Steelview

Removals and Returns from the UK

Enforced returns have risen since 2021 but remain under half their 2004 level, and no source measures how many removals the ECHR blocks, though the nearest proxies, which may understate it, show a small share. [2][21][45][17]

Returns from the UK by type, 2004–2025

Returns by type

Every return the Home Office records in each calendar year from 2004, the first year of its returns table: enforced returns, voluntary returns, and people refused entry at a port who then departed. Lines are counts of returns, not of unique people.

Returns recorded that year, by year

Every return the Home Office records in each calendar year from 2004, the first year of its returns table: enforced returns, voluntary returns, and people refused entry at a port who then departed. Lines are counts of returns, not of unique people. Read as returns by type: Returns recorded that year. Dashed segments cross 2 definitional breaks in the source, explained in Method Changes below this graph. Use the Table switch to see every value.

  • Enforced returns
  • Voluntary returns
  • Refused entry at port and departed
010k20k30k40k20042020202505k10k15k20k25k30k35k40k2004201020202025

Vertical dashed lines mark measurement changes. See method changes.

Source: Home Office [73]

Observations 4
Returns fell for a decade, then recovered after 2021

Enforced returns drifted down from 2004 to 2019 and voluntary returns fell from 2016, before both collapsed during the pandemic. Since 2021 enforced returns have risen each year, to 9,669 in the year to June 2026, and voluntary returns to 30,936. 2 3 The Migration Observatory puts 2025 returns at the highest since 2016 but still slightly below a decade before. 8

Why returns fell in the 2010s is not settled

The Migration Observatory attributes the 2010s decline to a combination of resource constraints, more legal challenges, administrative delays and fewer referrals to Immigration Enforcement, and the recovery to bigger budgets and higher immigration. Enforcement spending fell 19% in real terms between 2014/15 and 2020/21. 9 10 It says limited data prevent a definitive assessment of the legal-challenge share. 11

Most returns are voluntary, and much cheaper

An enforced return cost an average of £48,800 in 2024/25, against £4,300 for a voluntary one. 14 Port returns — people refused entry who leave again — are counted separately: 18,646 in the year to June 2026. 1 All these figures count returns, not people: someone returned twice in a period is counted twice. 7

Return agreements are neither necessary nor sufficient

Countries without a formal UK returns agreement accounted for 49% of returns in 2025, and the Migration Observatory cites studies finding agreements had little effect on return rates in the EU. 13 Failing to obtain travel documents was the most common reason officials decided not to detain someone liable to removal, in a 2014/15 inspection. 12

Method Changes
2010: Returns from detention move into the enforced count

Home Office: "Data prior to 2010 is not directly comparable with data from 2010 onwards. From 2010 onwards, 'other returns from detention' are included within 'enforced' returns." [73]

2016: One-off data matching of voluntary returns

Home Office: "For the financial year 2016/17 (from 1st April 2016 to 31st March 2017), 'other verified returns' include non-visa nationals matched against records with no valid leave in the UK to establish as a proxy those leaving the UK without informing the immigration authorities. These returns have been included as part of a one-off data matching exercise." [73]

About this data

Full published range: 2004–2025. Every plotted line runs the whole of it – Table Ret_01 runs from 2004 to the year ending June 2026. The chart stops at the last complete calendar year. Figures for 2024 and 2025 are provisional, and voluntary returns are revised upwards as departures made without telling the Home Office are matched later, so the latest two years will rise.

Returns of foreign offenders and asylum-related returns, 2010–2025

Offender and asylum-related returns

Returns of foreign national offenders (enforced, voluntary and port), and enforced plus voluntary returns of people who had claimed asylum at some point. The two groups overlap: an offender who once claimed asylum is in both lines, so they must not be added together.

Returns recorded that year, by year

Returns of foreign national offenders (enforced, voluntary and port), and enforced plus voluntary returns of people who had claimed asylum at some point. The two groups overlap: an offender who once claimed asylum is in both lines, so they must not be added together. Read as offender and asylum-related returns: Returns recorded that year. Dashed segments cross 1 definitional break in the source, explained in Method Changes below this graph. Use the Table switch to see every value.

  • Foreign national offenders returned
  • Asylum-related returns (enforced and voluntary)
04k8k12k20102020202502k4k6k8k10k12k14k201020202025

Vertical dashed lines mark measurement changes. See method changes.

Source: Home Office [75]

Observations 2
Foreign-offender returns are back near their 2016 peak

Foreign offender returns averaged around 5,500 a year in 2010–2019, peaked at 6,437 in 2016, fell below 3,000 a year in 2020–2021, and in the year to June 2026 were 7% below the peak. 4 The Home Office attributes the fall after 2017 partly to a 2017 Supreme Court judgment that stopped removal before appeals were heard and a 2019 legal challenge that suspended charter flights, as well as the pandemic. 51

Method Changes
2020: Asylum-related returns recorded differently from October 2020

Home Office: "The way asylum-related returns are recorded has changed meaning data for asylum-related returns is not comparable before and after October 2020." [74]

About this data

Full published range: 2010–2025. Every plotted line runs the whole of it – Tables Ret_02a and Ret_05 start in 2010. The asylum-related line is the sum of Ret_05's enforced and voluntary asylum columns; it excludes port returns, as the Home Office's own asylum-related total does. 2024 and 2025 are provisional.

Refused and withdrawn asylum claims, and returns recorded, by year of claim, 2007–2025

In claims

Main applicants who claimed asylum in each year, followed up to July 2026: how many were refused or withdrew at their latest outcome, and how many from that year's claims have since been recorded leaving by enforced or voluntary return. Recent years are still working through decisions and appeals, so their lines will change.

Main applicants, by year of claim, by year of claim

Main applicants who claimed asylum in each year, followed up to July 2026: how many were refused or withdrew at their latest outcome, and how many from that year's claims have since been recorded leaving by enforced or voluntary return. Recent years are still working through decisions and appeals, so their lines will change. Read as in claims: Main applicants, by year of claim. Use the Table switch to see every value.

  • Refused at latest outcome
  • Withdrawn at latest outcome
  • Recorded as returned (enforced or voluntary)
010k20k30k40k20072020202505k10k15k20k25k30k35k40k2007201020202025

Source: Home Office [76]

Observations 3
About half of refused claimants are recorded as leaving

Of asylum claims made in 2010–2022 and refused by the end of 2025, around half had led to a recorded return. The share was around 72% for 2010 claims, 33% for 2018 claims and 48% for 2022 claims. 15 16 The chart's own measure, which also counts withdrawn claims, shows the same shape: above half for claims made before 2014, around a fifth to a quarter for 2016–2021.

Refusals now far outrun returns in any single year

The government said 58,000 people had their asylum claim refused between June 2024 and June 2025, while fewer than 11,000 people were removed; the two counts are different groups of people, not a removal rate. 18 The Bill's impact assessment sets 446,000 claims in 2021–2025 against 33,000 asylum-related returns. 19

Not recorded leaving is not the same as still here

193,000 people who claimed asylum in 2010–2024 and were refused or withdrew had not been recorded leaving by January 2026. The Migration Observatory treats this as an upper bound, because some were later granted status or left unrecorded, including via Ireland. 71 72

Returns as a share of refused and withdrawn claims

Percent of refused plus withdrawn claims, by year of claim

Main applicants who claimed asylum in each year, followed up to July 2026: how many were refused or withdrew at their latest outcome, and how many from that year's claims have since been recorded leaving by enforced or voluntary return. Recent years are still working through decisions and appeals, so their lines will change. Read as returns as a share of refused and withdrawn claims: Percent of refused plus withdrawn claims. Use the Table switch to see every value.

  • Returns as a share of refused and withdrawn
0%20%40%60%2007202020250%10%20%30%40%50%60%2007201020202025

Source: Home Office [76]

About this data

Full published range: 2007–2025. Every plotted line runs the whole of it – Asy_D04 covers claims made from 2007 to 2025, with outcomes as at July 2026, main applicants only (dependants are not counted). Returns are counted for the whole year's claims, whatever the latest outcome, so the share is returns as a proportion of refused plus withdrawn claims, not a matched rate. The Home Office warns that outcomes for recent years are not comparable over time because many are not yet known.

Returns as a share of refused and withdrawn claims

Derived: enforced plus voluntary returns from each year's claims, divided by that year's refusals plus withdrawals at latest outcome.

People leaving immigration detention, by outcome, 2010–2025

Exits from detention

Every exit from immigration detention each year, by what happened next: returned from the UK, bailed (by the Home Secretary or an immigration judge), or another outcome (granted leave, sectioned, moved into criminal custody, or released for other reasons). The three lines add up to all exits.

Exits from detention that year, by year

Every exit from immigration detention each year, by what happened next: returned from the UK, bailed (by the Home Secretary or an immigration judge), or another outcome (granted leave, sectioned, moved into criminal custody, or released for other reasons). The three lines add up to all exits. Read as exits from detention: Exits from detention that year. Use the Table switch to see every value.

