documents from every new applicant and blocked 31,089 people, while finding at most 39 non-citizens on its rolls. That is the model to avoid, now that checking a whole voter list against records is routine.

States should ask for photo ID, free to anyone without one, as in Georgia, and check citizenship against records, with documents only if those fail. Rules should mean what they say: a citizenship rule never checked is a rule in name only.

These rules keep eligible citizens from voting, to stop fraud that barely exists

Every citizen should have an equal voice. A rule that makes voting harder for some citizens must prevent enough harm to be worth it. Photo-ID and proof-of-citizenship rules prevent almost nothing, and their cost falls on people who can least afford it.

Step 1

ID checks at the polls stop a kind of fraud that almost never happens

An ID check stops one thing: someone voting as another person. Two separate counts find this the rarest kind of fraud on record. When the Supreme Court upheld Indiana's ID law, there was no evidence of such fraud in Indiana's whole history. Britain brought in ID as a precaution, not after a rise in cases.

In 14 of 20 recorded cases, no one voted under a false name. All three recent results thrown out turned on mail or absentee ballots.

Step 2

Voting by non-citizens is rare, and mostly comes from paperwork errors

While every review finds a few non-citizens who voted, the numbers are tiny. The votes found are between about 1 and 22 per million ballots. That is far fewer than the margins in recent close races. And most were added to the list through paperwork errors. Officials can fix those without asking every citizen for a birth certificate.

Step 3

Proof-of-citizenship rules block many citizens

Kansas blocked 31,089 applicants who did not show citizenship documents in time. In 19 years, it found at most 39 non-citizens on its rolls. Even the state's own expert's figures suggested nearly all those blocked were citizens. While the court did not know how many actually lacked a document, every one was kept off the list.

About one adult citizen in ten cannot quickly produce proof of citizenship. Arizona found 218,000 long-time voters who had never had proof on file.

Step 4

Checks run by officials wrongly flag citizens

Most people Alabama flagged as non-citizens in 2024 were citizens. In reviews that followed up, wrongly flagged citizens outnumbered non-citizens found.

Officials have shut people out before: Louisiana cut Black voters from about 44% of registered voters to under 1%, using tests that let registrars decide who could vote. While a free, uniform ID is not a literacy test, bulk checks still sweep up eligible voters. About 90% of Texas mail voters rejected in one primary did not vote otherwise.

Step 5

The cost falls hardest on young, poor, Black and Hispanic voters

The young and poor are most likely to lack an up-to-date licence. Black and Hispanic citizens are about three times as likely as white citizens to have no licence. The worst off should be weighed first.

While the largest study found no overall fall in turnout, it does not rule out larger drops in Kansas and Tennessee, biggest among young, newly registered and Black voters. Campaign contact may have offset some, but a cost they must overcome is still a cost.

Step 6

A sworn promise and careful records checks are enough

Keep the federal form's sworn statement of citizenship, which is a crime to lie on. Check registrations against records, and give voters notice and time to answer. Where states ask for ID, let anyone without it sign a sworn statement instead. Congress should not pass the SAVE America Act, which would require documents proving citizenship.

Clean up the voter lists, instead of making voters prove themselves at the polls

The weak point in American elections is the voter list, not the line at the polls. Cleaning the list stops more fraud than checking ID at the door, and burdens fewer voters.

Step 1

Voter lists always contain people who should not be on them

The only national measure, from 2011 data, found about one record in eight wrong or out of date. Lists always include some people no longer eligible, because removal can take up to two federal election cycles.

While many are eligible voters with an old address, and stale records are not votes, old names are what fraud has used. Chicago's 1982 fraud cast ballots in the names of people who had died or moved.

Step 2

An ID check would not have stopped that fraud

In Chicago, election judges took part in the fraud, and they are the people who would have checked ID. Taking a dead voter's name off the list stops the fraud, whoever is checking.

Step 3

Non-citizens show up in government records, not at the polls

Non-citizens get onto the lists mostly through clerks' errors, wrong licence records and confusion about the rules. The records that reveal them are government files, such as a licence issued to a green-card holder. A poll worker never sees these.

Checking a whole state's voter list against federal records is now routine. Georgia held back applicants it could not verify. ERIC, a data-sharing group of states, has sent members millions of leads on voters who moved away.

Step 4

Matching must be careful, because it also flags eligible voters

Every large matching program has flagged eligible voters. The new federal citizenship database, SAVE, has no published error rate. Texas sent out its SAVE list without checking its own licence records, which would have cleared some citizens.

The biggest way people are removed is also the least certain. Removal after an unanswered notice and two missed federal elections shows silence, not a move. In Ohio, more of those who replied said they had not moved than said they had.

Step 5

States should clean their lists early, openly, and with time to answer

States should check their own records before writing to anyone. They should finish large clean-ups early, because federal law bars them in the 90 days before a federal election, and courts have stopped late ones. They should publish each program's error rate. And they should give flagged voters time and a simple way to answer.

Step 6

More states should share data, so matches can be found

Nine Republican-led states left ERIC in 2022 and 2023, and its reports of voters moving between states fell as members left. A match needs both states as members. A state that wants clean lists should rejoin ERIC, or build an equally wide match.

Honest elections that can be checked depend on knowing who is on the list, and rules should mean what they say for those who keep it. Eligible citizens should not have to re-prove what the state already knows.

Require ID and guarantee easy voting, so both sides trust the result

Democracy works only if the losing side accepts defeat and waits for the next election. It will do that only if it trusts the result. That is why results the losers can accept matter more than any one rule.

Step 1

Americans are losing trust in election results

Trust in the national count now follows the party in power, and the gap between the parties hit a record in 2024. After each presidential election, the winning side grows more confident and the losing side less. The share of Americans with no confidence at all has roughly tripled in 20 years.

Step 2

Each side fears a different problem, but both care about both

Republicans increasingly worry that ineligible people will vote. Democrats doubt that every eligible voter will be able to vote. Yet about nine in ten Americans say both goals matter. A rule that answers one fear and ignores the other gives half the country a reason to reject a defeat.

Step 3

Rules passed by one side lower the other side's trust

In Georgia, most Republicans said the 2021 election law raised their trust, while the largest group of Democrats said it lowered theirs. Voters trust results less when they oppose the rules used, especially for voter ID.

Each party's national bill would do the same on a bigger scale. One would require ID and proof of citizenship. The other would have required early voting and limited which ID states could ask for. Both stalled in the Senate.

Step 4

Most voters already back both halves of a deal

Large majorities in both parties support photo ID, and Democratic support has grown since 2021–22. Republican support for two weeks of early voting rose in 2025. While no poll publishes how many people back both, both shares are so high that most people must.

A commission led by Democrat Jimmy Carter and Republican James Baker paired photo ID with free cards. Carter called Georgia's 2005 law a poll tax because voters had to pay. Georgia now gives the card free.

Step 5

Most of the pieces are already in place

Eight of the 10 strict photo-ID states also let everyone vote early, though two offer no early voting. Canada shows a fallback: a voter without ID may vote if a voter from the same polling place vouches for them.

How an ID rule is written matters. Georgia's rejected mail ballots fell after it replaced signature checks with an ID number. But Texas's rule, which had to match an old registration record, made rejections rise.

Step 6

Both parties should pass free ID and early voting together

Congress, or states one by one, should pass the two together: free photo ID, at least two weeks of early voting, and a sworn statement for those without ID.

While no rule ends the boost in trust from winning, as Georgia shows, and studies disagree on whether ID itself raises trust, the aim is narrower: to remove the losers' complaint about unfair rules. Passed by both parties, this gives every citizen an equal voice and a result both sides can accept.

Election rules belong to the states, and presidents have no say in them

The Constitution settles who writes election rules. Each state's voters should choose their own ID and registration rules, and presidents should stay out.

Step 1

The Constitution gives election rules to the states and Congress, not the President

Each state's legislature decides when, where and how congressional elections are run, and Congress may change those rules. The President has no power to set them by order. Who may vote is for the states to decide.

This keeps decisions close to the people who live with them. If a state's voters dislike its ID rule, they can elect lawmakers who will change it. That is democratic consent at the level where it counts most.

Step 2

Presidents should have no part in setting election rules

Two federal courts ruled that the 2025 order's proof-of-citizenship rule goes beyond a president's power. That is right, whatever one thinks of proof of citizenship. A rule one president can impose by order, the next can cancel.

While the Supreme Court let the 2026 order's citizenship lists go ahead, it did so because states do not have to use them, and it did not rule on the order's lawfulness. If states can ignore the lists, the choice stays theirs.

Step 3

States choose differently, and a mistake stays in one state

States differ on whether ID must have a photo, and on what happens to a voter without one. Voter ID began in South Carolina in 1950, and states led by both parties had adopted it by 2000. A bad rule in one state stays in that state. And state courts can review it under the state's own constitution.

Step 4

National bills from either party would take away the states' choice

The Republican bill would require ID and proof of citizenship. The Democratic one would have required early voting and limited which ID states could ask for. Both stalled because they could not get 60 votes in the Senate. Either would force one side's choice on every state, and the next majority would force its own.

Step 5

Congress should protect the right to vote, and leave the details to the states

Some national minimum rules Congress has set since 1965 were plainly needed: Black registration in the Deep South barely grew before the Voting Rights Act.

While the Supreme Court calls Congress's power "paramount", it has used it only for a few such rules. They leave ID and citizenship checks to each state, apart from a narrow ID rule for first-time mail registrants. Congress should keep to protecting the right to vote, and each state's voters should decide the rest.

Data

Voter ID and Citizenship-Proof Rules in the US and Other Democracies

Most US states now ask voters for ID, increasingly photo ID, and proof-of-citizenship laws are spreading; most G7 democracies also check ID, though of recent adopters only Northern Ireland acted after documented fraud.

Chart 1

Thirty-six states now ask for ID, up from 13 in 2000

The count has nearly tripled since 2000, and the chart marks Wyoming's first law in 2021. Most of the change was laws being added or tightened rather than loosened: of 21 states that began with non-photo, non-strict laws, nine had made them stricter by 2021; only Texas and Virginia had eased theirs.

Voter ID began in 1950, and states under both parties had adopted it by 2000

South Carolina first asked voters for a document in 1950; Hawaii, Texas, Florida and Alaska followed by 1980. The states with ID rules by 2000 "had Democratic and Republican majorities". Since then, NCSL says, "virtually all" bills to add or tighten ID have come from Republican-led states.

