Asylum Claims and Decisions in the UK and Europe

In the YE June 2026, 85,891 people claimed asylum in the UK, 21% fewer than in the previous year.

Figure 1 shows an initial peak in the number of people claiming asylum in the UK of around 103,000 in the YE December 2002. After falling from its peak, the number of people claiming asylum generally ranged between 22,000 and 46,000 per year until 2021. After this, claims increased rapidly, surpassing the 2002 peak and reaching a high of 109,662 in the YE September 2025. Although claims have fallen since then, they remain above levels seen between 2003 and 2022.

In 2024, around 105,000 people claimed asylum in the UK, the highest number since records began in 1979. This surpassed the previous record of around 103,000 people in 2002, which was driven by wars in Somalia, Afghanistan, and Iraq (Figure 1). In 2025, 101,000 people claimed asylum in the UK, which continued to be high by historical standards.

Changes over time in the number of people claiming asylum in the UK are driven in large part by geopolitical events, as well as changes in entry routes, networks, and, to some extent, policy. For example, the spike in people who came to the UK to seek asylum from 1998 to 2002 comprised mainly nationals of Somalia, Afghanistan, Iraq, and the former Yugoslavia, which were then sites of war (Figure 1). From 2022 onwards, the rise in asylum claims has similarly been shaped by global events, including ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and rising instability in the Horn of Africa and South Asia. Note that not all people from unstable or conflict-prone countries qualify for asylum.

However, illegal entry routes (the majority of which are small boat arrivals) remain the most common route for people claiming asylum in the UK, accounting for just over half (52%) of asylum seekers.

41% (34,999) of asylum seekers held a visa or other leave prior to claiming, including those who held an Electronic Travel Authorization (ETA)

In 2025, there were 1.5 first-time asylum applicants per 1 000 people in the EU. Greece recorded the highest rate of first-time asylum applicants, with 5.3 applicants per 1 000 people. Cyprus and Spain followed with 2.9 applicants each, ahead of Luxembourg with 2.6 and Ireland with 2.4.

In 2025, 669 400 first-time asylum applicants (non-EU citizens) applied for international protection in EU countries, a decrease of 27% compared with 2024 (912 400).

Compared with other European countries, the UK received the fifth largest number of asylum seekers in the YE March 2026 (96,027), and the sixteenth largest intake when measured ‘per head of population’.

In 2025, the UK received around 101,000 asylum applicants, the 5th-highest among the EU+ (the EU-27 plus Switzerland and the three EEA countries: Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Norway). When adjusted for population size, it received the 12th-highest number of applications: 15 per 10,000 residents.

Figure 2 shows that the grant rate was 38% in YE June 2026. This was lower than the grant rate of 48% in YE June 2025, and substantially below the peak grant rate of 77% in the YE September 2022.

The overall grant rate can vary for a number of reasons, including the mix of nationalities claiming asylum, the objective country situation at the date of decision, and the protection needs of those who claim asylum in the UK. It can also be affected by operational resourcing and policy decisions, such as changes to the types of cases prioritised for decisions.

Among the top 10 nationalities receiving initial decisions, Sudan (92%) and Eritrea (84%) had the highest proportion of claims granted in the YE June 2026, as shown in Figure 3. Some nationalities have a lower grant rate, with Bangladesh (11%), Syria (10%) and particularly India (1%) seeing a low proportion of claims being granted at initial decision.

The grant rate for Syrian nationals has decreased substantially, from 98% in the YE June 2025 to 10% in the latest year. Furthermore, the grant rate for Pakistani nationals fell considerably, from 46% to 25%.

In 2022, the share of asylum applications (main applicants) receiving a grant at the initial decision rose to a record high of 76%, which was much higher than in previous years. In 2018, the initial decision grant rate was 33% (Figure 5). Many factors could have driven the change. One contributing factor, but not the only explanation, was an increase in the number of nationalities whose asylum application grant rate is typically higher than average, such as Iranians, Syrians and Eritreans. From 2018 to 2022, the grant rate also increased for people of the same nationality in most cases (Figure 5).

This upward trend ended in 2023, when the percentage of successful applications at the initial decision stage dropped to 67%, declining further to 42% in 2025 (Figure 4).

The decline in overall grant rates may be linked to changes introduced by the Nationality and Borders Act 2022 (NABA), which raised the standard of proof in asylum claims. Applicants are now required to demonstrate, “on the balance of probabilities”, that they would face persecution if returned to their country of origin – a higher threshold than the previous “reasonable degree of likelihood” standard see ‘Understanding the Policy’ above). Among the top 10 nationalities of asylum seekers in 2025, all experienced rising grant rates between 2018 and 2022, followed by a decline from 2023, except for Sudanese nationals (Figure 5).