  • Returned from the UK
  • Bailed
  • Granted leave or other
010k20k20102020202505k10k15k20k25k201020202025

Source: Home Office [77]

Observations 2
Since 2015 more people leave detention on bail than are returned

Before 2015 most people leaving detention were returned. In every year since, more have been bailed than returned, though the gap has narrowed. Returns from detention have since recovered: 46% of people leaving detention in the year to June 2026 were returned, against 25% in the year to June 2023. 55 The Home Office says people who claim asylum or raise other claims or appeals may be bailed while the claim is decided. 56

Detention is used less than a decade ago, but is rising

Entries fell from 32,447 in 2015 to 24,480 in 2019, partly after the 2016 Shaw review. 57 2,152 people were held at the end of June 2026, the most since June 2018. 54 In 2019 the National Audit Office found the Home Office released 14,900 (62%) of the detainees it intended to remove. 33

About this data

Full published range: 2010–2025. Every plotted line runs the whole of it – Table Det_04a runs from 2010 to the year ending June 2026; the chart stops at the last complete calendar year. "Bailed" combines the Secretary of State and immigration judge bail columns; "Other" combines "granted leave to enter / remain" and "other". Counts are exits, so one person detained twice in a year is counted twice. In 2021 many exits were small-boat arrivals detained only for initial processing.

Issues raised during detention before removal, 2019

Share of detentions in 2019 in which each issue was raised, for people detained in the UK after immigration offences (not foreign offenders, not people detained on arrival). One person can raise several issues, so the bars add to more than 100%. The rights-based application (the ECHR route proper) is highlighted.

Percent of detentions in which the issue was raised

  1. Asylum claim47%
  2. Medico-legal report19%
  3. Modern slavery referral16%
  4. Rule 35 medical report14%
  5. Further submissions13%
  6. Judicial review9%
  7. Human rights or other rights-based application5%
  8. Disrupted return5%
  9. Appeal3%

Source: Home Office [24]

Observations 3
Late claims and judicial reviews, not human-rights claims, are the most common obstacles

In 2019 people facing removal from detention after immigration offences raised at least one issue in 73% of detentions, and 94% of those were released. 20 The commonest issue was an asylum claim, in 47% of detentions, followed by medical reports and modern slavery referrals. 21 23 Human-rights and other rights-based applications fell from 10% to 5% of detentions between 2017 and 2019, and judicial reviews from 20% to 9%. 22

Most issues raised in detention were eventually refused

Of issues raised in detentions ending in 2017, 12% led to a positive decision or concession, 83% did not, and 5% were still open. 28 When no issue was raised, 67% of detentions ended in return. 26

The 2022 figures are the government's only later update

In January to September 2022, 86% of people who raised rights-based applications in detention were released, and more than 2 in 5 people detained for removal were referred as possible victims of modern slavery. The fuller update has not been published. 30 31

Subtleties
Raised and then released is not caused by

The Home Office warns that it cannot say anyone was released because of an issue, only that they raised it and were later released. 27

The ECHR is under-counted by the "rights-based" row, but not absent from the others

Article 3 bars removal to torture or inhuman or degrading treatment in all circumstances, and that risk is usually argued inside an asylum or protection claim rather than as a separate rights-based application. 48 So the rights-based row is a floor for ECHR-based issues, and the asylum and judicial review rows are not ECHR-free. The data do not say how much of either rests on the ECHR.

Foreign offenders raise different issues

Among foreign offenders leaving detention in 2019, the commonest issue was an appeal (9% of detentions), then Rule 35 reports (8%), judicial reviews (7%) and asylum claims (6%). 29

About this data

Every issue in the Home Office's Table 2a is shown. 2017 and 2018 shares, in the same order: asylum claim 32% and 37%; medico-legal report 0% and 9%; modern slavery referral 3% and 5%; Rule 35 medical report 12% and 15%; further submissions 13% and 14%; judicial review 20% and 15%; rights-based application 10% and 8%; disrupted return 13% and 12%; appeal 6% and 5%. At least one issue was raised in 63%, 67% and 73% of detentions in 2017, 2018 and 2019. The figures come from internal management information. An asylum claim can include an Article 3 risk on return, so the rights-based row is a floor, not a full count, of ECHR-based issues.

Share of detentions ending in return, by issue raised, 2019

For the same 2019 detentions, the share that ended with the person returned from the UK, by issue raised, against detentions in which none of the issues was raised.

Percent of those detentions that ended in return

  1. None of the issues raised67%
  2. Disrupted return25%
  3. Further submissions11%
  4. Judicial review8%
  5. Rule 35 medical report8%
  6. Human rights or other rights-based application7%
  7. Appeal5%
  8. Asylum claim3%
  9. Medico-legal report2%
  10. Modern slavery referral1%

Source: Home Office [25]

About this data

From the Home Office's Table 4a, every row. People released may have been re-detained and returned later, or left voluntarily; this counts only the outcome of that period of detention.

Why foreign offenders were not removed on two Jamaica charter flights, 2016–2017

The most common reasons removals failed on the September 2016 and March 2017 charter flights to Jamaica, which planned 307 removals between them and removed 74.

Failed removals

  1. Fresh asylum claim after removal directions set55
  2. Judicial review lodged after removal directions set35
  3. Further representations; removal deferred26
  4. Not found at enforcement visit20
  5. No enforcement visit, for lack of resources13

Source: Independent Chief Inspector of Borders and Immigration [39]; Independent Chief Inspector of Borders and Immigration [38]

Observations 3
Half of removal directions were cancelled in 2019

The Home Office set 25,700 removal directions in 2019 and cancelled 13,500 (52%), against 11% of removals failing in 2013. 32 11 Immigration Enforcement blamed late or spurious asylum, medical and modern slavery claims; the National Audit Office saw no systematic analysis of why claims were increasing. 34 It listed other barriers: conflict at home, a long-established life in the UK (human-rights grounds), missing identity documents, and no returns agreement — but gave no breakdown by reason. 35

On the two Jamaica charters, fresh asylum claims and judicial reviews led

The two flights planned 144 and 163 removals and removed 42 and 32. Fresh asylum claims after removal directions were set were the commonest reason for failure (55), then judicial reviews (35) and further representations (26). 38 39 Caseworkers believed many late submissions had no merit and aimed to frustrate removal. 37 About a fifth of the failures in the top five reasons were people the Home Office did not find, or did not visit for lack of resources.

Two in three planned foreign-offender removals succeeded

Of 24,289 planned foreign-offender removals in 2014/15–2016/17, 16,517 (68%) succeeded and 7,772 (32%) failed. 36 In a review of 1,653 non-detained cases, almost 80% had at least one barrier to removal, including outstanding claims or missing travel documents; only 194 were judged removable. 40

About this data

The inspectorate published only its five most common reasons, so these do not account for every failed removal, and the residual cannot be derived. Some people from the first flight were planned again for the second and may be counted twice.

Foreign offenders’ appeals against deportation, 2008/09–2020/21

Appeals against deportation

Appeals against deportation lodged by foreign national offenders in each financial year (labelled by the year it starts), how many were allowed at the First-tier Tribunal, and how many were allowed on human-rights grounds only. The July 2012 Article 8 immigration rules, the Immigration Act 2014 (in force from July 2014) and the 2017 Supreme Court judgment that paused "deport first, appeal later" all fall inside this period.

Appeals, by financial year lodged, by financial year in which the appeal was lodged (2008 = 2008/09)

Appeals against deportation lodged by foreign national offenders in each financial year (labelled by the year it starts), how many were allowed at the First-tier Tribunal, and how many were allowed on human-rights grounds only. The July 2012 Article 8 immigration rules, the Immigration Act 2014 (in force from July 2014) and the 2017 Supreme Court judgment that paused "deport first, appeal later" all fall inside this period. Read as appeals against deportation: Appeals, by financial year lodged. Use the Table switch to see every value.

  • Lodged
  • Allowed at First-tier Tribunal
  • Human-Rights GroundsRights under the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), a treaty enforced by a European court. An appeal allowed on these grounds only was not allowed on any other ground.
01k2k2008202005001k1.5k2k2.5k200820102020

Source: Home Office [78]

Observations 3
The 2014 Article 8 reforms cut allowed appeals, then the effect faded

Appeals allowed on human-rights grounds only rose to 337 in 2012/13, fell by roughly three-quarters to 92 in 2015/16 after the Immigration Act 2014, then climbed back to 285 in 2017/18. 41 The 2014 Act raised the bar for offenders' appeals while leaving judges some discretion. 49 The rebound coincides with the 2017 Supreme Court judgment that paused "deport first, appeal later", so the data cannot separate the two. 50

Human-rights wins equal about 3% of offender deportations

From 2015/16 to 2020/21 about 1,000 foreign offenders won appeals on ECHR grounds alone, against 31,400 removed: 3%. 45 The Bonavero Institute's count for April 2016 to June 2021 is 922 against 26,091, or 3.5%, and around 2.5% for Article 8 alone. 43 44 A sample found 70% of human-rights wins rested solely on Article 8. 42

Across all immigration cases, human-rights appeals usually succeed

Across all human-rights immigration appeals, not only deportations, judges allowed 61,000 of 115,000 human-rights appeals from 2015/16 to 2024/25 (53%). 47 These are mostly not removal cases, so they do not measure blocked removals, but they show the ECHR's reach in immigration decisions is wider than offender deportations.

Subtleties
The 3% is appeals won against deportations done, not blocked against attempted

Offenders who never appeal, who win on mixed grounds (around 1,500 more), or who are never pursued because return is impossible are outside the ratio, and some First-tier wins were later overturned. 46 43 The government says some offenders stay on Article 3 grounds, including over healthcare, but publishes no count. 58

About this data

Full published range: 2008–2020. Every plotted line runs the whole of it – A one-off Home Office management-information release, valid at 10 November 2021. It also gives April to June 2021 (81 lodged, 4 allowed, 1 on human-rights grounds only), left off because it is a quarter, not a year. Appeals lodged in later years are more likely still to be undetermined. Upper Tribunal reversals are not reflected. No later figures have been published.