Adoption sped up in 2011–2013, then levelled off

NCSL dates the acceleration to 2011, 2012 and 2013, when states without ID adopted it and others tightened theirs. On the chart, that is the steep climb from 2010 to 2014; the count has barely moved since.

Courts have repeatedly kept passed laws out of force

The count of laws passed has run ahead of the count in force: 34 states had passed ID laws in October 2014 but 32 were in force. The chart marks two court blocks, Wisconsin's in 2014 and North Carolina's in 2020.

Chart 2

Photo ID has replaced non-photo ID, and strict photo laws grew from two to ten

In 2009 photo-ID states were a minority, and only Georgia and Indiana made voters without ID return later. By 2026 photo-ID states outnumber non-photo ones two to one. The chart marks the latest moves; Louisiana's, which takes effect in 2027, will make it the 11th strict photo state, NCSL says.

The strict-photo count has gone down as well as up

NCSL's strict list included Texas and Arkansas in 2014 but shrank by 2020 as courts and legislatures eased laws, including Texas's and Virginia's. It then grew again: Arkansas and Missouri were back by 2022, North Carolina and Ohio joined by 2024 and New Hampshire by 2026, while Missouri left again.

Chart 3

State rules differ along two lines: photo or not, and what happens without ID

The two lines cut across each other, so every combination exists, and the states that ask for no document check voters in other ways, most often by signature. The rules keep changing: NCSL's change log lists several changes in 2026 alone, two of them marked on the photo-ID chart above.

Even strict states have exceptions and some offer free ID

Some strict states make room for voters who cannot easily get ID:

  • Georgia accepts a "free voter ID card issued by the state or county".
  • Wisconsin's law was allowed to stand on the state's pledge "to provide temporary free IDs to those in need".
  • Tennessee lets an indigent voter who cannot get ID without paying a fee sign an affidavit instead.

NCSL's tables do not say whether every strict state offers a free ID card.

Chart 4

Proof-of-citizenship laws more than doubled in 2024–2026

After five states enacted documentary-proof-of-citizenship laws by 2011, the count did not move until 2024. Eight states then acted in three years.

Many proof-of-citizenship laws are not in force, or only ask when records cannot confirm citizenship

The chart counts laws enacted, not laws applied to every registrant:

  • Not in force: Alabama's and Kansas's laws, Kansas's "due to court decision". Florida's begins in 2027.
  • Partly blocked: a federal judge reinstated New Hampshire's affidavit alternative in May 2026.
  • Only when records fail: six of the 13 states, including Georgia and Florida, ask for documents only if state records cannot confirm citizenship.
  • Federal races only: Utah and South Dakota let voters without proof vote in federal but not state races.

Chart 5

Eight of the 10 strict-photo states also offer early voting to everyone, starting two to four weeks out

Ohio and Indiana open earliest, about four weeks before Election Day, and Wisconsin latest, two weeks before. Strict ID and early voting already sit together in most strict states, without any national agreement pairing them.

Two strict-photo states offer no early voting

Mississippi and New Hampshire are strict-photo states and, with Alabama, the only three states without early in-person voting for all voters. Even where early voting exists, most strict states start later than the 27-day average across early-voting states.

Chart 6

The commission paired photo ID with free cards and state outreach

The report asked states both to require photo ID and to supply it free, with mobile offices registering voters and issuing cards. It also recommended proof of citizenship at registration.

The commission split, and its co-chair called Georgia's 2005 law a poll tax

Three commissioners dissented from the ID recommendation. In a September 2005 interview, Carter said Georgia's new law, which charged about $20 for a five-year card or $35 for ten years, "is a poll tax", because the commission's plan required "that the voter ID card be free of charge". Georgia now offers a free card.

Chart 7

Photo ID at the polls is required nationally in Italy, Britain and Canada, and in most of France

Italy's law requires an ID document "purché munito di fotografia" (provided it has a photograph). Britain requires photo ID for UK Parliament elections, Canada requires government photo ID with an address or two other authorised IDs, and France requires ID in communes of 1,000 or more people.

Germany asks only on request, and Japan does not ask

German voters must identify themselves "auf Verlangen" (on request), especially without their polling notice. Japanese voters are checked against the register, and a voter whose identity cannot be confirmed must declare who they are. Two of the seven have no routine document check.

Where ID is required or expected, the state often supplies the document or the registration

Germany requires every citizen aged 16 or over to hold a valid ID card, and registers eligible voters automatically from residence records. Britain offers a free Voter Authority Certificate.

The Carter–Baker report observed that "most advanced democracies have fraud-proof voting or national ID cards". Whether each comparator's ID card is free or universal was not checked country by country.

Most comparators keep a fallback for voters without ID

Canada lets a voter without ID make a written declaration if another elector at the same polling station vouches for them; Italy lets a poll official or a known local voter attest to identity. Britain has no such fallback on the day: in 2023 its then government rejected vouching, saying it "would undermine the integrity of the check".

Chart 8

Northern Ireland adopted ID after organised personation

Northern Ireland's Chief Electoral Officer reported personation "on a planned and well organised basis" in the early 1980s, and 149 people were arrested for personation at the June 1983 general election. ID followed in 1985 and photo ID in 2003.

Even in Northern Ireland, personation's scale was never measured

A 1998 government review found postal-vote malpractice but said personation at polling stations "has, however, been impossible to quantify", while police experience "certainly suggests that abuse is taking place".

The Electoral Commission later wrote that the extent of fraud "has never been quantified", so the impact of the measures could not be assessed accurately.

Britain adopted ID to close a gap, not after a rise in detected personation

The Electoral Commission recommended ID in 2014 because polling-station voting "had few checks in place to detect fraud" once registration and postal voting were tightened. Lord Pickles, recommending pilots, accepted that allegations were low and prosecutions rare, and invoked a "precautionary principle". Since 2016, polling-station personation has produced five convictions and six cautions (as of August 2025).

Canada adopted ID because no check existed, with no fraud episode cited

Canada's 2007 law followed a Commons committee that was "struck by the absence of any requirement for an elector to confirm his or her identity" and saw this as "a significant deficiency … that could encourage fraudulent voting practices". The legislative summary cites no documented case of fraud as the reason.

Chart 9

Britain's turnaways were small, and fell at each election

Both lines fell at each round, and by about two-thirds from the 2023 local elections to the 2024 general election. At the general election, about 16,000 people, one in every 1,200 in-person voters, did not return and vote.

The turnaway figures undercount, and some people stayed home because of the rule

People reminded of the rule by greeters before reaching the ballot desk were not recorded, and some polling stations sent no return; the Commons Library adds that 20 constituencies sent no data in 2024.

About 4% of non-voters in 2024 gave an unprompted reason related to the ID rules, and non-voters in lower social grades were more likely to say they lacked the required ID. The Commission says it "cannot use these figures to accurately quantify the impact of voter ID on turnout".

Confidence in Britain's elections rose, but the effect on personation is unknown

The share of people who thought voting was safe from fraud rose from 72% at the 2019 general election to 87% in 2024.

The government's evaluation said it "cannot be determined" whether the checks made personation easier to detect. Seven polling-station personation allegations in 2024 led to no prosecution.

Chart 10

Awareness of Britain's rule was lower among young and ethnic-minority voters

18-to-24-year-olds and ethnic-minority communities sit well below the Great Britain average; social grades differ little. Northern Ireland, where ID has been required for decades, was about level with Scotland and Wales at their first ID election.

Chart 11

Northern Ireland's register fell 10% in 2002, mostly from new registration rules

The Electoral Commission attributed the fall mainly to ending the practice of carrying names forward. It rejected the claim that 120,000 people were disenfranchised, but found "some evidence" that eligible people previously registered had not re-enrolled.

The fall measures the registration reform passed with photo ID, not people turned away at the polls.

After photo ID, Northern Ireland recorded much less suspected personation and no fall in turnout

Researcher Stuart Wilks-Heeg, quoted by the Commons Library, found "no evidence to suggest a fall in turnout". The other measures cited:

Measure Figure
Tendered ballots issued, 2005 general election 55, a 94% reduction from 1983
Personation convictions since 2002 One
Electors who believed fraud was commonplace, early 2000s 66%
Electors thinking at least some fraud took place, 2017 28%

Chart 12

Few Canadian non-voters cite process problems, including ID

Electoral-process reasons, which include being unable to prove identity or address, stayed a small share of non-voters' main reasons at all three elections. The category also includes other problems, so the share blocked by ID alone is smaller and is not published.

Canada keeps vouching as a fallback

A Canadian voter with no ID may vote after a written declaration, if an elector listed at the same polling station shows ID and vouches for them. Canada's rule also accepts two non-photo IDs instead of one photo ID.

Election Fraud and Voter Exclusion in the US, 1870s–2026

Most documented US election fraud was done by election officials, by absentee ballot or by buying votes, which polling-place ID checks do not reach, while officials' exclusion of eligible citizens ran statewide.

Chart 1

Most documented fraud was done by the people running the election

In eight of the twenty cases, election officials did the fraud themselves: stuffing the box, forging ballots or leaving returns out of the count.

In Chicago in 1982, election judges cast ballots in the names of voters who had moved or died, more than one-third of the votes in one precinct. In another precinct, a Republican judge voted names a Democratic precinct captain gave her on slips of paper.

In-person voting in other people's names is in the record too

The record does contain the fraud a polling-place ID check is aimed at. Tammany Hall's paid "repeaters" voted several times each, changing their facial hair between votes.

In Chicago, the 7th Circuit wrote in 1987, precinct captains "vote their proxies on election day or find some reliable party member to do so", while "cooperative election judges refrain from challenging multiple votes by the same person under different names".

In Washington in 2004, one of 19 suspected "ghost voters" was confirmed to have voted in person in someone else's name.

An ID check would not have touched 14 of the 20 cases

In fourteen cases nobody came to the polls under a false identity: officials changed or added ballots, ballots went by mail, or real voters sold their votes.

An ID check confirms that the voter is the person registered under that name, which this fraud never relied on. Levitt describes polling-place ID rules as designed for "people showing up at the polls pretending to be somebody else".

Where in-person fraud happened, the people checking were often part of it

In Chicago and Kansas City, votes were cast in other people's names at the polls with election judges taking part or looking away. An ID rule is enforced by those same judges.

Whether a photo requirement would still have made the ghost voting harder (by forcing judges to accept missing ID openly, or by deterring party workers) is not something the records measure.

The Carter–Baker Commission held that ID would deter some of these methods

The 2005 commission found "no evidence of extensive fraud in U.S. elections or of multiple voting, but both occur, and it could affect the outcome of a close election".