Since 2018, 95% of the people arriving on a small boat have claimed asylum. Of the 178,845 small boat arrivals claiming asylum since 2018, almost three-quarters (74% or 132,894) had received a substantive decision on their claim. Of these, 79,589 were granted asylum or some other protection status and 53,305 were refused (Table 1).

granted refugee status or other leave (grant rate) 79,589 72,236 (60%)

Withdrawn / Received an administrative outcome 33,413 31,495

Some nationalities have relatively high asylum grant rates (for example, 86% of Eritreans who arrived in 2025 via small boat were granted at initial decision), whereas others have much lower grant rates (for example, 34% for Afghans).

For claims between 2007 and 2022, the grant rate when based on the latest decision was, on average, 20 percentage points higher than when based on the initial decision.

Figure 4 shows that the grant rate at the latest outcome, following appeals and reconsiderations, was between 8 and 29 percentage points higher than the initial grant rate for each year of claim between 2007 and 2022.

HM Courts and Tribunal Service (HMCTS) publish data on appeals in their quarterly tribunal statistics release. The data shows that waiting times for asylum related appeals have grown, with the average wait being over a year. This means that many asylum claims from recent years that have received a decision and gone to appeal may not yet have received an appeal outcome.

Data on appeals was not available at the time of data extraction for this release, due to ongoing work as immigration data transitions to a new case working system. Updated data will be included in a future edition of the Immigration system statistics release.

Around two fifths (38%) of the 7,500 cases determined at a hearing or on the papers were allowed/granted, although this varied by case type (39% of Asylum/Protection, 42% of Human Rights and 26% of EEA Free Movement appeals were allowed/granted).

In the FTTIAC, the mean time taken to clear appeals across all categories was at 65 weeks in the latest quarter, 13 weeks longer compared to the same period a year ago. The mean time for Asylum/Protection was 72 weeks, Human Rights was 74 weeks and EEA Free Movement was 48 weeks.

HMCTS-published data shows that the open Asylum/Protection/Revocation of Protection caseload in the First-tier Tribunal (Immigration and Asylum Chamber) has increased from 6,319 at the end of June 2022 to 87,450 at the end of March 2026 (latest available data at time of publication).

In the YE June 2026, 16,265 people had their asylum claims withdrawn, a 11% decrease compared to the previous year. Of these withdrawals in the latest year, 79% were implicit withdrawals.

Although withdrawn cases have generally been resolved more quickly than both positive and negative grants, this trend became much more pronounced between 2021 and 2023. In 2022, 44% of withdrawals took place within six months, compared with just 4% of grants (Figure 8). In 2023, the government updated its guidance, expanding the criteria under which a claim could be withdrawn, although withdrawal numbers had already begun to rise before the change.

The recognition rate at the EU level, i.e. the share of all positive decisions among the total number of decisions, was 39% for first instance decisions. For final decisions following an appeal or review, the recognition rate was 21%. These rates include both international (i.e. refugee status and subsidiary protection) and national protection status (humanitarian status based on national legislation).

Among the 5 citizenships with the highest number of first instance decisions in 2025, Venezuelans (92%), Afghans (73%) and Turks (13%) had the highest recognition rates.

Since 2018, the UK has had higher grant rates than the EU for most of the top nationalities seeking protection in the UK. As grant rates have fallen in the UK, the gap between UK and EU outcomes has narrowed—although in 2024 it remained substantially higher for Iranian, Pakistani, Sudanese, and Vietnamese nationals (Figure 5). The exception is Afghan asylum seekers, who had much lower grant rates in the UK (51%) compared with the EU (81%) in 2024.

Overall, the UK’s grant rate in 2024 (47%) was slightly below the EU average (51%). The overall grant rate figure is shaped by the composition of asylum flows – particularly the extent to which people from higher-grant-rate nationalities are more likely to apply in the UK or the EU.

First instance decisions on applications by type of decision, citizenship, age and sex - annual aggregated data

IER_D03: Initial decisions on asylum claims from small boat arrivals, by arrival date, 2018 Q1 to 2025 Q4 - dataset

Data for 2001 relates to main applicants only and does not include dependants. Quarterly data for dependants begins in 2002.

Due to improvements in data quality and processing, the totals for 2001-2009, while largely similar, should not be directly compared to those found in the previously published as_01_q, as_02_q, and as_08_q.

Asy_D01: Asylum claims, 2001 Q1 to 2026 Q2 - dataset

Asylum applicants by type, citizenship, age and sex - annual aggregated data

Population change - Demographic balance and crude rates at national level

Asy_D02: Asylum initial decisions, 2001 Q1 to 2026 Q2 - dataset

Asy_D04: Outcome analysis of asylum claims, 2007-2025 - dataset

Table_FIA_3 - First-tier Tribunal (Immigration and Asylum Chamber) - Number of appeals determined at hearing or on paper, by outcome category and case type, 2007/08 to Q1 2026/27