Foreign offenders liable to deportation living in the community, 2012–2026

Offenders in the community

Foreign national offenders subject to deportation action who have finished their sentence and are living in the community rather than in prison or detention, at the end of each quarter.

People at the end of the quarter, by quarter end

Foreign national offenders subject to deportation action who have finished their sentence and are living in the community rather than in prison or detention, at the end of each quarter. Read as offenders in the community: People at the end of the quarter. Dashed segments cross 1 definitional break in the source, explained in Method Changes below this graph. Use the Table switch to see every value.

  • Foreign offenders liable to deportation in the community
2.5k7.5k12.5k17.5k22.5k2012202020262.5k5k7.5k10k12.5k15k17.5k20k22.5k201220202026

Vertical dashed lines mark measurement changes. See method changes.

Source: Home Office [79]

Observations 1
Deportable offenders in the community have grown for a decade

21,294 foreign offenders liable to deportation were living in the community at the end of June 2026, 12% more than a year earlier, with most of the latest rise after the Sentencing Act 2026 widened the duty to deport. 53 The Migration Observatory reads the earlier growth, 36% from the end of 2022 to March 2026, as a sign that removals have not kept pace with prison releases. 52 The government does not publish what share of offenders are deported. 51

Method Changes
2022-12: Non-criteria cases added

Home Office: "These figures include ‘criteria’ cases which meet the legislative criteria for automatic deportation and ‘non-criteria’ cases, which don’t. For non-criteria cases, removal is nevertheless being pursued by the Home Office due to wider considerations. These figures are not directly comparable to those produced historically, as these included criteria cases only." [79]

About this data

Full published range: 2012-03–2026-06. Every plotted line runs the whole of it – FNO_08 gives "criteria" cases (those meeting the automatic-deportation test) from 2012 Q1 to 2022 Q3; FNO_08a gives criteria and non-criteria cases together from 2022 Q4 to 2026 Q2. The line joins the two at the break. Each point is plotted at the last month of its quarter.

Removals a year — the UK record, a proposed target, and the EU and US

Annual removals or returns on each measure. The UK lines are calendar 2025 and 2004 from the Home Office; the target is the Conservative "Removals Force" pledge; the EU figure is all 27 member states' returns to non-EU countries in 2025; the US figure is deportations of people arrested inside the country over 18 months, converted to a yearly rate.

Removals or returns a year

  1. US deportations after interior arrest (yearly rate)200,000
  2. Proposed UK target ("Removals Force")150,000
  3. EU-27 returns to non-EU countries, 2025139,270
  4. UK enforced and voluntary returns, 202539,715
  5. UK enforced returns, 2004 (series high)21,425
  6. UK enforced returns, 20259,908

Source: City AM [60]; Migration Policy Institute [63]; Eurostat [64]

Observations 3
150,000 a year is about 15 times current enforced returns

The Conservative "Removals Force" pledge of 150,000 removals a year is about 15 times the 9,669 enforced returns in the year to June 2026, and well above the highest year of enforced returns in the series (2004). 60 2 It is also more than all 27 EU states returned to non-EU countries in 2025. 64

The pledged budget covers a fraction of that at today's enforced-return cost

The pledge comes with £1.6 billion. 61 At the 2024/25 average of £48,800 per enforced return, that would pay for about a fifth of 150,000 enforced returns; at £4,300 per voluntary return it would cover the target several times over. 14 For scale, 2,152 people were held at the end of June 2026. 54

The US comparison

The US deported about 980,000 people in the first 18 months of the second Trump term, but 300,000 of those followed arrests inside the country; most were border cases. 62 63

About this data

UK figures are from Ret_01 (series source): 9,908 enforced returns and 29,807 voluntary returns in 2025, and 21,425 enforced returns in 2004, the highest in the series. The US figure is MPI's 300,000 interior-arrest deportations between 20 January 2025 and 31 July 2026, divided by 1.5; it excludes border turnarounds and removals of people arrested at the border. The EU figure counts third-country nationals returned to a non-EU country and may count some people more than once. These are different legal categories in different populations: the chart shows the operational scale each system handles, not a rate per resident.

UK–France "one in, one out" pilot: people moved each month, August 2025 – June 2026

People moved each month

Small-boat arrivals returned to France ("out") and people transferred from France to the UK ("in") each month under the UK–France Agreement on the Prevention of Dangerous Journeys, from its start on 6 August 2025. The Home Office said on 30 September 2026 that the pilot was no longer processing new cases.

People that month, by month

Small-boat arrivals returned to France ("out") and people transferred from France to the UK ("in") each month under the UK–France Agreement on the Prevention of Dangerous Journeys, from its start on 6 August 2025. The Home Office said on 30 September 2026 that the pilot was no longer processing new cases. Read as people moved each month: People that month. Use the Table switch to see every value.

  • Returned to France (out)
  • Transferred to the UK (in)
0100200300Oct 2025Jan 2026Apr050100150200250300350Aug 2025SepOctNovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJun

Source: Home Office [80]

Observations 1
The France pilot moved about 4% of arrivals

By 30 June 2026, 1,087 people had been returned to France and 1,117 brought to the UK under the pilot. 65 27,920 people crossed by small boat over the same period, so about 4% were sent back. 66 Monthly returns rose through spring 2026. The Home Office said on 30 September 2026 that the pilot was no longer processing new cases. 67 The Home Secretary put the cost at about £56,000 per return. 68

About this data

Full published range: 2025-08–2026-06. Every plotted line runs the whole of it – Ad hoc release from operational systems, reconciled with the quarterly statistics. "Out" counts completed returns; a person returned twice is counted once. No monthly figures after June 2026 have been published.

Estimates of the population without lawful status, 2017

The two latest estimates, both for 2017 and both made by the residual method. The Home Office makes no official estimate.

People without lawful status

  1. Greater London Authority, central estimateThe Migration Observatory, University of Oxford [69]674,000
  2. Greater London Authority, with UK-born childrenThe Migration Observatory, University of Oxford [69]809,000
  3. Pew, as first publishedThe Migration Observatory, University of Oxford [69]800,000 to 1,200,000
  4. Pew, revised March 2025The Migration Observatory, University of Oxford [69]700,000 to 900,000

Source: The Migration Observatory, University of Oxford [69]

Observations 1
Hundreds of thousands, on estimates now nine years old

The Home Office makes no official estimate of the population without lawful status. 70 The two latest estimates are for 2017, and Pew revised its range down in March 2025. 69 Both use the residual method: the foreign-born population minus an estimate of those here lawfully.

What the nearest measures of the ECHR's weight show, and leave out

No published source counts removals stopped by the ECHR. These are the nearest measures, each of which answers a narrower question.

One row per measure
What it showsWhat it leaves out
Human-rights applications raised in detention, 20195% of detentions, against 47% for asylum claims [21] [22]Article 3 risk on return is argued inside asylum claims, and people never put forward for removal because removal is not possible do not appear
Foreign offenders' appeals won on human-rights grounds aloneAbout 3% of those removed [45]Article 3 risk on return is argued inside asylum claims, and people never put forward for removal because removal is not possible do not appear
People granted status after being told they were liable to removalThe Home Office does not hold this data [17]—
The government's positionSays Article 8 is used to stop removals and cites the 86% release figure, but its impact assessment sets no target for fewer Article 8 grants or successful appeals [30] [59]—

Sources: The Migration Observatory, University of Oxford [17]; Home Office [21]; Home Office [22]; Home Office [30]; House of Commons Library [45]; Home Office [59]

Observations 2
What share of failed removals the ECHR blocks is not measured

No published source counts removals stopped by the ECHR. The Home Office does not hold data on people granted status after being told they were liable to removal. 17 The proxies above each answer a narrower question, and both may understate the ECHR's weight. 21 45

Other obstacles are documented alongside the legal ones

The National Audit Office named conflict at home, missing identity documents and countries without return agreements alongside human-rights grounds. 35 A fifth of failures on the Jamaica charters were people the Home Office did not find or did not visit. 39

Removals from the UK fell through the 2010s, collapsed during the pandemic and have risen each year since 2021, but enforced returns in the year to June 2026 (9,669) were less than half their 2004 level. 2 1 Of the 40,605 returns that year, 76% were voluntary. Asylum-related returns reached 12,568, the highest in a series starting in 2010. 5

No source measures how many failed removals the ECHR blocks. The Home Office says it does not hold data on people granted status after being told they were liable to removal. 17 What exists are proxies: issues raised in detention, cancelled removal directions, failed charter-flight seats, and foreign offenders' appeals won on human-rights grounds. Each is shown below with its limits.