It judged that a good ID system "could deter, detect, or eliminate" multiple voting and voting "using the identities of others or those who are deceased", the method of Chicago's ghost voting. It also called absentee ballots "the largest source of potential voter fraud".

Chart 2

Case by case: how each fraud was done, and what happened

Each row of the table gives how the fraud was done, whether a polling-place ID check would reach it, and what happened, as of the date shown.

Machine fraud was large, and was prosecuted

Kansas City's 1936 fraud led to hundreds of convictions and Chicago's 1982 fraud to dozens (see the table). In Kansas City's ninth trial, the judge noted no jury had yet acquitted a defendant.

In one Kansas City precinct, the Republican congressional candidate received 120 votes and was credited with 46.

Kansas City's organisers chose not to send impersonators

A precinct captain testified that he put about 150 "ghosts and sleepers" on the roll. His ward bosses were "not sending repeaters" because "it would be easier to write in the votes", so he stuffed the box himself.

In another precinct about 150 names were written into the poll book after the polls closed, with as many ballots added. In a third, one witness did see a man vote two or three times.

Stale rolls supplied the names the fraud used

Chicago's 1982 fraud used registrants whom precinct workers knew had died or moved but left on the list; ballots were then cast in their names. Kansas City's fraud began with a padded roll.

A party to a 1987 lawsuit estimated that 9% of Chicago registrants were "tombstones, vacant lots, and people who have moved out of the city".

The fraud was caught by investigators and courts, not by ID rules

Chicago's 1982 fraud was exposed by an FBI investigation and a special grand jury, and Kansas City's by a federal grand jury and prosecutor. East Chicago and North Carolina's 9th District were overturned by a state court and a state election board. None of the records read here credits an identity check with catching a case.

Illinois 1960: fraud that was smaller than the presidential margin

Kennedy carried Illinois by about 9,000 votes. Edmund Kallina's study of the recount finds "a considerable number of votes" stolen in paper-ballot precincts from the Republican state's attorney, Benjamin Adamowski, and far fewer from Nixon.

On his reading, Adamowski would have won and Nixon would still have lost. How the votes were stolen is not described in the account read here.

Chicago 1982's fraud favoured the candidate who lost the governor's race

The 1982 governor's race was decided by 5,074 votes statewide. The two Chicago schemes described on appeal cast straight Democratic tickets, the party of the losing candidate, Adlai Stevenson. The Heritage Foundation attributes an estimate of at least 100,000 fraudulent votes citywide to US Attorney Dan Webb, citing press reports from 1983. No primary source read gives a citywide count.

Chart 3

The modern cases that changed results were absentee

All three modern results that were voided or rerun turned on absentee or mail ballots.

The Supreme Court noted in 2008 that East Chicago's fraud was "perpetrated using absentee ballots and not in-person fraud".

Chart 4

In Heritage's own list, impersonation at the polls is among the smallest categories

Heritage tags far fewer entries as "impersonation fraud at the polls" than as absentee-ballot fraud, false registration or vote buying. Only "illegal assistance" and "altering the vote count" are smaller.

Many of Heritage's impersonation entries involve mail ballots

Fourteen of the 34 impersonation entries are also tagged as absentee-ballot fraud, and two more describe mail ballots, such as a Colorado man who submitted his missing wife's absentee ballot in 2020. At most 18 describe only voting in person under another's name.

Indiana's ID law was upheld with no Indiana impersonation on record

When the Supreme Court upheld Indiana's photo-ID law in 2008, the lead opinion said the only fraud the law addresses is in-person impersonation, and "the record contains no evidence of any such fraud actually occurring in Indiana at any time in its history".

It upheld the law anyway, citing "flagrant examples" documented elsewhere in US history and the risk to close elections.

Chart 5

Two independent counts find impersonation rare among detected fraud

In News21's database of alleged cases since 2000, in-person impersonation is by far the smallest named category.

Justin Levitt, counting every specific, credible allegation from 2000 to 2014 rather than prosecutions, found about 31 incidents among more than 1 billion ballots cast in general and primary elections. Both counts share the detection limit above.

Chart 6

Louisiana: from 44% of registrants to under 1%

As the Supreme Court recounted in Louisiana v. United States (1965) :

Year Black share of Louisiana's registered voters
1898, new constitution adopted about 44%
Under a "grandfather clause" and, from 1921, an "interpretation test", until 1944 "never exceeded one percent"
1956 about 15%

After 1956 a legislative committee and the Citizens Councils challenged Black voters on the rolls, and "thousands of Negroes, but virtually no whites, were purged".

Before the Voting Rights Act, registration barely moved

By the Attorney General's estimates to Congress in 1965, Black registration barely moved in the decade before the Act, with white registration "roughly 50 percentage points or more ahead".

State Black registration, earlier Black registration, latest
Alabama 14.2% (1958) 19.4% (1964)
Louisiana 31.7% (1956) 31.8% (1965)
Mississippi 4.4% (1954) 6.4% (1964)

The table Congress used in 2006, charted above, shows the gap still there in 1965: Mississippi's white rate was 69.9 percent.

The tools turned on officials' discretion

The courts found that Louisiana's interpretation test gave registrars "a virtually uncontrolled discretion as to who should vote and who should not", and that registrars in 21 parishes used it against Black applicants.

The other main tool, the poll tax, was a charge for voting; the Supreme Court struck it down for state elections in 1966. Whether a uniform, free photo ID resembles these tools is a judgement the sources do not settle.

Chart 7

By 2004 the gaps had closed or nearly closed

By 2004 Black registration was higher than white in Georgia and Mississippi; the largest remaining gap was Virginia's (57.4 percent against 68.2).

The Supreme Court majority wrote that "there is no doubt that these improvements are in large part because of the Voting Rights Act".

Chart 8

Remedies, in order

The secret ballot spread after 1888; reformers wanted to end vote buying, since a buyer could no longer watch the bribed voter.

The spread of state voter-ID laws since 2000 is covered in the report on ID rules. No source read measures whether any of these rules caused the decline of machine fraud.

Chart 9

Florida 2000: a removal list with many errors

In Miami-Dade, over half of the Black voters who appealed were reinstated.

Stuart's analysis put errors at "probably more than 25%" of the list, with Black registrants more often listed in error and Republican county supervisors more likely to use it.

A competing reading of the Florida data

Abigail Thernstrom testified to the Senate in 2001 that the Commission's own data showed whites "erroneously placed on the purge list at almost twice the rate of blacks". The sources agree the list was badly inaccurate; they disagree on whether its errors fell harder on Black voters.

Non-Citizens on US Voter Rolls

State reviews find non-citizens at hundredths of a percent of registrants or fewer, and the database flags they start from include many citizens; how many go undetected is unmeasured.

Chart 1

Every state that looked found some non-citizens on its rolls

Georgia, Iowa, Louisiana, Ohio and Kansas each found some non-citizens on their rolls, and no state that ran a review reported zero. The chart shows each count per million registrants; the raw counts are in its note.

Confirmed registrants are hundredths of a percent of the rolls or fewer

Even the tallest bar, Louisiana's preliminary count reaching back to records from the 1980s, is about 130 per million registrants. Georgia's confirmed count is the shortest, and Kansas's court finding was 0.002% of its registrants.

The bars span two orders of magnitude partly because the states count different things: Georgia counted only cases it had "conclusively identified", while Ohio and Louisiana counted apparent or suspected cases not tested in court.

A check of a whole statewide roll is now routine

Texas ran its entire roll, more than 18 million voters, through SAVE in 2025 and flagged about 0.015% of it. Ohio's office says it now identifies non-citizens "at the time of registration".

Before SAVE was opened to bulk checks in 2025, states such as Georgia and North Carolina relied on licence, jury and individual immigration-record checks.

Kansas: dozens of non-citizens over 19 years, against 31,089 applicants blocked

The longest record comes from the Kansas litigation. The district court found that at most 67 non-citizens registered or tried to register, and 39 got onto the rolls; it found the cases "largely explained by administrative error, confusion, or mistake".

Kansas's proof-of-citizenship law, meanwhile, left 31,089 applicants denied registration. These are applicants who did not supply documents, not people shown to be citizens.

Georgia held 1,634 applicants SAVE could not verify before they reached the rolls

Georgia's first citizenship audit, announced in March 2022, counted applicants held at registration rather than people on the roll:

  • 2,258 applications held in "pending citizenship" status; none was added to the rolls and none had voted.
  • 1,634 of them could not be verified by SAVE; the office called them non-citizens.
  • 624 could not be run through SAVE for lack of information, and were held because licence records listed them as non-citizens.

Because none reached the rolls, they are not in the chart. "Not verified" by SAVE is not the same as confirmed: SAVE can miss citizens whose status is absent from federal records.

Most non-citizens reach the rolls through paperwork errors

The reviews describe the same few routes:

  • Clerical error: Texas found people registered by county staff even though they had marked themselves non-citizens on the application.
  • Licence-record coding: Arizona's motor vehicle agency coded everyone licensed before 1996 as a citizen, so 218,000 registrants had no proof of citizenship on file. All had sworn they were citizens, and by October 2024 two had been identified as non-citizens.
  • Misunderstanding: some North Carolina voters said they did not know they could not vote.
  • Administrative anomalies: the Kansas court attributed most of its 39 cases to error and confusion.

Georgia found its 20 because they had sworn they were not citizens to get out of jury duty. Each route runs through a check at the point of registration, which is where a records check or a documentary-proof rule would apply.

Chart 2

Some non-citizens vote, and every review finds a few

Every review that checked ballots found a few non-citizen voters; the chart shows the rate for each single election. Iowa also found five whose ballots were rejected. Counts that span several elections, or that are referrals rather than findings, are below.

Review Non-citizen voters found or referred
Louisiana, records back to the 1980s 79 who voted at least once
Ohio, 2024 referral batch 138 who had cast ballots
Tennessee 42 referred to the FBI
Indiana "at least 21"
Texas, first SAVE referrals (June 2025) 33 voters
Texas, September 2026 117 cases referred for investigation

Votes found are between about 1 and 22 per million ballots

Iowa's 2024 rate is the highest in the chart, and North Carolina's 2016 rate is less than half of it.

The lowest bar, the Brennan Center's 2016 survey, comes from interviews with officials in 42 jurisdictions with large non-citizen populations, not a records check; New York City declined to take part. The Brennan Center is an advocacy organisation.

Referrals rarely become prosecutions

Ohio's suspected voter-fraud referrals of all kinds, sent to county prosecutors:

  • 633 sent;
  • 12 taken up; prosecutors said the others lacked evidence to pursue indictments;
  • 6 indicted after the Attorney General took the cases to grand juries.

After the 2018 referrals, "only a handful were ever prosecuted". Some non-citizens who voted said they did not know they were barred, and North Carolina found some had been misinformed by registration drives or a precinct official.

A case not prosecuted is not thereby shown to involve an eligible voter, and a referral is not thereby shown to involve an ineligible one.

Chart 3

Flag lists shrink sharply on review

In every program with a published follow-up, a large share of the people flagged turned out to be citizens, from about a sixth in Denton County to nearly all of North Carolina's licence-record flags.

The share depends on the database. Licence records keep showing people as non-citizens after they naturalise, as in Texas in 2019 and North Carolina in 2016. SAVE's misses fall on people whose citizenship is missing from federal records, such as those who acquired it through a parent.

Texas: 578 of 2,724 SAVE flags shown to be citizens, 117 referred

  • October 2025: SAVE flagged 2,724 of more than 18 million registrants; counties mailed notices and cancelled those who did not reply in 30 days.
  • December 2025: Denton County had 84 flagged voters: 14 proved citizenship, 14 had marked "not a citizen" on their forms and were registered in error (none had voted), and 56 were cancelled for not replying, five of them because their notices were undeliverable.
  • July 2026: the state elections director said SAVE had "some inaccurate information" and told counties to reinstate some voters, without yet saying how many.
  • September 2026: 578 had demonstrated citizenship, 506 of them because passport data reached SAVE after the state's first run, and 117 cases were referred for investigation of possible non-citizen voting.

No count of confirmed non-citizens among the 2,724 has been published.

Alabama: about 2,000 of 3,251 flagged were citizens

In August 2024 Alabama made 3,251 people inactive, using non-citizen numbers recorded by its unemployment and licence agencies. The Secretary of State's chief of staff testified to what followed:

  • About 2,000 were citizens: more than 900 proved it themselves, and another 1,000 were cleared when the office checked licence records.
  • At least 159 were removed, "a few" of whom said on their forms that they were non-citizens.

A federal court halted the program because it ran inside the 90-day window before a federal election. Lawyers opposing a similar Virginia program said the licence-record check confirmed 93.8% of Alabama's checkbox-based flags as citizens, without confirming the rest as non-citizens.

Iowa's pre-election list and its later count came from different checks

Two weeks before the 2024 election, Iowa challenged the ballots of 2,176 people who had once told its transportation department they were not citizens.

After it gained access to federal immigration records, it identified 277 non-citizen registrants and 35 voters. The later count is not described as a subset of the earlier list, so it is a smaller final count from a better source, not a measured rate of wrong flags.

Virginia removed 1,610 people; no count of citizens among them exists

Virginia's program removed 1,610 registrants inside the 90-day window in 2024. According to the voters' lawyers, the district court found the state had not shown that any of them were non-citizens, while crediting evidence that citizens had been removed.

The Supreme Court stayed that order on 30 October 2024, with three justices dissenting. No count of how many of them were citizens has been found.

SAVE has checked tens of millions of voters, with no published error rate

What the Solicitor General told the Supreme Court in September 2026 about the revamped SAVE:

  • Checked: more than 65 million voters in 26 states.
  • Flagged as potential non-citizens: 28,635. These are flags, not confirmed non-citizens.
  • Error rate: not released, as the groups challenging it noted.

USCIS's own fact sheet says SAVE may be unable to confirm people who acquired citizenship through a parent. In 2016, before the overhaul, North Carolina found that about 75% of people who later proved citizenship were still listed as non-citizens in SAVE.

States' own records would have cleared some flagged citizens

Texas did not check its SAVE list against its own licence records before sending it to counties. In Travis County, 11 of 97 flagged voters had already given the licence agency proof of citizenship.

Across the counties that answered Votebeat, at least 33 citizens had been identified by December 2025. The Texas Secretary of State wrote to USCIS that state licence records sometimes "inaccurately reflect a person's current citizenship status".

Texas's 2019 review flagged almost 100,000, including about 25,000 listed in error

In 2019 Texas questioned the citizenship of almost 100,000 registrants, using licence records from people who had once said they were not citizens. The state later said it had overstated the list by about 25,000 names, counties found hundreds of naturalised citizens on it, and the state agreed in a settlement to scrap it.

Chart 4

Both kinds of error appear in the same reviews

Each review produces two counts: ineligible registrants found, and eligible citizens wrongly flagged.

In the reviews with published follow-ups, citizens wrongly flagged outnumber the non-citizens confirmed.

Chart 5

The non-citizen votes found are far below recent close margins

Both margins dwarf the non-citizen voters the same states' reviews found, even counting every DHS-flagged Georgian who had ever voted in any election. Iowa's count is statewide, so fewer could have been in the close district.

North Carolina's audit found that even if every ineligible ballot it identified in 2016 had gone to the winner, no race would have had a different outcome.

Some local elections are decided by a handful of votes

Louisiana's Secretary of State said fraud was not systemic but noted that some local elections had been decided by a handful of votes; she did not say whether any non-citizen votes affected them.

A race decided by single digits is within the range of counts found statewide. No source here matches non-citizen voters to the precincts or districts where they voted.

Chart 6

Ohio has found non-citizen registrants in every batch since 2019

Every batch in the chart contains non-citizen registrants, at sizes that vary widely. In October 2025 Ohio forwarded to the Justice Department 1,084 cases going back to 2018 that included 167 people who allegedly voted in a federal election. The batches cover different elections and methods, so they do not show a trend.

Ohio's counts are a small fraction of its electorate

Ohio had 8,159,946 registered voters and 5,851,387 ballots cast in November 2024. The alleged voters in the 2025 referral span every federal election from 2018 to 2024; dividing them by one election's ballots would overstate the rate. The Secretary of State, a Republican, called non-citizen registration "exceedingly rare".

Burdens of ID and Citizenship-Proof Rules: Missing Documents, Rejections and Turnout

Few citizens have no photo ID, but millions hold outdated licences or cannot readily reach proof of citizenship; Kansas and Texas rules blocked tens of thousands; effects on overall turnout are small and disputed.

Chart 1

Texas has stayed well above its 2020 rate and the national rate

Texas's line rises after its ID-number rule and stays well above both its 2020 rate and the national line. Texas also sent 5.8% of its 2024 mail ballots into curing, the process for fixing errors, against 1.5% nationally. The figures are not split by reason, so the share due to the ID rule is unknown.

Texas's rate fell sharply after the first primary

The March 2022 primary's spike (chart below) was not repeated in November. The state election office credited redesigned envelopes, extra instructions, voter education and voters getting used to the rule. Note too that 2020 was Texas's low point: its 2016 and 2018 rates were about twice as high.

Georgia's rate fell after SB 202 and has sat near the national rate

Georgia's line, high under signature matching in 2016 and 2018, has sat close to the national line since SB 202 replaced signatures with an ID number. Its 2020 point is a floor, because the state's count missed some county rejections.

In a survey of county election offices, 32% said fewer mail ballots were rejected in 2022, though a plurality said the new verification had not reduced rejections.

The two states' ID-number rules produced opposite movements

Texas's number had to match whichever one was on the voter's registration record, and rejections rose; Georgia's replaced signature matching, and rejections fell. So an ID requirement's effect on rejections depends on its design and what it replaces. It is not evidence about polling-place photo ID.

Chart 2

Georgia's racial turnout gap widened in 2022, the first general election under SB 202

In November 2022 the gap between white and nonwhite turnout was the widest since at least 2014.

The gap was already moving before SB 202, and its authors do not attribute it to the law

The white–Black gap also rose in 2016 and 2020 before the law and fell in the 2018 midterm. The Brennan Center, which wrote that SB 202 "erected multiple barriers to voting", says "we cannot say whether the passage of S.B. 202 is the cause" of the 2022 widening. Its 2024 analysis is in the next chart.

Georgia voters reported few problems in 2022

In a survey of more than 1,200 Georgians who voted in 2022, few reported problems:

  • 1.1% said they had a problem casting a ballot.
  • 75% of in-person voters waited ten minutes or less.
  • 72% rated their experience excellent, up from 55% after 2020.

The survey reached only people who voted, so it cannot show how many were deterred.

Chart 3

Black turnout in Georgia dipped in 2024 while white turnout rose

The white–Black gap grew about as much from 2020 to 2024 as from 2016 to 2020, but for a different reason: this time Black turnout fell slightly, where before both groups rose. This analysis uses a different turnout estimate from the 2014–2022 chart, so the two sets of gaps are not comparable.

Chart 4

Few citizens have no photo ID at all; many more hold an outdated licence

The bar for no photo ID of any kind, about 1% of adult citizens, is a fraction of the bar for a licence without current name or address, nearly always an old address. Whether that group is burdened depends on the rule: a law accepting any current photo ID does not touch them; one requiring a matching address would.

About one citizen in ten cannot readily produce proof of citizenship

Over 9% of adult citizens have no birth certificate, passport, naturalization or citizenship certificate, or could not get to one by the next day; far fewer have none at all. The survey did not ask about the marriage or divorce records people who changed their name usually need, so its authors call the estimate for women a lower bound.

The survey was commissioned by voting-access groups and run by an independent firm

Its sponsors were VoteRiders (which helps voters get ID), Public Wise, the Brennan Center and the University of Maryland's Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement; the firm SSRS fielded it. It is self-reported and the only recent national measure; no survey by a government agency or a group favouring ID laws was found to compare it with.

Chart 5

A licence is often missing for reasons other than cost

Not driving is by far the most common reason for having no licence; cost and other bureaucratic or economic reasons together account for about a fifth. In 2014 GAO found licence fees in strict-ID states ranged from $14.50 to $58.50. No source measures the time and travel needed to obtain documents.

Chart 6

Black, Hispanic and independent citizens are most likely to have no licence at all

On the chart's default view, no licence at all, Black, Hispanic and independent citizens are about three times as likely as white citizens or Republicans to have none. For white citizens the more common problem is an outdated licence. A missing licence is not the same as missing photo ID, which the survey does not break down by group.

Chart 7

The young and the poor are most likely to lack a licence with current details

The share falls steadily with age and with income. For the young the gap is mostly addresses: people who have recently moved. For those earning under $30,000, most of it is having no licence at all.

Chart 8

Gaps in proof of citizenship cut across parties

Every group has a gap, Republicans included; independents and people of color have the largest. Because there are more white than nonwhite citizens, more white citizens in total lack ready access: over 12.9 million against over 8.4 million.