Data still needed

  • The share of failed or abandoned removals stopped by an ECHR-based claim or ruling (Article 3, Article 8 or other), as distinct from asylum claims under the Refugee Convention, judicial reviews on domestic-law grounds, modern slavery referrals, missing travel documents and non-cooperating countries.This is the number the argument about leaving the ECHR turns on, and no source publishes it. The Home Office says it does not hold data on people granted status after being told they are liable to removal, and every figure on this page is a proxy that either undercounts ECHR issues (Article 3 risk hides inside asylum claims) or measures something else.
  • Issues raised by people facing removal from detention, by type and outcome, for 2020 onwards.The only breakdown stops in 2019, with one 2022 figure. The Home Office said in November 2025 that the updated analysis would be published "as soon as possible"; it had not appeared by October 2026.
  • Foreign offenders' deportation appeals allowed on human-rights grounds, with Article 3 and Article 8 counted separately, after June 2021.The only series ends in mid-2021 and splits Article 8 from other grounds only by a sample, so it cannot show whether the courts' approach has changed since.
  • The number of people liable to removal (refused, overstayed or deportable), so that returns can be expressed as a rate.Without a denominator, rising or falling returns cannot be separated from changes in how many people could be removed.
  • A current estimate of the population living in the UK without lawful status.The latest estimates are for 2017, and the Home Office does not make one.
  • Removals by country of nationality against refusals, for the main small-boat nationalities, with the reason return is not possible (no travel documents, no cooperation, risk on return).Would show how much of the gap between refusals and returns is about origin countries rather than UK law.
Sources
  1. Immigration system statistics, year ending June 2026: How many people are returned from the UK?

    Home Office, 2026-08-27 · supports

    “Of the 40,605 returns from the UK in the latest year, three-quarters (76%) returned voluntarily and one-quarter (24%) were enforced by the Home Office. In addition to those returned from the UK, 18,646 were refused entry on arrival and subsequently departed (‘port returns’) (see Section 4).”Hide quote
    Of the 40,605 returns from the UK in the latest year, three-quarters (76%) returned voluntarily and one-quarter (24%) were enforced by the Home Office. In addition to those returned from the UK, 18,646 were refused entry on arrival and subsequently departed (‘port returns’) (see Section 4).
  2. Immigration system statistics, year ending June 2026: How many people are returned from the UK?

    Home Office, 2026-08-27 · supports

    “There were 9,669 enforced returns recorded in YE June 2026, 7% higher than the previous year (9,077). Figure 1 shows that enforced returns have increased steadily following the low number of returns during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021.”Hide quote
    There were 9,669 enforced returns recorded in YE June 2026, 7% higher than the previous year (9,077). Figure 1 shows that enforced returns have increased steadily following the low number of returns during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021.
  3. Immigration system statistics, year ending June 2026: How many people are returned from the UK?

    Home Office, 2026-08-27 · supports

    “In YE June 2026, there were 30,936 voluntary returns, an increase of 9% compared with the YE June 2025. This was partly driven by an increase in asylum-related voluntary returns (up 10%).”Hide quote
    In YE June 2026, there were 30,936 voluntary returns, an increase of 9% compared with the YE June 2025. This was partly driven by an increase in asylum-related voluntary returns (up 10%).
  4. Immigration system statistics, year ending June 2026: How many people are returned from the UK?

    Home Office, 2026-08-27 · supports

    “Returns of FNOs averaged around 5,500 per year during the period from 2010 to 2019. FNO returns reached a peak in 2016 at 6,437, subsequently falling to below 3,000 per year in 2020 to 2021. Since then, returns of FNOs have been gradually increasing, although in the latest year were still 7% below the 2016 peak.”Hide quote
    Returns of FNOs averaged around 5,500 per year during the period from 2010 to 2019. FNO returns reached a peak in 2016 at 6,437, subsequently falling to below 3,000 per year in 2020 to 2021. Since then, returns of FNOs have been gradually increasing, although in the latest year were still 7% below the 2016 peak.
  5. Immigration system statistics, year ending June 2026: How many people are returned from the UK?

    Home Office, 2026-08-27 · supports

    “In the YE June 2026, there were 12,568 asylum-related returns, 14% more than in YE June 2025. Nearly a third (31%) of total enforced and voluntary returns were asylum-related – a proportion that has risen steadily from 15% in 2021. Asylum-related returns in the YE June 2026 are the highest volume in this statistical series (starting YE December 2010).”Hide quote
    In the YE June 2026, there were 12,568 asylum-related returns, 14% more than in YE June 2025. Nearly a third (31%) of total enforced and voluntary returns were asylum-related – a proportion that has risen steadily from 15% in 2021. Asylum-related returns in the YE June 2026 are the highest volume in this statistical series (starting YE December 2010).
  6. Immigration system statistics, year ending June 2026: How many people are returned from the UK?

    Home Office, 2026-08-27 · complicates

    “A total of 9,694 people who arrived on a small boat between 2018 and the YE June 2026 have been returned from the UK. A vast majority of small boat arrivals claim asylum and there will be a period of time for their claim to be assessed, prior to it being known whether they will be subject to return.”Hide quote
    A total of 9,694 people who arrived on a small boat between 2018 and the YE June 2026 have been returned from the UK. A vast majority of small boat arrivals claim asylum and there will be a period of time for their claim to be assessed, prior to it being known whether they will be subject to return.
  7. Immigration system statistics, year ending June 2026: How many people are returned from the UK?

    Home Office, 2026-08-27 · complicates

    “The statistics in this section show the number of returns from the UK. One individual may have been returned more than once in a given period and, if that was the case, would be counted more than once in the statistics.”Hide quote
    The statistics in this section show the number of returns from the UK. One individual may have been returned more than once in a given period and, if that was the case, would be counted more than once in the statistics.
  8. Deportation and returns of unauthorised migrants from the UK

    The Migration Observatory, University of Oxford, 2026-03-31 · supports

    “Around 38,000 people without the right to be in the UK were recorded leaving in 2025 – 9% more than in 2024, and the highest number since 2016. Returns fell sharply in the second half of the 2010s, declined further during the pandemic, then began to recover. However, in 2025 numbers remained slightly lower than a decade before.”Hide quote
    Around 38,000 people without the right to be in the UK were recorded leaving in 2025 – 9% more than in 2024, and the highest number since 2016. Returns fell sharply in the second half of the 2010s, declined further during the pandemic, then began to recover. However, in 2025 numbers remained slightly lower than a decade before.
  9. Deportation and returns of unauthorised migrants from the UK

    The Migration Observatory, University of Oxford, 2026-03-31 · complicates

    “The initial decline in returns in the late 2010s thus seems to have been driven by a combination of resource constraints, increased legal challenges, administrative delays, and fewer people being referred to Immigration Enforcement. The subsequent increase in returns may have resulted from a combination of budget increases and higher immigration.”Hide quote
    The initial decline in returns in the late 2010s thus seems to have been driven by a combination of resource constraints, increased legal challenges, administrative delays, and fewer people being referred to Immigration Enforcement. The subsequent increase in returns may have resulted from a combination of budget increases and higher immigration.
  10. Deportation and returns of unauthorised migrants from the UK

    The Migration Observatory, University of Oxford, 2026-03-31 · complicates

    “Higher enforcement costs and fewer resources available to Immigration Enforcement likely contributed to the fall in returns during the 2010s. Spending on Immigration Enforcement fell by 19% in real terms between 2014/15 and 2020/21 (Figure 2).”Hide quote
    Higher enforcement costs and fewer resources available to Immigration Enforcement likely contributed to the fall in returns during the 2010s. Spending on Immigration Enforcement fell by 19% in real terms between 2014/15 and 2020/21 (Figure 2).
  11. Deportation and returns of unauthorised migrants from the UK

    The Migration Observatory, University of Oxford, 2026-03-31 · supports

    “Legal challenges. An increase in legal challenges to removal is likely to have played a role in the decline of returns during the 2010s, though limited data prevent a definitive assessment. A report from the National Audit Office showed that 52% of enforced return attempts were cancelled in 2019, up from 11% in 2013 – a rise the authors say is “mostly explained” by last-minute asylum claims and legal challenges.”Hide quote
    Legal challenges. An increase in legal challenges to removal is likely to have played a role in the decline of returns during the 2010s, though limited data prevent a definitive assessment. A report from the National Audit Office showed that 52% of enforced return attempts were cancelled in 2019, up from 11% in 2013 – a rise the authors say is “mostly explained” by last-minute asylum claims and legal challenges.
  12. Deportation and returns of unauthorised migrants from the UK

    The Migration Observatory, University of Oxford, 2026-03-31 · complicates

    “Cooperation from origin countries is often essential for returns, particularly to secure travel documents. A 2014/15 inspection report found that the inability to obtain documents was the most common reason officials decided against detaining individuals liable for removal.”Hide quote
    Cooperation from origin countries is often essential for returns, particularly to secure travel documents. A 2014/15 inspection report found that the inability to obtain documents was the most common reason officials decided against detaining individuals liable for removal.
  13. Deportation and returns of unauthorised migrants from the UK

    The Migration Observatory, University of Oxford, 2026-03-31 · complicates

    “A formal deal, however, is neither sufficient nor necessary to ensure a high number of returns. Several studies have found they had little to no effect on overall return rates in the EU. In the UK, many returns are to countries it does not have a formal agreement with, which together accounted for 49% of all returns in 2025.”Hide quote
    A formal deal, however, is neither sufficient nor necessary to ensure a high number of returns. Several studies have found they had little to no effect on overall return rates in the EU. In the UK, many returns are to countries it does not have a formal agreement with, which together accounted for 49% of all returns in 2025.
  14. Deportation and returns of unauthorised migrants from the UK

    The Migration Observatory, University of Oxford, 2026-03-31 · supports

    “The Home Office prefers voluntary returns, partly because they are much cheaper. Enforced returns cost an average of £48,800 in the 2024/25 financial year, compared to £4,300 for a voluntary return.”Hide quote
    The Home Office prefers voluntary returns, partly because they are much cheaper. Enforced returns cost an average of £48,800 in the 2024/25 financial year, compared to £4,300 for a voluntary return.
  15. Deportation and returns of unauthorised migrants from the UK