Chart 9

Kansas blocked 31,089 applicants against at most 39 non-citizens on its rolls

The blocked applications were 12.4% of new registrations from 2013 to 2015; the confirmed non-citizens on the rolls were 0.002% of registered voters.

The trial court noted that even the state's expert's estimate implied more than 99% of applicants held in suspense were citizens. In 2020 the Tenth Circuit upheld its injunction, holding that the requirement unconstitutionally burdened the right to vote and was preempted by federal registration law.

Non-citizen registrations in Kansas were real but few

The court did find confirmed non-citizen registrations. Kansas also offered anecdotes, including a clerk's letter about hog-farm employees taken by their employer to register who felt pressured "even though they may not be legal".

In 2016 the court found that evidence "insufficient to show that noncitizens actually voted". After trial it found the confirmed cases "largely explained by administrative error, confusion, or mistake".

Chart 10

Arizona found 218,000 long-registered voters without proof of citizenship on file

Arizona has required proof of citizenship for state elections since 2004, and accepts a licence issued after 1996 as proof. Its motor-vehicle records coded everyone licensed earlier as a citizen without seeing proof, so at least 218,000 voters had full-ballot status without the document on file.

All had sworn to their citizenship, and when this was announced in October 2024 two had been identified as non-citizens. The case shows that long-registered citizens have often never been asked for documents, and that the records used to check citizenship can be wrong.

The same records gap let a few non-citizens vote in Maricopa County

Only a handful of the referrals proved to be non-citizens who had voted, all licensed before October 1996, the group whose records had wrongly shown citizenship. No statewide outcome for Arizona's 218,000 has been published.

Chart 11

Texas rejected 12.38% of mail ballots in the first primary under SB 1

Statewide, 24,636 mail ballots were rejected, and Harris County's rate leapt from almost none in its 2018 primary. Officials said most were rejected for a missing or mismatched ID number: voters missed the field under the envelope flap, or the number had to match one on a registration record that could be decades old.

Chart 12

About 90% of rejected Texas mail voters did not vote another way

Very few rejected voters found another way: "roughly 90%" did not take part in the primary at all. They were not occasional voters; about 85% had voted in every general election from 2016 to 2020.

Texas allows mail voting only for certain groups, including voters aged 65 and over and people with disabilities. The study covers one primary; no follow-up exists for the general elections, where rejection rates were lower.

Chart 13

The national panel finds no turnout or registration effect from strict ID laws

Cantoni and Pons's nationwide panel of 1.6 billion voter-record observations, 2008–2018, found strict ID laws had "no negative effect on registration or turnout, overall or for any group defined by race, gender, age, or party affiliation". It covers ID at the polls, not proof of citizenship at registration or ID numbers on mail ballots.

The same study finds no effect on fraud, actual or perceived

The panel also finds "strict ID requirements have no effect on fraud – actual or perceived".

GAO estimated turnout fell 2 to 3 points more in Kansas and Tennessee

GAO compared Kansas and Tennessee, which tightened their ID rules for the 2012 general election, with four states that did not, and found turnout fell more in both. GAO says the estimates do not apply to other states or years; the two states' election offices disputed its comparison states and one dataset.

Of the ten earlier studies GAO reviewed, five found no significant turnout effect, four a decrease and one an increase.

The national and state estimates are less opposed than they look

GAO's Kansas and Tennessee estimates lie inside the national study's 95 percent confidence interval for the average effect. The national study rules out large average effects, not effects of that size in particular states or elections.

Neither measures burden directly. The blocked applicants, rejected ballots and people without ID in this report met an obstacle; turnout studies measure whether the total number voting changed.

Chart 14

GAO found larger drops among young, newly registered and Black registrants

In Kansas the extra drop was largest for 18-year-olds, then for the newly registered, then for Black registrants; Tennessee showed the same pattern, smaller for age and race. GAO found no larger effect for Hispanic or Asian-American registrants.

The national panel finds no extra effect on non-white voters, and more campaign contact

The national study's estimate for non-white relative to white turnout is slightly positive and not significantly different from zero. Campaigns became 4.7 points more likely to contact non-white voters, which "might have offset modest effects" of the laws. If so, the lack of a turnout effect partly reflects effort spent overcoming the rule, not a rule with no cost.

Chart 15

Great Britain's turnaways were small and fell at each election

Both shares fell at each round; at the July 2024 general election those who did not return came to about 16,000 people. About two-thirds of those first turned away in 2024 came back with ID and voted.

Some British non-voters say the ID rule kept them away

Around 4% of people who did not vote in 2024 gave an unprompted reason related to the ID rules, and non-voters in lower social grades were more likely to say they lacked the required ID. This is the closest published measure of deterrence beyond those turned away at the door; no US equivalent was found.

Voter Roll Maintenance in the US

States remove millions of registration records each cycle, mostly after unanswered notices, moves and deaths; lists still carry inaccurate records, and bulk matching programs have repeatedly flagged eligible citizens.

Chart 1

About 21 million records were removed in 2022–24

The chart shows the count and the share of registrants for each cycle. In the latest, most states removed between 3% and 10% of their lists. These are records taken off the lists, not people found to have voted illegally: the same report counts moves, deaths and unanswered notices as the main reasons (see the next chart).

The number removed has grown; the share removed has stayed in a band

The count climbed through most cycles, while the share of registrants removed stayed in a band, from a low in the 2008 cycle to a high in 2024. Part of the rise in the count is more states reporting: 42 answered in the 2006 cycle, and every state with registration from 2018.

Because the share has moved much less than the count, most of the rest reflects longer lists rather than a higher removal rate. No source links the rise to a change in how often voters move or die.

Lists always carry some ineligible records

The Election Assistance Commission (EAC) says that because removal "can take up to two federal general election cycles", "it is inevitable that voter lists will contain some number of voter records for individuals who are no longer eligible to vote."

This is a statement about records, built into the federal process; it is not an estimate of how many there are.

Chart 2

Records states reported removing from their voter lists in the two years before each federal general election, in records and as a share of registrants. Each point covers the two-year period ending in that year.

Chart 3

Unanswered notices, moves and deaths are most removals

Reason for removal, 2022–24 Share of removals
No reply to a confirmation notice, then missed two federal general elections 33.5%
Moved out of the jurisdiction 30.8%
Died 21.6%
Duplicate record 8.1%
Other 3.4%
Voter's request 2.6%
Criminal conviction or incarceration 1.5%

The shares are from the EAC's corrected 2024 figures. The same three were the largest named reasons in every cycle since 2006, although in the 2006 cycle the catch-all "other" category, which then included duplicates, was larger than any of them. In the latest cycle both moves and non-response reached their highest counts in the series.

The non-response route is the largest and least certain

Non-response has been the single largest reason in most cycles, at between about a third and two-fifths of removals.

It rests on silence rather than on a record that the voter moved: the registrant did not return a card and did not vote for about four years. How many of these people were still living at their address is not measured nationally (see the Ohio chart below and Data still needed).

Chart 4

States' removal rates differ more than their populations do

The chart runs from Utah at the bottom to Puerto Rico at the top, while nearly two-thirds of states removed between 3% and 10%. Some of the spread is definitional: half of Texas's latest removals were duplicate records, a category first counted in 2024; states that merge duplicates rather than delete them report fewer removals.

Chart 5

Notices are sent widely and rarely answered

States sent notices to more of their active voters in the latest cycle than in either of the two before (see the chart note). Most were never returned, and fewer than one in ten came back undeliverable. An unreturned notice is what starts the non-response route in the reasons chart.

Chart 6

In Ohio's 2012 mailing, more recipients said they had not moved than had

Most recipients never replied, and of those who did, about four times as many said they had not moved as said they had.

Justice Breyer read the silence as showing "nothing at all that is statutorily significant"; the Court's majority held that federal law nonetheless makes removal "mandatory" once the notice and two-election conditions are met.

Amici cited by Justice Sotomayor reported that African-American-majority neighbourhoods in downtown Cincinnati had 10% of voters removed for inactivity, against 4% in a majority-white suburb.

Chart 7

ERIC has flagged 14.6 million cross-state movers since 2013

The Electronic Registration Information Center (ERIC), a members' compact of state election offices, matches voter files against motor-vehicle and Social Security death data and sends members leads to check. Its totals to the end of September 2026:

  • In-state address updates: 31,170,181
  • Cross-state movers: 14,600,683
  • In-state duplicates: 1,459,110
  • Deceased registrants: 681,231

These are leads, not removals: members must still contact movers under federal and state law. ERIC itself says "Illegal voting is exceedingly rare".

Cross-state mover reports fell after 2021 as members left

Cross-state mover reports peaked in 2021 and fell steeply as members left; the members reading shows the drop.

A cross-state match needs both states in the compact, so fewer members means fewer possible matches. ERIC does not say how much of the fall is due to departures rather than fewer moves.

Chart 8

Nine Republican-led states left ERIC in 2022–23

NPR reported in October 2023 that "Nine states — all Republican-led — have now withdrawn from ERIC" without a replacement. In order of departure they were Louisiana, Alabama, Missouri, Florida, West Virginia, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia and Texas. The chart marks the report, Hawaii's joining and Virginia's order to rejoin.

Iowa objected to ERIC's bylaws, including its requirement that members contact eligible but unregistered people; Virginia cited data security. ERIC's current list has 27 states and the District of Columbia.

Chart 9

The only direct measure of inaccurate registrations dates from 2011

Pew's study, using data from 2004 to March 2011 and published in February 2012, put inaccurate or no-longer-valid records at nearly 13 percent of the national total; the chart breaks that down by type. Pew said the analysis "likely underestimates" the problem.

The Supreme Court's majority in Husted (2018) opened with this estimate, and ERIC's website still cites the same 2012 study for the scale of the problem. No later national estimate of the same kind was found.

The figure predates ERIC, which began in 2012, and the growth in removals shown above, so it cannot be read as the size of the problem today.

"Inaccurate" in Pew's count is not "ineligible", and stale records are not votes

Pew counted as "inaccurate" an eligible voter whose file has wrong details, such as an old address, alongside "no longer valid" records of people who moved or died. NPR's report on the study said "There's little evidence that this has led to widespread voter fraud". The study measured records, not ballots cast in those names.

Chart 10

The 90-day limit has stopped late programs

The Eleventh Circuit held in 2014 that Florida's 2012 non-citizen program, first using motor-vehicle records and then the federal SAVE database, broke the 90-day limit; two named plaintiffs flagged by it were citizens.

The court said eligible voters "removed days or weeks before Election Day will likely not be able to correct the State's errors in time to vote." In October 2024 a federal judge blocked Alabama's program on the same ground, finding it began "eighty-four days before" the election.

The limit does not cover individual removals for death, request or conviction.

The Supreme Court upheld non-voting as a trigger for notices

In Husted v. A. Philip Randolph Institute (2018), the Court ruled 5–4 that Ohio's process, which uses failure to vote as the reason to send a confirmation notice and removes only after the notice and two-election steps, "does not violate the Failure-to-Vote Clause or any other part of the NVRA". Four justices dissented.

The Supreme Court let Virginia's 2024 removals stand

On 30 October 2024 the Supreme Court stayed a district-court order that had required Virginia to restore registrants removed under its non-citizen program; three justices would have denied the stay.

The district court had found, according to the challengers' filing, that the state "failed to show that any of the 1,610 people removed" were non-citizens. No count of citizens among them has been published.

Chart 11

Bulk matches have repeatedly flagged eligible voters

Every programme in the table flagged people who were eligible. The Brennan Center describes the two usual causes as bad source data (Arkansas's felony list) and loose matching rules (Texas's "weak" death matches, Crosscheck's name-and-birth-date match).

A 2017 Stanford-led study estimated that Crosscheck applied nationally would "impede 300 legal votes for every double vote prevented." In North Carolina, the challengers' brief quotes the Fourth Circuit as finding "97.6% of persons identified by the DMV as noncitizens, in fact were citizens".

Florida's 2000 list was inaccurate; whether errors fell more on Black voters is disputed

A Harvard Kennedy School analysis estimated that "probably more than 25%" of names on the list were there in error, that more Black registrants were wrongly listed than white or Latino ones, and that Republican county supervisors were more likely to use it. In Miami-Dade, over half of the African Americans who appealed were reinstated.

Abigail Thernstrom, a dissenting member of the US Commission on Civil Rights, testified that the commission's own data showed "whites were erroneously placed on the purge list at almost twice the rate of blacks."

SAVE flags include citizens, at an unknown rate

The federal SAVE database was overhauled in 2025 to check citizenship in bulk. The Solicitor General's figures, which are not audited:

  • Checked: more than 65 million registrants in 26 states.
  • Flagged as potential non-citizens: 28,635.

In Texas:

  • Flagged: 2,724, about 0.015% of its registrants.
  • July 2026: the elections director said SAVE had "some inaccurate information" while "most of the data" matched the licence agency's.
  • September 2026: 578 of the 2,724 (21.2%) had demonstrated citizenship, 506 of them because passport information was added to SAVE after the first run.

Flagged Texans who do not reply within 30 days are cancelled but can be reinstated at the polls with proof of citizenship. The non-citizen findings themselves are in Non-Citizens on US Voter Rolls.

Advocates' purge totals are mostly the lawful removals in the federal data

The Brennan Center's "almost 16 million voters" purged between 2014 and 2016 is the EAC's total of removals for every reason, more than half of them moves and deaths (see the first two charts).

The Brennan Center itself says that "When done correctly, purges ensure the voter rolls are accurate and up-to-date." The errors in the table are real but are thousands to hundreds of thousands of records against removals in the tens of millions; no national count of wrongful removals exists.

Chart 12

Lawsuits have pushed states to remove millions of stale registrations

Judicial Watch counts more than five million names removed since 2017 after its NVRA suits, the largest in Los Angeles County, New York City and Kentucky (see the table). These were registrations removed through the notice-and-wait process; the group describes them as ineligible, and they are part of the national totals in the first chart.

Over-100% claims count inactive records against survey estimates

The county claims compare registrations, including inactive registrants awaiting the two-election clock, with sample-based Census estimates of eligible citizens. Judicial Watch's release says inactive voters "are still registered voters"; the statistician quoted by Snopes said "If you haven't voted, you haven't voted fraudulently."

A registration rate above 100% therefore measures stale records the process has not yet removed, which the EAC says lists will always carry, rather than ballots cast.

Public Opinion on Voting Rules and Confidence in US Elections

Photo ID and early voting have majority support in both parties in Pew and Gallup polls, confidence mostly follows who holds or wins power, and studies disagree on whether strict ID laws raise it.

Chart 1

Photo ID has majority support in both parties

Every Pew reading since 2018 shows large majorities of both parties in favour of photo ID (chart). Gallup's October 2024 poll agrees, at 84% of adults.

MIT's post-election survey of voters finds Republican support "nearly unanimous" (92.4% in 2024) and Democratic support rebounding after a dip.

Democratic support for photo ID has risen since 2021–22

In Pew's series, Democratic support was flat at 61% from 2021 to 2023 and then rose in 2024 and 2025 (chart). Gallup's Democrats dipped in 2022 and then rose 14 points by 2024.

Republican support stayed in the 90s throughout. The rise came while photo ID was being argued over in Congress and the states; the surveys do not establish why it happened.

Support for photo ID crosses racial groups

Pew finds at least seven in ten adults in each racial and ethnic group it reports favour photo ID requirements (2025). Among Democrats in 2021, White Democrats were the least supportive.

Group Favour photo ID
White adults (Gallup, 2024) 86%
Non-White adults (Gallup, 2024) 80%
White Democrats (Pew, 2021) 54%
Black Democrats (Pew, 2021) 65%
Hispanic Democrats (Pew, 2021) 72%
Asian Democrats (Pew, 2021) 71%

Access measures divide the parties more than ID does

Automatic registration splits the parties far more than photo ID, and Republican support for it fell after 2018 and has not recovered (chart).

No-excuse mail voting splits them further: 83% of Democrats and 32% of Republicans favoured it in 2025. Of the access measures Pew asks about, only early in-person voting has majority support in both parties.

Chart 2

Share of US adults who favour requiring all voters to show government-issued photo identification, and who favour automatically registering all eligible citizens, in every Pew American Trends Panel wave that asked. Republicans and Democrats include independents who lean to each party.

Chart 3

Republican support for early voting rose in 2025

In Pew's series, Republican support for two weeks of early in-person voting was nearly flat from 2021 to January 2024, then rose in August 2025 (chart).

Gallup's differently worded item runs the other way over a longer period: Republican support fell between 2016 and 2024 while Democrats' stayed high (Gallup chart below). Read together, the two series show Republican support falling after 2016 and partly recovering by 2025.

Both majorities exist, but how many back both is not published

Photo ID (83%) and two weeks of early voting (80%) were asked of the same half-sample in August 2025. Pew does not publish how many respondents favoured both. The two shares alone guarantee that a large majority backed both, but not the exact size of that group; see Data still needed.

Chart 4

Gallup's series shows the same pattern from 2016

In Gallup's three readings, photo ID and early voting each have the support of at least three in four adults, and automatic registration less (chart). The partisan gap on photo ID widened from 32 to 44 points between 2016 and 2022 before narrowing again.

Chart 5

Share of US adults who favour each policy in the three Gallup polls that asked all three. Gallup's party groups do not include leaners, so Republican and Democratic figures are not directly comparable with Pew's.

Chart 6

Share of US adults who favour each policy in the three Gallup polls that asked all three. Gallup's party groups do not include leaners, so Republican and Democratic figures are not directly comparable with Pew's.

Chart 7

Proof of citizenship at registration has the same level of support as photo ID

Support for requiring proof of citizenship at first registration matches support for photo ID, and divides by party and race in the same way (chart).

Gallup asked the question for the first time in 2024, so there is no trend. The question does not say what documents would count, which is where the dispute over such rules lies (see the burdens of ID and citizenship rules).

Chart 8

The parties fear different failures, and the gap has grown on one side

Republicans have grown more likely to expect ineligible voting to be a major problem, and Democrats less likely (chart). Concern that eligible voters will be blocked is similar in both parties, apart from a Democratic spike in 2020 (next chart).

In open-ended answers in October 2026, 19% of Republican voters raised illegitimate or fraudulent votes.

Democratic voters more often raised legitimate voters being denied access (10%) or interference by the Trump administration (11%).

Both goals are nearly universal

90% of adults said in April 2026 that it is important that "no eligible voters are prevented from voting" and 85% that "no ineligible voters are permitted to vote". The parties disagree about which goal current elections fall short of, not about whether both matter.

Chart 9

Share of US adults who expect each irregularity to be a major problem in that year's presidential election.

Chart 10

Republicans doubt noncitizens will be stopped; Democrats doubt every eligible voter can vote

Each side is least confident in the safeguard the other side worries about less (chart). Republican confidence that noncitizens will be stopped is up from 35% among Trump voters in 2024.

Chart 11

Confidence in the count follows the party in power

Republicans were more confident than Democrats under George W. Bush, the two converged in 2008, and Democrats were more confident under Barack Obama and Joe Biden (changes of president are marked under the chart). The gap reached a record 56 points in 2024.

A study pooling about 30 national surveys from 2000 to 2012 finds "a consistent relationship between voting for the winner and confidence". It attributes the decade's fall in national confidence almost entirely to "a forty-point decline among Republicans".

The exceptions point to what leaders say, not only who wins

Gallup names two exceptions. In 2008 both parties stood at 57%, and in 2020 Republican confidence fell under a Republican president "amid then-President Donald Trump's public questioning of the validity of mail voting" (marked on the chart).

A study of 2016 finds the winner effect outweighed pre-election "rigged" messaging from elites. In 2018 there was essentially no winner effect at all.

The national level has not collapsed; the share with no confidence has grown

More than half of Americans have been confident in every Gallup reading since 2004 (chart), most of all in 2004 and 2006. But the share "not at all confident" rose from 6% in 2004 to 19% in 2024.

Confidence in one's own polling place is higher: 76% in 2024.

Chart 12

After each election the winner's side becomes more confident

MIT's post-election survey of voters shows the swing directly: each party's confidence in the nationwide count rises after its candidate wins the presidency and falls after a loss (chart).

Earlier work on 2000–2012 put the average rise among winners at about 20 points for confidence in one's own vote, against a fall of about 2 points among losers.

In 2016 Democrats went from 15 points more confident than Republicans before the election to 13 points less confident after it.

Chart 13

Ahead of the 2026 midterm, there is no partisan gap in Pew's measure

In July 2026 Republicans and Democrats were about equally confident that the November elections would be conducted fairly and accurately (chart).

Republican confidence rose and Democratic confidence fell after the change of administration (marked under the chart). The convergence came from both sides moving, not from either party's confidence reaching earlier highs.

Chart 14

Share of registered voters very or somewhat confident that votes cast each way across the US will be counted as intended, asked each October. Groups are supporters of each party's candidates (president in 2020 and 2024, House in 2022 and 2026).