    The Migration Observatory, University of Oxford, 2026-03-31 · supports

    “In theory, people who are refused asylum and have exhausted all rights of appeal do not have a right to stay in the UK and are liable for removal. However, in recent years many refused asylum seekers were not removed from the UK. Of all asylum applications submitted between 2010 and 2022 which had been refused by the end of 2025, around half had resulted in a return from the UK by this date.”Hide quote
    In theory, people who are refused asylum and have exhausted all rights of appeal do not have a right to stay in the UK and are liable for removal. However, in recent years many refused asylum seekers were not removed from the UK. Of all asylum applications submitted between 2010 and 2022 which had been refused by the end of 2025, around half had resulted in a return from the UK by this date.
  16. Deportation and returns of unauthorised migrants from the UK

    The Migration Observatory, University of Oxford, 2026-03-31 · supports

    “Around 72% of refused asylum seekers who first submitted a claim in 2010 had been returned by the end of 2025. That share falls to 33% among refused asylum seekers who applied in 2018, but increases to 48% among those who applied in 2022.”Hide quote
    Around 72% of refused asylum seekers who first submitted a claim in 2010 had been returned by the end of 2025. That share falls to 33% among refused asylum seekers who applied in 2018, but increases to 48% among those who applied in 2022.
  17. Deportation and returns of unauthorised migrants from the UK

    The Migration Observatory, University of Oxford, 2026-03-31 · supports

    “In response to Freedom of Information requests, the Home Office said it did not hold data on the following: the number of people issued notices of liability to remove who were subsequently granted legal status (e.g., following a human rights claim); the number of foreign national offenders of different nationalities who had been removed vs. not removed after finishing a prison sentence; and the number of people detained ahead of removal (as opposed to detained for initial processing).”Hide quote
    In response to Freedom of Information requests, the Home Office said it did not hold data on the following: the number of people issued notices of liability to remove who were subsequently granted legal status (e.g., following a human rights claim); the number of foreign national offenders of different nationalities who had been removed vs. not removed after finishing a prison sentence; and the number of people detained ahead of removal (as opposed to detained for initial processing).
  18. Restoring Order and Control: A statement on the government’s asylum and returns policy (CP 1418)

    Home Office, 2025-11-17 · supports

    “However, between June 2024 and June 2025, 58,000 people had their asylum claim refused. In the same period, less than 11,000 people were removed from the country.”Hide quote
    However, between June 2024 and June 2025, 58,000 people had their asylum claim refused. In the same period, less than 11,000 people were removed from the country.
  19. Immigration and Asylum Bill: Impact Assessment (HO IA 1045)

    Home Office, 2026-10-12 · supports

    “Between 2021 and 2025, 446,000 UK asylum claims have been made, while 33,000 asylum-related returns have been carried out in the same period.”Hide quote
    Between 2021 and 2025, 446,000 UK asylum claims have been made, while 33,000 asylum-related returns have been carried out in the same period.
  20. Issues raised by people facing return in immigration detention

    Home Office, 2021-07-19 · supports

    “Most people detained following immigration offences were recorded as having raised one or more of the issues in detention (73% in 2019), with the majority (94%) subsequently released.”Hide quote
    Most people detained following immigration offences were recorded as having raised one or more of the issues in detention (73% in 2019), with the majority (94%) subsequently released.
  21. Issues raised by people facing return in immigration detention

    Home Office, 2021-07-19 · supports

    “Asylum applications were the most common issue raised by people detained following immigration offences (during 47% of detentions) and were almost always followed by release (97%).”Hide quote
    Asylum applications were the most common issue raised by people detained following immigration offences (during 47% of detentions) and were almost always followed by release (97%).
  22. Issues raised by people facing return in immigration detention

    Home Office, 2021-07-19 · supports

    “At the same time there has been a decrease in the proportion of detentions during which the person: applied on human rights or other right-based grounds (from 10% to 5%) lodged an appeal (from 6% to 3%) lodged a judicial review (from 20% to 9%) caused a return attempt to fail due to physical disruption (from 13% to 5%).”Hide quote
    At the same time there has been a decrease in the proportion of detentions during which the person: applied on human rights or other right-based grounds (from 10% to 5%) lodged an appeal (from 6% to 3%) lodged a judicial review (from 20% to 9%) caused a return attempt to fail due to physical disruption (from 13% to 5%).
  23. Issues raised by people facing return in immigration detention

    Home Office, 2021-07-19 · supports

    “Between 2017 and 2019, there has also been a rise in the proportion of people in this group who, while in immigration detention, were: referred as a potential victim of modern slavery (from 3% to 16%) the subject of a MLR (from less than 1% to 19%, a rise from fewer than 50 instances in 2017 to over 2,000 in 2019)”Hide quote
    Between 2017 and 2019, there has also been a rise in the proportion of people in this group who, while in immigration detention, were: referred as a potential victim of modern slavery (from 3% to 16%) the subject of a MLR (from less than 1% to 19%, a rise from fewer than 50 instances in 2017 to over 2,000 in 2019)
  24. Issues raised by people facing return in immigration detention

    Home Office, 2021-07-19 · supports

    “Table 2a: Number (and proportion) of detentions in which each issue was raised, by year, for people detained within the UK following immigration offences”Hide quote
    Table 2a: Number (and proportion) of detentions in which each issue was raised, by year, for people detained within the UK following immigration offences
  25. Issues raised by people facing return in immigration detention

    Home Office, 2021-07-19 · supports

    “Table 4a: Number (and proportion) of detentions that resulted in return where each issue was raised, by year, for people detained within the UK following immigration offences”Hide quote
    Table 4a: Number (and proportion) of detentions that resulted in return where each issue was raised, by year, for people detained within the UK following immigration offences
  26. Issues raised by people facing return in immigration detention

    Home Office, 2021-07-19 · supports

    “Where none of these issues were raised, detention generally ended with the person being returned to another country (67%), and most of these people returned within 28 days of entering detention (88%).”Hide quote
    Where none of these issues were raised, detention generally ended with the person being returned to another country (67%), and most of these people returned within 28 days of entering detention (88%).
  27. Issues raised by people facing return in immigration detention

    Home Office, 2021-07-19 · complicates

    “Reasons for release can be complicated and may involve multiple factors. As a result, we cannot say that someone raised an issue and was released as a consequence, only that they raised the issue and were subsequently released.”Hide quote
    Reasons for release can be complicated and may involve multiple factors. As a result, we cannot say that someone raised an issue and was released as a consequence, only that they raised the issue and were subsequently released.
  28. Issues raised by people facing return in immigration detention

    Home Office, 2021-07-19 · supports

    “Looking back at issues raised during detentions ending in 2017 for immigration offenders from the community, 12% resulted in a positive decision for the individual or some form of concession being made, 83% did not result in a positive decision, and 5% are ongoing.”Hide quote
    Looking back at issues raised during detentions ending in 2017 for immigration offenders from the community, 12% resulted in a positive decision for the individual or some form of concession being made, 83% did not result in a positive decision, and 5% are ongoing.
  29. Issues raised by people facing return in immigration detention

    Home Office, 2021-07-19 · complicates

    “For FNOs who left detention in 2019, the most common issue raised was an appeal (536 instances, 9% of detentions). Rule 35 reports featured in 8% of detentions (458 instances), judicial reviews in 7% of detentions (397 instances), and asylum claims were made in 6% of detentions (335 instances).”Hide quote
    For FNOs who left detention in 2019, the most common issue raised was an appeal (536 instances, 9% of detentions). Rule 35 reports featured in 8% of detentions (458 instances), judicial reviews in 7% of detentions (397 instances), and asylum claims were made in 6% of detentions (335 instances).
  30. Additional statistics referred to in the asylum policy statement

    Home Office, 2025-11-21 · supports

    “Article 8 rights are also used to stop the removal of those who are living here illegally. In January to September 2022, 86% of people who raised rights-based applications, while in detention awaiting removal, were released. The Home Office published a research report in March 2021 looking at the issues raised by people facing return in immigration detention. Further analysis using data up to 2022 has been produced, and the figure above is taken from this. The full updated analysis will be published on GOV.UK as soon as possible.”Hide quote
    Article 8 rights are also used to stop the removal of those who are living here illegally. In January to September 2022, 86% of people who raised rights-based applications, while in detention awaiting removal, were released. The Home Office published a research report in March 2021 looking at the issues raised by people facing return in immigration detention. Further analysis using data up to 2022 has been produced, and the figure above is taken from this. The full updated analysis will be published on GOV.UK as soon as possible.
  31. Additional statistics referred to in the asylum policy statement

    Home Office, 2025-11-21 · supports

    “More than 2 in 5 people detained for removal between January 2022 and September 2022, were referred as potential victims of modern slavery.”Hide quote
    More than 2 in 5 people detained for removal between January 2022 and September 2022, were referred as potential victims of modern slavery.
  32. Immigration enforcement (HC 110, Session 2019–2021)

    National Audit Office, 2020-06-17 · supports

    “However, our analysis of the available data suggests that in the 12 months to the end of December 2019, the Department set 25,700 removal directions and cancelled 13,500 (52%) of these.”Hide quote
    However, our analysis of the available data suggests that in the 12 months to the end of December 2019, the Department set 25,700 removal directions and cancelled 13,500 (52%) of these.
  33. Immigration enforcement (HC 110, Session 2019–2021)