Chart 15

Confidence in mail ballots is lower and has fallen among Democrats in 2026

Voters are less confident in the mail count than the in-person count, and Democratic confidence in mail ballots fell sharply in 2026 while Republicans' edged up (chart).

Confidence follows voters' own method: 76% of mail and absentee voters are confident in the mail count, against 47% of in-person voters. Mail-ballot rules are covered in a separate topic.

Chart 16

US confidence in election honesty has been low by this measure for two decades

US confidence in the honesty of elections has averaged 45% since 2006, with its low in 2016 (chart). This is a different question from Gallup's domestic vote-count item, and gives lower figures.

Party was recorded only from 2024. That year the Democratic–Republican gap was 55 points; in 2025 it closed to 4 points.

In 2026 it reopened: 63% of Democrats were confident against 37% of Republicans.

Chart 17

The approver–disapprover gap held for three presidents, widened under Biden and vanished in 2025

Americans who approved of national leadership were the more confident group under Bush, Obama and Trump's first term; under Biden the gap widened, and since 2025 it has vanished (chart).

Gallup attributes the collapse partly to approvers changing from mostly Democrats to mostly Republicans, and partly to Democratic confidence falling and Republican confidence rising under Trump.

Chart 18

A winner–loser gap is the global norm; the US is now the exception

Across more than 100 countries, approvers of their national leadership are far more confident in election honesty than disapprovers (chart). In 2026 the US gap ran the other way, which Gallup says no other country has shown in 15 years.

Experts rate US counting well even as public confidence divides

The Electoral Integrity Project's expert survey found US integrity scores fell in 2024, but rated "the counting, results and procedural aspects of the election" strong; the weak areas were "electoral boundaries, media and finance". Expert scores measure the process, not public belief, and do not address whether ineligible people voted.

Chart 19

Georgia's confidence rebound came on the side that won

Republican confidence in Georgia's statewide count rebounded in 2022, the first general election under SB 202 (marked under the chart), while Democratic confidence dipped.

The authors caution that the rebound may reflect "the noted winner's effect", since the Georgia GOP won every statewide office except a Senate seat in 2022. Voting itself went smoothly: 1.1% of respondents reported a problem casting a ballot.

Chart 20

SB 202 raised confidence for most Republicans and lowered it for a plurality of Democrats

Most Republicans said SB 202 had increased their confidence; a plurality of Democrats said it had decreased theirs (chart). A rule passed by one party raised confidence on that party's side and lowered it on the other.

Chart 21

One study finds strict ID raises confidence

Milyo finds that adopting strict ID raised the probability of high confidence by 14 percentage points, "a 25% increase relative to the mean", using a direct question about the honesty and integrity of state elections and controlling for party.

He notes as "an important limitation" that few states adopted or removed strict ID in the period.

Two national studies find no effect on confidence

Stewart, Ansolabehere and Persily find that people in states with ID laws "do not have greater confidence in elections or perceive lower rates of voter impersonation fraud", and that many people do not know whether their state has such a law.

Cantoni and Pons find strict ID has "no effect on fraud – actual or perceived", alongside no effect on turnout. Milyo attributes his different result to the direct confidence measure and longer period, not to his party controls.

Agreement with the rules matters as well as who wins

Clinton finds voters "less likely to express confidence in election results conducted using procedures they oppose", beyond the effects of partisan control and outcomes, with "particularly large" effects for voter ID laws and among Republicans and independents.

This fits the Georgia pattern. It suggests a rule raises confidence among its supporters and lowers it among its opponents, so its net effect on confidence depends on how widely it is supported.

Federal and State Power Over Voter ID and Registration Rules

The Constitution gives election rules to states and Congress, not the President; both parties' national bills stalled in the Senate, and courts blocked the 2025 executive order's citizenship rule but not the 2026 order.

Chart 1

The Elections Clause names state legislatures and Congress, not the President

The clause says the times, places and manner of congressional elections "shall be prescribed in each state by the legislature thereof; but the Congress may at any time by law make or alter such regulations".

The President's part is the ordinary one for any law: every bill is presented to him to sign or veto. The clause gives him no power to set election rules by order.

Chart 2

The Supreme Court calls Congress's power over federal elections "paramount"

In Arizona v. Inter Tribal Council (2013) the Court quoted its 1880 ruling: Congress's power over the times, places and manner of congressional elections "is paramount, and may be exercised at any time, and to any extent which it deems expedient".

On that basis it held that the NVRA overrode Arizona's demand for documentary proof of citizenship from people using the federal form. A national ID or proof-of-citizenship law for federal elections would rest on this power.

The same ruling held that who may vote is for the states

The Court said the Elections Clause "empowers Congress to regulate how federal elections are held, but not who may vote in them". It added that Arizona could ask the Election Assistance Commission to add its requirement to the form's state-specific instructions, and go to court if refused.

Voter qualifications such as citizenship are set by the states; checking them at registration sits where the two powers meet.

*Crawford* (2008) upheld Indiana's photo-ID law without proof of impersonation in Indiana

Justice Stevens's lead opinion accepted Indiana's interests in deterring fraud and in public confidence, which "has independent significance, because it encourages citizen participation in the democratic process". It held those interests "both neutral and sufficiently strong" to defeat the facial challenge.

Three more justices concurred, finding the burden of a free photo ID "simply not severe". The vote was 6–3, with no opinion joined by a majority.

The *Crawford* record contained no in-person impersonation in Indiana, and an estimated 43,000 residents without ID

The lead opinion said the only fraud the law addresses is in-person impersonation, and "the record contains no evidence of any such fraud actually occurring in Indiana at any time in its history". It relied instead on documented cases elsewhere.

It also recorded the trial court's estimate that around 43,000 Indiana residents lacked a state licence or ID card. The dissent said the law "threatens to impose nontrivial burdens on the voting right of tens of thousands of the State's citizens".

State courts can review state legislatures' election rules

Moore v. Harper (2023) held that the Elections Clause "does not insulate state legislatures from the ordinary exercise of state judicial review". "The states" in this argument means each state's whole constitutional system, including its courts and constitution, not only its legislature.

Chart 3

Federal law already contains an ID rule, for first-time voters who registered by mail

Since 2002, HAVA has required a first-time voter who registered by mail to show one of these:

  • "a current and valid photo identification"
  • a copy of a utility bill, bank statement, government check, paycheck or other government document with their name and address

A voter without one may cast a provisional ballot. HAVA also bars states from processing a federal registration without a driver's licence number or the last four digits of a Social Security number.

The rule accepts non-photo documents and covers only first-time voters who registered by mail; it does not ask for proof of citizenship.

Congress has set national floors for registration and voting several times since 1965

The Voting Rights Act, the NVRA and HAVA each imposed rules on how states run federal elections: how people register, how rolls are cleaned and what new mail registrants must show.

They leave each state to choose what ID to ask for at the polls and whether to demand documents proving citizenship, within the limits ITCA set for the federal form.

The federal registration form asks only for a sworn statement of citizenship

The NVRA's federal form, written by the Election Assistance Commission, "requires only that an applicant aver, under penalty of perjury, that he is a citizen". Both the SAVE America Act and the 2025 executive order would require documents proving citizenship instead.

The Freedom to Vote Act would have set national access rules and required ID states to accept alternatives

The bill would have required early voting, no-excuse absentee voting and same-day registration, and required states with ID laws "to accept specified information or documentation to satisfy ID requirements".

The two parties' main bills of the past five years therefore both sought national standards, in opposite directions: one mandating ID and proof of citizenship, the other limiting what ID states could demand.

Chart 4

Both parties' recent national bills stalled at the Senate's 60-vote threshold

Both bills in the chart failed to end debate: the Democrats' in January 2022 and S. 5271, a Republican photo-ID-only bill, in August 2026. The Freedom to Vote Act had already failed cloture once, in October 2021. Neither became law.

The House has passed the SAVE Act or SAVE America Act three times

  • 10 April 2025: the SAVE Act (proof of citizenship to register) passed 220–208, with four Democrats in favour.
  • 11 February 2026: the SAVE America Act, which combined it with a photo-ID requirement, passed 218–213.
  • 22 July 2026: the House passed it again, packaged with the National Defense Authorization Act to make it harder to vote down in the Senate.

Status of the SAVE America Act on 23 October 2026: passed by the House, not by the Senate

After the 8 August vote, Republicans looked to the budget reconciliation process, which cannot be filibustered, as a route for the bill. A budget plan was paused when President Trump intervened. No later Senate vote was found in reporting checked on 23 October 2026.

Chart 5

Two courts held the 2025 order's proof-of-citizenship section beyond presidential power

Executive Order 14248 told the Election Assistance Commission to require "documentary proof of United States citizenship" on the national mail registration form.

The federal court in Washington, D.C. permanently barred the commission from implementing that section in October 2025, on the plaintiffs' separation-of-powers claims. The federal court in Massachusetts followed in June 2026, holding that the challenged sections "exceeded the President's constitutional authority" and conflicted with the NVRA, UOCAVA and HAVA. The government has appealed.

The Supreme Court let the 2026 order's citizenship lists proceed

Executive Order 14399 directs DHS to send each state a list of adult citizens built from federal citizenship, Social Security and SAVE records.

On 24 August 2026 the Supreme Court stayed the injunction against it, calling the order "an internal directive" that "neither requires nor forbids anything of anyone outside the Executive Branch". It held the states were unlikely to have standing, since they need not use the lists.

That stay was not a ruling on whether the order is lawful

The majority wrote that its ruling "does not mean that any measure taken by the Government to implement the Order will necessarily be lawful. On that score, time will tell." The dissent said the decision "merely postpones adjudication" of whether the President's actions are lawful.

The only merits rulings on presidential power so far are the two district-court rulings on the 2025 order.

The revamped SAVE database is back in use, with no published error rate

A district judge blocked the revamped SAVE system in June 2026 under the Social Security Act, the Privacy Act and the Administrative Procedure Act. In September the Supreme Court stayed that order, saying it stopped "individualized inquiries, which are permitted under federal law" during the 90 days before an election.

The checks and flags in the table are the government's own figures, and its opponents said no error rate had been released. What those flags turned out to be is in the report on non-citizens on voter rolls.

States still set most ID rules, and those rules keep changing

The number of states asking for ID at the polls has nearly tripled since 2000, reaching 36 in September 2026. Thirteen states had passed proof-of-citizenship laws by July 2026; not all are in effect because of court rulings.

The Supreme Court let New Hampshire enforce a new law dropping student IDs on 22 October 2026, saying lower federal courts "should ordinarily not alter the election rules on the eve of an election". The state-by-state detail and its trend are in the report on voter ID rules.

Principles

Verifiably honest elections

An election should be won by the votes of the people entitled to cast them, each voting once, with every vote counted as cast. Honesty is not enough on its own; it has to be checkable, so that anyone who doubts a result can see how it was produced. An honest count that no one can verify is hard to tell apart from a dishonest one.

The secret ballot, introduced in Australia in the 1850s and Britain in 1872, ended an era when employers and party agents could watch how a man voted and pay or punish him for it. In South Africa's first free election in 1994, voters' fingers were marked with ink that would not wash off for days, so that nearly twenty million people, many voting for the first time, could see that no one had voted twice.

Rules must mean what they say

Public rules and promises should be dependable, and the powerful should be bound by them too. People deserve to know where they stand and to trust that a right will be honoured when they need it.

A fair trial, in which an ordinary person can hold a powerful official to account under the same law, embodies this ideal. So does an employer paying workers the wages they were promised. Keeping a commitment gives people a foundation on which to plan their lives; equal application of the rules protects them from arbitrary power.

An equal voice for every citizen

In choosing a government, every citizen counts the same: the poor and the rich, the busy and the idle, the city dweller and the farmer a long drive from the nearest office. Political equality is the one kind of equality a democracy promises outright, and it is real only if each eligible person can actually use their vote. A right that is hard to exercise for some people and easy for others is not equal in practice.

In 1965 marchers crossing the Edmund Pettus Bridge in Selma, Alabama, were beaten by state troopers for demanding the right to register. Within months Congress passed the Voting Rights Act. Around the same time the Supreme Court ruled that legislative districts must hold roughly equal numbers of people, ending systems in which a rural voter could outweigh many city voters: one person, one vote.

Priority to the worst off

The people in greatest need deserve our first concern. A decent society pays special attention to those with the least power, fewest resources and least ability to protect themselves.

Feeding children during a famine and giving emergency care to the most seriously injured make this principle easy to recognise. The urgency of their need gives them a special claim on help. Providing shelter for people who have lost their homes expresses the same conviction: people whose lives are most precarious should come first in our care.

Results the losers can accept

Democracy depends less on how winners behave than on how losers behave. The side that lost has to hand over power and wait for the next election, and it will do that reliably only if it believes the contest was fair. Rules that both sides trust are worth a great deal, because they make defeat something to recover from rather than something to resist.

In 1801 John Adams handed the presidency to Thomas Jefferson, the rival who had beaten him, in the first transfer of power between opposing parties in American history. Two centuries later Al Gore lost Florida, and with it the presidency, by 537 votes after the Supreme Court halted a recount. He said he disagreed with the ruling, and accepted it.

Decisions made closest to the people

People can judge a decision best when they can see its effects and reach the people who made it. A distant government has to apply one rule to places that differ widely; a local one can fit the rule to the place, and can be voted out by neighbours who watched it work. Decisions should therefore be made at the lowest level that can handle them, and taken higher only when they must be.

In New England town meetings, residents still vote in person on their own budget, roads and schools, as they have for more than three centuries. Switzerland leaves so much to its cantons that taxes, schooling and even voting procedures differ from one to the next, within a country that is among the most stable in the world.

Cruxes

Would a national proof-of-citizenship rule keep eligible citizens off the rolls in large numbers, or would they get the documents? Different predictions

Kansas is the only large test, and its record cuts both ways. The rule blocked 31,089 applicants against at most 39 non-citizens on the rolls, but the court found no evidence of how many of them lacked a document. Nationally, about one adult citizen in ten cannot readily produce proof.

If most of the blocked could have complied with a little more effort, a records-first national rule would cost little, and the case against these rules loses its strongest number. If many had no document they could reach, the SAVE America Act's requirement would keep citizens off the rolls at scale, and the case for proving identity would have to accept that cost openly. A follow-up of a blocked-applicant list, asking who later registered and why the rest did not, would settle much of it.

Voters should prove who they are, and that they are citizens
Most people blocked in Kansas could have complied and did not finish; with records checked first and documents asked for only when records fail, few citizens would ever need to produce a paper.
These rules keep eligible citizens from voting, to stop fraud that barely exists
Millions of citizens cannot readily reach a birth certificate or passport, and Kansas shows what happens: tens of thousands of eligible applicants stay off the rolls, whatever the reason they did not finish.
Require ID and guarantee easy voting, so both sides trust the result
It depends on whether the state supplies the documents and the help. A rule passed without free documents and outreach would block citizens; the same rule paired with them need not.
Would strict ID raise confidence in elections once who won is taken into account? Different predictions

Confidence follows who holds power, so a rule's own effect is hard to see. One study finds strict ID raised high confidence in state elections, from few state changes; two national studies find no effect; and voters trust results less under procedures they oppose.

If strict ID raises confidence on both sides, the confidence argument for photo ID argument stands and the case for pairing ID with access need not trade anything for it. If it raises confidence only among supporters, the case for pairing ID with access is right that the way a rule is passed matters as much as the rule. If it moves nothing, confidence is no reason for ID at all, and the case against these rules loses nothing by opposing it.

Voters should prove who they are, and that they are citizens
Yes. Voters who see their identity checked have a reason to trust the count, and the one study with a direct confidence measure and party controls finds a large rise.
These rules keep eligible citizens from voting, to stop fraud that barely exists
No. People mostly do not know their state's rule, the national studies find no effect, and confidence moves with who won.
Require ID and guarantee easy voting, so both sides trust the result
Only if both sides accept the rule. A rule one party imposes raises confidence among its supporters and lowers it among its opponents, so the net effect depends on how it is passed.
Is the greater danger to American elections fraud by voters and machines, or exclusion by officials? Different assumptions

Both records are well documented, and they cannot be added up against each other. The fraud record is counted in convictions and altered ballots per precinct, and the exclusion record in registration rates across whole states.

How a reader weighs that history decides how much risk each rule carries. Someone who reads Louisiana's collapse in Black registration as the pattern to fear will treat any eligibility rule run by officials as a danger, as the case against these rules does. Someone who reads the machine fraud as the pattern will see the same rules as a safeguard. The sources do not settle whether a uniform, free ID resembles the Jim Crow tools.

Voters should prove who they are, and that they are citizens
Fraud. Machines stole votes on a large scale within living memory, while the Voting Rights Act has closed the registration gaps, and a free, uniform ID gives officials no discretion to abuse.
These rules keep eligible citizens from voting, to stop fraud that barely exists
Exclusion. It ran statewide for most of the twentieth century, and bulk removals and document demands run by officials still sweep up eligible voters in the tens of thousands.
Clean up the voter lists, instead of making voters prove themselves at the polls
Neither framing helps. Both dangers ran through the list: fraud used dead and departed names, and exclusion used selective removals. Accurate lists kept in the open answer both.
How much impersonation and non-citizen voting goes undetected? Different assumptions

Every count on this topic is of cases someone found. Detected impersonation is a floor, and non-citizen reviews find only people whose status is in some government record. No source estimates the rest.

This is the gap that most decides the argument about photo ID at the polls. If undetected impersonation and non-citizen voting were many times the detected numbers, the central claim against these rules, that the problem barely exists, would fail. If they are close to the detected numbers, the case for proving identity falls back on confidence and principle. The evidence that would settle it is an independent audit: for example, matching a sample of ballots cast against death, residence and citizenship records, rather than waiting for complaints.

Voters should prove who they are, and that they are citizens
Detected cases are a floor, and probably well below the true number, because a successful impersonation leaves no complaint and a non-citizen who never told an agency their status appears in no record.
These rules keep eligible citizens from voting, to stop fraud that barely exists
The detected numbers are close to the truth. Repeated whole-roll checks with better databases keep finding the same tiny numbers, which is not what a large hidden problem would look like.
Clean up the voter lists, instead of making voters prove themselves at the polls
Unknown, which is the argument for better records checks: they shrink the undetected share whatever its size, without assuming an answer.
Should Congress set one national standard for voter ID and proof of citizenship? Different priorities

Congress clearly has the power: the Supreme Court calls it "paramount", and it has set national floors several times since 1965. The question is whether it should use that power to choose the document, which evidence cannot settle.

The disagreement is about which principle comes first. Decisions made closest to the people favours fifty choices; an equal voice for every citizen and results the losers can accept can favour one rule for everyone. Since both parties' national bills stalled in the Senate, the case for leaving it to the states and the case for pairing ID with access disagree most sharply here: one wants no national bill, the other wants a different one.

Election rules belong to the states, and presidents have no say in them
No. Which document a voter shows is for each state's voters to choose; Congress should protect the right to vote, not pick the document, and the President has no say at all.
Voters should prove who they are, and that they are citizens
Yes, for federal elections. Congress's power is paramount there, and a citizenship requirement that some states never check is not a national requirement.
These rules keep eligible citizens from voting, to stop fraud that barely exists
Only a floor that protects access, such as requiring alternatives to ID. A national document mandate would spread Kansas's mistake to every state.
Require ID and guarantee easy voting, so both sides trust the result
Yes, if it is a package both parties vote for. One national bargain is the only way to take the rules out of each election's fight.
Is an eligible citizen kept from voting a worse error than an ineligible vote counted? Different trade-offs

Every check makes both kinds of mistake, and the same reviews count both. In the ones with published follow-ups, citizens wrongly flagged outnumber the non-citizens confirmed. Evidence can say how many of each a rule produces; it cannot say how many wrongly blocked citizens one prevented illegal vote is worth.

If a reader holds that one ineligible vote counted is as bad as one eligible voter blocked, the ratios in these reviews favour lighter checks, and the case for proving identity loses its main reason for documents. If they hold that an undetectable ineligible vote is worse, because it cannot be corrected, a measurable burden on citizens is the acceptable side of the trade, and the counts of blocked applicants stop being decisive.

Voters should prove who they are, and that they are citizens
Both are wrongs, but an ineligible vote silently cancels a lawful one and can never be found and removed, while a citizen without ID can get one free. A check that turns away a few people who could have complied is a fair price for a check that works.
These rules keep eligible citizens from voting, to stop fraud that barely exists
Keeping an eligible citizen from voting is the worse error, because it falls on a real person with a right, and the rules make many such errors to prevent very few of the other kind.
Clean up the voter lists, instead of making voters prove themselves at the polls
The choice is forced only by bad tools. Records checks with notice and time to answer cut both errors at once; what matters is publishing how often each happens.