    National Audit Office, 2020-06-17 · supports

    “In the 12 months to the end of December 2019 it released 14,900 (62%) of the detainees whom it intended to remove from the country”Hide quote
    In the 12 months to the end of December 2019 it released 14,900 (62%) of the detainees whom it intended to remove from the country
  34. Immigration enforcement (HC 110, Session 2019–2021)

    National Audit Office, 2020-06-17 · complicates

    “Immigration Enforcement tells us that many of the reasons that returns may not happen as planned are outside its control. For example, it cites an increase in individuals making late or spurious claims for asylum while in detention, claiming for medical reasons or that they are victims of modern slavery. It believes many of these claims are used to delay removal but noted in 2019 that it did not have a strategy across the work of Immigration Enforcement and the rest of the Department to mitigate the abuse or to tackle the backlogs being caused by associated delaying tactics. We have not seen any systematic analysis designed to help the Department understand why claims are increasing, or to rule out if Immigration Enforcement’s own actions might have contributed to the increase.”Hide quote
    Immigration Enforcement tells us that many of the reasons that returns may not happen as planned are outside its control. For example, it cites an increase in individuals making late or spurious claims for asylum while in detention, claiming for medical reasons or that they are victims of modern slavery. It believes many of these claims are used to delay removal but noted in 2019 that it did not have a strategy across the work of Immigration Enforcement and the rest of the Department to mitigate the abuse or to tackle the backlogs being caused by associated delaying tactics. We have not seen any systematic analysis designed to help the Department understand why claims are increasing, or to rule out if Immigration Enforcement’s own actions might have contributed to the increase.
  35. Immigration enforcement (HC 110, Session 2019–2021)

    National Audit Office, 2020-06-17 · complicates

    “There are many reasons why the Department cannot return someone to their country of origin. It cannot remove some individuals on humanitarian grounds, because their home is in an area of conflict or because their personal circumstances would place them in danger in their own country. If someone has been in the UK for some time, it is likely they have established a life within the country and are therefore harder to remove on Human Rights grounds. The Department may also have practical and logistical reasons for being unable to remove individuals, for example because the individual does not have identity documentation or because the Department does not have a return agreement with a country.”Hide quote
    There are many reasons why the Department cannot return someone to their country of origin. It cannot remove some individuals on humanitarian grounds, because their home is in an area of conflict or because their personal circumstances would place them in danger in their own country. If someone has been in the UK for some time, it is likely they have established a life within the country and are therefore harder to remove on Human Rights grounds. The Department may also have practical and logistical reasons for being unable to remove individuals, for example because the individual does not have identity documentation or because the Department does not have a return agreement with a country.
  36. An inspection of the Home Office’s management of non-detained foreign national offenders

    Independent Chief Inspector of Borders and Immigration, 2017-11 · supports

    “Figure 6: Outcome of planned FNO removals 2014/15 to 2016/17 [...] Total 24,289 16,517 (68%) 7,772 (32%)”Hide quote
    Figure 6: Outcome of planned FNO removals 2014/15 to 2016/17 [...] Total 24,289 16,517 (68%) 7,772 (32%)
  37. An inspection of the Home Office’s management of non-detained foreign national offenders

    Independent Chief Inspector of Borders and Immigration, 2017-11 · supports

    “During focus groups and interviews, CC caseworkers and managers told inspectors that a significant number of the FNOs, for whom removal directions were set, were not removed. This was because the FNO submitted a fresh asylum claim, made further representations, or lodged a Judicial Review, after the removal directions had been set. Often these submissions were received shortly before, sometimes on, the planned removal date, and CC believed that they often had no merit and were made with the sole purpose of frustrating the removals process.”Hide quote
    During focus groups and interviews, CC caseworkers and managers told inspectors that a significant number of the FNOs, for whom removal directions were set, were not removed. This was because the FNO submitted a fresh asylum claim, made further representations, or lodged a Judicial Review, after the removal directions had been set. Often these submissions were received shortly before, sometimes on, the planned removal date, and CC believed that they often had no merit and were made with the sole purpose of frustrating the removals process.
  38. An inspection of the Home Office’s management of non-detained foreign national offenders

    Independent Chief Inspector of Borders and Immigration, 2017-11 · supports

    “Figure 7: Jamaica charter flights – Planned FNO removals and numbers successfully removed Date Planned removals FNOs removed September 2016 144 42 March 2017 163 32”Hide quote
    Figure 7: Jamaica charter flights – Planned FNO removals and numbers successfully removed Date Planned removals FNOs removed September 2016 144 42 March 2017 163 32
  39. An inspection of the Home Office’s management of non-detained foreign national offenders

    Independent Chief Inspector of Borders and Immigration, 2017-11 · supports

    “Figure 8: Most common reasons for failed removals on Jamaica charter flights in September 2016 and March 2017”Hide quote
    Figure 8: Most common reasons for failed removals on Jamaica charter flights in September 2016 and March 2017
  40. An inspection of the Home Office’s management of non-detained foreign national offenders

    Independent Chief Inspector of Borders and Immigration, 2017-11 · supports

    “The review of case progress showed that almost 80% of the 1,653 cases had one or more barriers to removal. Only 194 were considered to be ‘removable’.”Hide quote
    The review of case progress showed that almost 80% of the 1,653 cases had one or more barriers to removal. Only 194 were considered to be ‘removable’.
  41. Statistical note: FNO appeals lodged and allowed on human rights grounds, 2008 to 2021

    Home Office, 2022-02-24 · supports

    “Home Office management information shows that, from April 2008 to June 2021, 21,521 appeals against deportation were lodged by FNOs, ranging from around 1,300 to 2,220 per year, with a reduction towards the end of the period linked to impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. Of the appeals that have been determined, 6,042 FNOs had their deportation appeal allowed at the First Tier Tribunal, with around 40% (2,392) of them doing so on Human Rights grounds.”Hide quote
    Home Office management information shows that, from April 2008 to June 2021, 21,521 appeals against deportation were lodged by FNOs, ranging from around 1,300 to 2,220 per year, with a reduction towards the end of the period linked to impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. Of the appeals that have been determined, 6,042 FNOs had their deportation appeal allowed at the First Tier Tribunal, with around 40% (2,392) of them doing so on Human Rights grounds.
  42. Statistical note: FNO appeals lodged and allowed on human rights grounds, 2008 to 2021

    Home Office, 2022-02-24 · supports

    “In the period 1 April 2016 to 8 November 2021, of 1,011 appeals against deportation by FNOs that were allowed on Human Rights grounds at First Tier Tribunal, an estimated 70% were allowed solely on Article 8 grounds.”Hide quote
    In the period 1 April 2016 to 8 November 2021, of 1,011 appeals against deportation by FNOs that were allowed on Human Rights grounds at First Tier Tribunal, an estimated 70% were allowed solely on Article 8 grounds.
  43. The European Convention on Human Rights and Immigration Control in the UK: Informing the Public Debate (Bonavero Report 3/2025)

    Bonavero Institute of Human Rights, University of Oxford, 2025-09-04 · supports

    “During this roughly five year period, 922 foreign national offenders successfully challenged their deportation on human rights grounds in the First-tier Tribunal. During the same period, 26,091 foreign national offenders were deported. In other words, the number of human rights-based appeals allowed was 3.5% of the number of deportations. Again, this figure may be an overestimate since some of these First-tier Tribunal appeals might have been later overturned by the Upper Tribunal.”Hide quote
    During this roughly five year period, 922 foreign national offenders successfully challenged their deportation on human rights grounds in the First-tier Tribunal. During the same period, 26,091 foreign national offenders were deported. In other words, the number of human rights-based appeals allowed was 3.5% of the number of deportations. Again, this figure may be an overestimate since some of these First-tier Tribunal appeals might have been later overturned by the Upper Tribunal.
  44. The European Convention on Human Rights and Immigration Control in the UK: Informing the Public Debate (Bonavero Report 3/2025)

    Bonavero Institute of Human Rights, University of Oxford, 2025-09-04 · supports

    “This number remains very small in comparison to the number of foreign national offenders who were deported within the same time period: around 2.5%.”Hide quote
    This number remains very small in comparison to the number of foreign national offenders who were deported within the same time period: around 2.5%.
  45. Immigration and the ECHR (CBP-10376)

    House of Commons Library, 2025-10-27 · supports

    “In the same 2015/16 to 2020/21 period, the Home Office removed 31,400 foreign national offenders from the UK. The 1,000 foreign criminals able to block deportation on ECHR grounds alone represent 3% of that figure.”Hide quote
    In the same 2015/16 to 2020/21 period, the Home Office removed 31,400 foreign national offenders from the UK. The 1,000 foreign criminals able to block deportation on ECHR grounds alone represent 3% of that figure.
  46. Immigration and the ECHR (CBP-10376)

    House of Commons Library, 2025-10-27 · complicates

    “From 2015/16 to 2020/21, the Home Office win rate in all First-tier Tribunal appeals against criminal deportation was 70% (5,900 out of 8,400). Of the appeals won by the person contesting deportation, around 1,000 were successful on ECHR grounds only, although some of the other 1,500 appeals won by migrants may have been a mix of ECHR and non-ECHR reasons.”Hide quote
    From 2015/16 to 2020/21, the Home Office win rate in all First-tier Tribunal appeals against criminal deportation was 70% (5,900 out of 8,400). Of the appeals won by the person contesting deportation, around 1,000 were successful on ECHR grounds only, although some of the other 1,500 appeals won by migrants may have been a mix of ECHR and non-ECHR reasons.
  47. Immigration and the ECHR (CBP-10376)

    House of Commons Library, 2025-10-27 · complicates

    “From 2015/16 to 2024/25, immigration judges granted 61,000 out of the 115,000 human rights appeals brought against the Home Office (53%).”Hide quote
    From 2015/16 to 2024/25, immigration judges granted 61,000 out of the 115,000 human rights appeals brought against the Home Office (53%).
  48. Immigration and the ECHR (CBP-10376)

    House of Commons Library, 2025-10-27 · complicates

    “Article 3 prohibits torture and inhuman or degrading treatment. If someone would experience treatment reaching this threshold, as interpreted by the court, they cannot be removed under any circumstances.”Hide quote
    Article 3 prohibits torture and inhuman or degrading treatment. If someone would experience treatment reaching this threshold, as interpreted by the court, they cannot be removed under any circumstances.
  49. Immigration and the ECHR (CBP-10376)

    House of Commons Library, 2025-10-27 · supports

    “In cases where the person has committed a criminal offence, legislation passed in 2014 has raised the bar for an appeal to succeed, although British judges still retain some discretion to block deportation in compelling cases.”Hide quote
    In cases where the person has committed a criminal offence, legislation passed in 2014 has raised the bar for an appeal to succeed, although British judges still retain some discretion to block deportation in compelling cases.
  50. Deportation of foreign national offenders (CBP-8062)

    House of Commons Library, 2024-08-02 · complicates

    “In 2017, the Supreme Court held that this obstructed appellants’ ability to effectively prepare and present their appeal. It highlighted the practical difficulties, at that time, of giving evidence from abroad by video link. Certifying cases when the resulting appeal would not be fair and effective would be unlawful. As a result of the judgment, the Home Office paused the ‘deport first, appeal later’ policy. Six years later, in June 2023, Home Secretary Suella Braverman restarted it for people being deported to countries where appropriate video link facilities are available.”Hide quote
    In 2017, the Supreme Court held that this obstructed appellants’ ability to effectively prepare and present their appeal. It highlighted the practical difficulties, at that time, of giving evidence from abroad by video link. Certifying cases when the resulting appeal would not be fair and effective would be unlawful. As a result of the judgment, the Home Office paused the ‘deport first, appeal later’ policy. Six years later, in June 2023, Home Secretary Suella Braverman restarted it for people being deported to countries where appropriate video link facilities are available.
  51. Migrants and crime in the UK

    The Migration Observatory, University of Oxford, 2026-08-18 · complicates

    “The government does not publish data on either the proportion of FNOs removed or the status of those removed. However, available figures show that the number of FNO removals declined between 2017 and 2021. The Home Office has attributed this fall to several factors, including a 2017 Supreme Court judgement that prevented FNOs from being returned before appeals had been reviewed by the courts, a 2019 legal challenge that led to charter flights being suspended, and removal restrictions implemented during the pandemic.”Hide quote
    The government does not publish data on either the proportion of FNOs removed or the status of those removed. However, available figures show that the number of FNO removals declined between 2017 and 2021. The Home Office has attributed this fall to several factors, including a 2017 Supreme Court judgement that prevented FNOs from being returned before appeals had been reviewed by the courts, a 2019 legal challenge that led to charter flights being suspended, and removal restrictions implemented during the pandemic.
  52. Migrants and crime in the UK

    The Migration Observatory, University of Oxford, 2026-08-18 · supports

    “One indication that FNO removals may not have kept pace with prison releases is that the number of deportable offenders living in the community has risen (i.e., people who were neither in prison nor immigration detention, and had not been granted the right to remain in the UK long term on human rights or other grounds) (Figure 10). The size of this group grew by 36% from the end of 2022 to March 2026, equivalent to 1,600 people per year.”Hide quote
    One indication that FNO removals may not have kept pace with prison releases is that the number of deportable offenders living in the community has risen (i.e., people who were neither in prison nor immigration detention, and had not been granted the right to remain in the UK long term on human rights or other grounds) (Figure 10). The size of this group grew by 36% from the end of 2022 to March 2026, equivalent to 1,600 people per year.
  53. Immigration system statistics, year ending June 2026: How many people are detained under immigration powers in the UK?

    Home Office, 2026-08-27 · supports

    “The latest statistics on ‘FNOs in the Community’ show there were 21,294 FNOs subject to deportation being monitored in the community at the end of June 2026, which is an increase of 12% from end June 2025 (18,993), and an increase of 6% from end March 2026 (20,027). The substantial increase since last year mainly occurred since March 2026, coinciding with changes introduced through the Sentencing Act 2026.”Hide quote
    The latest statistics on ‘FNOs in the Community’ show there were 21,294 FNOs subject to deportation being monitored in the community at the end of June 2026, which is an increase of 12% from end June 2025 (18,993), and an increase of 6% from end March 2026 (20,027). The substantial increase since last year mainly occurred since March 2026, coinciding with changes introduced through the Sentencing Act 2026.
  54. Immigration system statistics, year ending June 2026: How many people are detained under immigration powers in the UK?

    Home Office, 2026-08-27 · supports

    “There were 2,152 people being held in detention (at an immigration detention facility or in prisons under immigration powers) at the end of June 2026, 19% more than on 30 June 2025. This is the highest number in detention since end June 2018.”Hide quote
    There were 2,152 people being held in detention (at an immigration detention facility or in prisons under immigration powers) at the end of June 2026, 19% more than on 30 June 2025. This is the highest number in detention since end June 2018.
  55. Immigration system statistics, year ending June 2026: How many people are detained under immigration powers in the UK?

    Home Office, 2026-08-27 · supports

    “Just under half (46%) of people leaving detention in the YE June 2026 were returned from the UK, up slightly compared to the previous year (44%), and nearly double the proportion seen in the YE June 2023 (25%).”Hide quote
    Just under half (46%) of people leaving detention in the YE June 2026 were returned from the UK, up slightly compared to the previous year (44%), and nearly double the proportion seen in the YE June 2023 (25%).
  56. Immigration system statistics, year ending June 2026: How many people are detained under immigration powers in the UK?

    Home Office, 2026-08-27 · complicates

    “Detained individuals who claim asylum, or raise other claims (for example, modern slavery or human trafficking) or appeals which prevent progress of their removal, may be granted bail into the community. While on bail, individuals are subject to conditions while their claims are concluded. If a claim is refused, the individual may depart the country voluntarily or re-enter detention if required to facilitate enforced removal.”Hide quote
    Detained individuals who claim asylum, or raise other claims (for example, modern slavery or human trafficking) or appeals which prevent progress of their removal, may be granted bail into the community. While on bail, individuals are subject to conditions while their claims are concluded. If a claim is refused, the individual may depart the country voluntarily or re-enter detention if required to facilitate enforced removal.
  57. Immigration system statistics, year ending June 2026: How many people are detained under immigration powers in the UK?

    Home Office, 2026-08-27 · complicates

    “People entering detention fell from 32,447 in 2015 to 24,480 in 2019 partly due to changes in the use of detention and greater use of alternatives as a response to the 2016 Stephen Shaw review of detention.”Hide quote
    People entering detention fell from 32,447 in 2015 to 24,480 in 2019 partly due to changes in the use of detention and greater use of alternatives as a response to the 2016 Stephen Shaw review of detention.
  58. Restoring Order and Control: A statement on the government’s asylum and returns policy (CP 1418)

    Home Office, 2025-11-17 · complicates

    “As a consequence, we see examples of foreign national offenders who are being allowed to stay in the UK on the basis of an Article 3 protection claim, despite committing serious criminal offences in the UK. Others have blocked a deportation because their healthcare needs, including mental healthcare, cannot be fully met in their country of origin.”Hide quote
    As a consequence, we see examples of foreign national offenders who are being allowed to stay in the UK on the basis of an Article 3 protection claim, despite committing serious criminal offences in the UK. Others have blocked a deportation because their healthcare needs, including mental healthcare, cannot be fully met in their country of origin.
  59. Immigration and Asylum Bill: Impact Assessment (HO IA 1045)

    Home Office, 2026-10-12 · complicates

    “It would not be appropriate to set a fixed target for reducing Article 8 grants, successful appeals or the number of people granted leave.”Hide quote
    It would not be appropriate to set a fixed target for reducing Article 8 grants, successful appeals or the number of people granted leave.
  60. Tories pledge creation of US-style deportations force

    City AM, 2025-10-05 · supports

    “The Tories will pledge to create a new "Removals Force" tasked with deporting 150,000 people a year”Hide quote
    The Tories will pledge to create a new "Removals Force" tasked with deporting 150,000 people a year
  61. Tories pledge creation of US-style deportations force

    City AM, 2025-10-05 · supports

    “Tory plans announced on Sunday would see the Removals Force given £1.6 billion”Hide quote
    Tory plans announced on Sunday would see the Removals Force given £1.6 billion
  62. U.S. Deportations and “Self-Deportations” in the First 18 Months of the Second Trump Term

    Migration Policy Institute, 2026-10 · complicates

    “DHS (ICE and CBP combined) completed about 980,000 deportations, a figure in line with the department’s public statements. On an annual basis, total deportations are up from the Biden and first Trump administrations but remain well below the levels routinely observed in the early 2000s.”Hide quote
    DHS (ICE and CBP combined) completed about 980,000 deportations, a figure in line with the department’s public statements. On an annual basis, total deportations are up from the Biden and first Trump administrations but remain well below the levels routinely observed in the early 2000s.
  63. U.S. Deportations and “Self-Deportations” in the First 18 Months of the Second Trump Term

    Migration Policy Institute, 2026-10 · complicates

    “The other 31 percent of deportations (300,000) were of immigrants initially arrested within the United States—in other words, individuals likely to have some years of residence in U.S. communities.”Hide quote
    The other 31 percent of deportations (300,000) were of immigrants initially arrested within the United States—in other words, individuals likely to have some years of residence in U.S. communities.
  64. Third country nationals returned following an order to leave - annual data (rounded) (migr_eirtn)

    Eurostat, 2026-09-25 · complicates

    “Third country nationals returned following an order to leave - annual data (rounded)”Hide quote
    Third country nationals returned following an order to leave - annual data (rounded)
  65. Transfers into and returns from the United Kingdom under the UK-France Agreement on the Prevention of Dangerous Journeys between 6 August 2025 and 30 June 2026

    Home Office, 2026-07-16 · supports

    “As of 30 June 2026, there were 1,117 individuals transferred to the UK and 1,087 individuals returned to France under the agreement.”Hide quote
    As of 30 June 2026, there were 1,117 individuals transferred to the UK and 1,087 individuals returned to France under the agreement.
  66. UK ends 'one in, one out' migrant returns deal with France

    Euronews, 2026-09-30 · supports

    “The most recent Home Office figures show that 1,087 people were returned to France between 4 August 2025 and 30 June 2026, while 1,117 were transferred to the UK under the scheme. Over the same period, 27,920 migrants arrived in the UK on small boats, meaning only about 4% of arrivals were sent back.”Hide quote
    The most recent Home Office figures show that 1,087 people were returned to France between 4 August 2025 and 30 June 2026, while 1,117 were transferred to the UK under the scheme. Over the same period, 27,920 migrants arrived in the UK on small boats, meaning only about 4% of arrivals were sent back.
  67. UK ends 'one in, one out' migrant returns deal with France

    Euronews, 2026-09-30 · supports

    “"The government's pilot with France to remove asylum seekers in exchange for an equal number of legal migrants is no longer processing new cases," the Home Office said, confirming the end of the so-called "one in, one out" deal, which was launched in August last year and was due to expire on Thursday.”Hide quote
    "The government's pilot with France to remove asylum seekers in exchange for an equal number of legal migrants is no longer processing new cases," the Home Office said, confirming the end of the so-called "one in, one out" deal, which was launched in August last year and was due to expire on Thursday.
  68. UK ends 'one in, one out' migrant returns deal with France

    Euronews, 2026-09-30 · complicates

    “Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood told MPs on 15 September that it cost the UK taxpayer an average of about £56,000 (€65,500) per migrant to return them.”Hide quote
    Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood told MPs on 15 September that it cost the UK taxpayer an average of about £56,000 (€65,500) per migrant to return them.
  69. Unauthorised migration in the UK

    The Migration Observatory, University of Oxford, 2026-07-28 · supports

    “The two most recent estimates are for 2017, with both putting the figure in the high hundreds of thousands. They were separately produced by the Pew Research Center and the Greater London Authority, both using the residual method (see Understanding the Evidence). The GLA’s central estimate stood at 674,000, going up to 809,000 when including UK-born children of unauthorised migrants. The Pew study originally suggested a range of 800,000 to 1.2 million unauthorised residents in the UK, but this was retracted in March 2025 and revised down to between 700,000 and 900,000.”Hide quote
    The two most recent estimates are for 2017, with both putting the figure in the high hundreds of thousands. They were separately produced by the Pew Research Center and the Greater London Authority, both using the residual method (see Understanding the Evidence). The GLA’s central estimate stood at 674,000, going up to 809,000 when including UK-born children of unauthorised migrants. The Pew study originally suggested a range of 800,000 to 1.2 million unauthorised residents in the UK, but this was retracted in March 2025 and revised down to between 700,000 and 900,000.
  70. Unauthorised migration in the UK

    The Migration Observatory, University of Oxford, 2026-07-28 · supports

    “The Home Office has stated that “It is not possible to know the exact number of people currently resident in the UK without permission, nor the total number of people who enter the UK irregularly, and so we do not seek to make any official estimates of the illegal population.””Hide quote
    The Home Office has stated that “It is not possible to know the exact number of people currently resident in the UK without permission, nor the total number of people who enter the UK irregularly, and so we do not seek to make any official estimates of the illegal population.”
  71. Unauthorised migration in the UK

    The Migration Observatory, University of Oxford, 2026-07-28 · supports

    “Between 2010 and 2024, 177,000 people applied for asylum but had been refused protection after appeal, as of January 2026. Another 85,000 people had their application withdrawn. Of these, around 69,000 were recorded as having left the UK via enforced or voluntary return by January 2026. This shows that 193,000 people had not been recorded as having left the UK after a refused or withdrawn asylum application submitted between 2010 and 2024.”Hide quote
    Between 2010 and 2024, 177,000 people applied for asylum but had been refused protection after appeal, as of January 2026. Another 85,000 people had their application withdrawn. Of these, around 69,000 were recorded as having left the UK via enforced or voluntary return by January 2026. This shows that 193,000 people had not been recorded as having left the UK after a refused or withdrawn asylum application submitted between 2010 and 2024.
  72. Unauthorised migration in the UK

    The Migration Observatory, University of Oxford, 2026-07-28 · complicates

    “Some departures will not have been recorded for reasons other than overstaying, such as because the asylum applicant has been granted legal residence or has no entry record against which their departure can be matched. This includes people who left the UK via Ireland. Therefore, these counts represent the upper bound of the number of asylum seekers who have become unauthorised migrants in the UK.”Hide quote
    Some departures will not have been recorded for reasons other than overstaying, such as because the asylum applicant has been granted legal residence or has no entry record against which their departure can be matched. This includes people who left the UK via Ireland. Therefore, these counts represent the upper bound of the number of asylum seekers who have become unauthorised migrants in the UK.
  73. Returns summary tables, year ending June 2026 (Ret_01)

    Home Office, 2026-08-27 · supports

    “Ret_01: Returns from the UK, by type of return, year ending December 2004 to year ending June 2026”Hide quote
    Ret_01: Returns from the UK, by type of return, year ending December 2004 to year ending June 2026
  74. Returns summary tables, year ending June 2026 (Ret_02a and Ret_05)

    Home Office, 2026-08-27 · supports

    “Ret_02a: Returns of foreign national offenders from the UK, year ending December 2010 to year ending June 2026”Hide quote
    Ret_02a: Returns of foreign national offenders from the UK, year ending December 2010 to year ending June 2026
  75. Returns summary tables, year ending June 2026 (Ret_05)

    Home Office, 2026-08-27 · supports

    “Ret_05: Returns from the UK, by type of return, and asylum and non-asylum, year ending December 2010 to year ending June 2026”Hide quote
    Ret_05: Returns from the UK, by type of return, and asylum and non-asylum, year ending December 2010 to year ending June 2026
  76. Outcome analysis of asylum claims detailed dataset, year ending June 2026 (Asy_D04)

    Home Office, 2026-08-27 · supports

    “Asy_D04: Outcome analysis of asylum claims, 2007-2025 - dataset”Hide quote
    Asy_D04: Outcome analysis of asylum claims, 2007-2025 - dataset
  77. Immigration detention summary tables, year ending June 2026 (Det_04a)

    Home Office, 2026-08-27 · supports

    “Det_04a: Number of occurrences of people leaving immigration detention, by reason for leaving, year ending December 2010 to year ending June 2026”Hide quote
    Det_04a: Number of occurrences of people leaving immigration detention, by reason for leaving, year ending December 2010 to year ending June 2026
  78. Statistical note: FNO appeals lodged and allowed on human rights grounds, 2008 to 2021

    Home Office, 2022-02-24 · supports

    “Appeal Lodged Financial Year | Number of Appeals Lodged | of which Number of Appeals Allowed | of which Number of Appeals Allowed, Human Rights grounds only”Hide quote
    Appeal Lodged Financial Year | Number of Appeals Lodged | of which Number of Appeals Allowed | of which Number of Appeals Allowed, Human Rights grounds only
  79. Immigration Enforcement transparency data, Q2 2026 (FNO_08 and FNO_08a)

    Home Office, 2026-08-27 · supports

    “FNO_08: FNOs subject to deportation action living in the community and the length of time since the end of their custodial sentence”Hide quote
    FNO_08: FNOs subject to deportation action living in the community and the length of time since the end of their custodial sentence
  80. Transfers into and returns from the United Kingdom under the UK-France Agreement on the Prevention of Dangerous Journeys between 6 August 2025 and 30 June 2026

    Home Office, 2026-07-16 · supports

    “Table 1: Number of individuals per month who have been transferred to the UK (‘IN’) and returned to France (‘OUT’) under the UK–France Agreement on the Prevention of Dangerous Journeys, August 2025 to June 2026”Hide quote
    Table 1: Number of individuals per month who have been transferred to the UK (‘IN’) and returned to France (‘OUT’) under the UK–France Agreement on the Prevention of Dangerous Journeys, August 2025 to June 2026